Normal Professor Zhong: Conditional families should buy more houses

Zhong, director of Financial Research Center of Beijing Normal University and famous economist, spoke at the Taihu forum. Photograph: Caspian Sea China Economic network Nanjing December 14 December 12, Beijing Normal University Financial Research Center director, famous economist Zhong came to Nanjing, visited the "Taihu forum."　　In the 2010 China's economic and financial trends are what, there will be inflation, and around the Taihu Lake, nearly hundreds of entrepreneurs and managers have carried out in-depth discussions. Zhong that from a global perspective, the financial crisis triggered by the subprime crisis has ended and the global economy is in a weak state of recovery.　　In the "L", "w", "U" and "V" views of the Chinese economy, he believes that "V" will run through the year 2009 and 2010. "China's 4 trillion economic recovery plan and 10 industrial revitalization plans, even without local government, are about the equivalent of 11% of GDP in 2008, and the overall investment in Barack Obama's economic revival plan is about $780 billion trillion, equivalent to about 6% of U.S. GDP." But China's economy has not been as big a crisis as the US, just an economic state, suddenly hungry, overcapacity, and then the Chinese government hit two strong hearts, this year and next two years to invest 2 trillion, equivalent to 6% of GDP, so the 2010 China's economic trend is definitely ' V-shaped '.　　"Zhong said. According to the Chinese economic Network reporter, the central bank in the implementation of easy monetary policy environment, this year, China's new credit scale of about 10 trillion. Industry experts estimate that the size of China's new credit next year is around 8 trillion. Around the size of the new credit scale, academics and the industry have been arguing about "inflationary expectations". Zhong that there will be no serious inflation in China next year. Inflation will come mainly from the base-period effect of deflation in 2009, the adjustment of the prices of municipal public services such as agricultural products and supply and water supply in 2010, as well as the external input factors, including the impact of higher commodity prices, such as crude oil, non-ferrous metals and black, on China's three aspects. According to his forecast, next year China's CPI is about 3% to 3.5% a year, of which CPI may be over 5% in the third quarter, so it is only likely to usher in moderate inflation.