Nonferrous Metals: Tin fundamentals have improved but demand has not improved

Author: Zhao Source: China Merchants Securities basic metal Profile: Last week, the polarization of non-ferrous metals, copper, zinc, nickel slashed, respectively, fell 6.18%, 5.71%, 5.41%. Lead and tin maintain high, the price of zero, aluminum rose slightly.　　Inflation expectations have made gold withstand inflation and gold prices have remained high. Tin Price A single show is not the upturn in demand: tin since the end of March from the low point of 9965 dollar rebound, the rebound has reached 40%, tin price rebound lag behind other metals, which let the market doubt whether the fundamental changes in tin itself. But by looking at the data, we did not see fundamental improvements. We think that one of the latest manifestations of tin is the spread of Chinese imports, which is due to supply problems.　　There is no real improvement in demand. Restrictions on supply in Indonesia, China's import pull is the reason for the recent rise in tin prices: The Shanghai-Wuxi high premium to Lenci stimulated the growth of tin imports, March China's imports of tin increased significantly. Indonesia's tin exports fell 22% to 6000 tonnes in April, and the production of Indonesian tin Enterprises continued until 5-June due to the erosion of the inventory of the coastal tin enterprises. The market for electronic components is still depressed, thus suppressing the demand of the solder market.　　The International Tin Research Association says the global tin market will have a modest surplus of 5000-10000 tonnes by 2009, as demand has slowed more than supply. Copper is supported by downstream processing, still maintain high: due to the 5 June copper market consumption season, the copper market downstream processing enterprises orders good, operating rate continued to rebound, copper smelting operating rate of 73%, compared with the same period last year 88.6% still underemployment, but the copper tube, cable and strip foil operating rate and last year's cycle flat. Copper Bar Enterprises in March, the operating rate has been basically restored, according to the Antaike survey, the economic crisis on China's copper rod enterprises have little impact on the domestic-dominated wire rod enterprises are largely unaffected. The demand for power cables in China has increased steadily, and the copper rods for power cables have maintained strong demand.