Chinese consumer Price index (CPI) announced today, analysts generally believe that the November CPI positive for the year will be no suspense-the role of warping factors and weather factors, the CPI 9 consecutive months of negative growth has finally ended, its year-on-year rise will not be less than 0.5%. CPI rose by no less than 0.5%? Tang Jianwei, senior macro analyst at the Bank of Communications Finance Research Center, saw a sharp 0.8% rise in November over last month, leading to a sharp rebound in CPI year-on-year. "On the other hand, since November, China has experienced a large area of cooling and rain and snow weather, food prices have increased significantly." "The two work together make November CPI will be positive." Tang Jianwei According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Ministry of Commerce monitoring data forecasts, November CPI year-on-year increase between 0.6%~0.9%, will be the first positive after nine consecutive months of negative growth. Sun, chief economist at Nomura Securities China, also said that November would reproduce inflation due to the lower base effect and the recent rise in consumer price chain prices. In addition, the National Information Center Economic Forecasting Department deputy director Changbaoliang forecast, November China's CPI will certainly be positive, probably between the 0.5%~0.6%. Hyperinflation is unlikely "with the end of a seasonal rebound in food prices, a narrowing of the decline in non-food prices and the disappearance of the negative effects of October, CPI will continue to rise." Tang Jianwei predicts that the annual CPI increase is around 0.8%. Sun said China's CPI inflation would remain modest until 2011, and that the massive overcapacity in the manufacturing sector and the rapid rise in labour productivity should keep CPI inflation under control. He said that if there are no other sudden factors, 2010 year's CPI year-on-year Rise of about 4%, there is little likelihood of hyperinflation. However, Sun cautioned that the risk of serious asset price inflation was rising as ample liquidity could trigger inflationary expectations. Moreover, because its economic fundamentals are far better than most other economies, China will attract more capital inflows later this year, which could bring more liquidity to the economy.
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