O2O and Big Data: The source of the next round of capital bubbles

VC is now in the dead, after the Qing group founder Gavin Hand of a group of data shows that VC total investment in the first three quarters fell 60-70%,VC raise capital fell 70%; 39051.html "> Total investment fell 40%, fundraising fell 70%. Perhaps as he says: "The VC/PE industry has not been as stressed as this year for the past 5 years." ”

Jingwei China founder Zhang Ying is blunt:

1 more than 50% of the investment institutions will shut down 2) more than 70% of the industry staff will be retired, trade 3 15% of the investment institutions will earn 85% of the exit return 4) Young people to think clearly, not suitable for investment early change, don't waste time.

Whether it is the expenditure or raise, the cash level of the flow is gradually slowed, the big guy also sent a signal to sing, but whether it means VC winter has come? Obviously not! Because the investment halo effect is able to take advantage of the bad currency wash, the "good money" what do they expect? Must be the next round of bubbles coming!

Why do you say that?

On the one hand, at the level of capital reserves, excellent VC funds are still abundant. 2010 China VC Dollar Fund for the first time exceeded Israel, while the dollar funds are usually 7+2 or even 8+2 model, based on the investment cycle in the allocation of funds, it is clear that the 2010 raised funds did not run out of the electricity business bubble. In 2011, in addition to Ding Hui in the large funds, other companies did not have fund-raising behavior. Given the relatively small amount of investment this year, it can be seen that the quality of funds is still a small number of funds.

On the other hand, LP's pressure is big. Capital liquidity is poor, not only in the first market, the two-tier market is the same, and no matter how the trend of the LP will still need to spend every year percent management fees. So for VC GP, money must be delivered out, then a new bubble is clearly sufficient and necessary, no bubble, also means that there is no fund of the homeopathy, thus forming the momentum of investment.

How can it be enough to blow bubbles up, and sometimes what will make them? It now seems to require the following three endorsements:

First of all, need to activate the two-tier market. Investment in the first tier of the market is lukewarm, partly also affected by the closure of the level two market window. With YY listing, the following two quarters, if there are 2-3 companies can be in Hong Kong, the United States successful IPO, it will be enough to initially boost investors confidence in the two-tier market.

Second, the opportunity to look for bubbles in O2O and large numbers. Why not cloud computing and E-commerce? For cloud computing, there is a "investment target" of the gene, but because the government involved too much lead to inefficient market, while Ali, Baidu and other giants are also ready to send, small and medium-sized enterprises are difficult to find opportunities, but also lost the meaning of investment. E-commerce is due to the bubble formed in the last round of investment, investors will be more rational view, the new money is hard to wash old money. Anti-View O2O, the current line is still not effectively closed, if you want to O2O formation of closed-loop, it needs is the investment of large-scale capital, at the same time O2O involved in a larger range, in addition to the Giants still have enough to think about space. And big data, first already in the United States has been proved to be a reasonable model, considering that the government did not involve them, the market efficiency is high, at the same time there is a technical threshold, which happens to be the most preferred VC.

Finally, at the end of next year, there will be a new round of bubble blowing period. Judging from the time dimension, in 2010, the fund-raising, at 2013 to 3721.html ">2014 will enter the early VC investment anxiety period, if as mentioned above, in the first half of next year's two-tier market for a certain, the second half will be destined to become a new bubble breeding opportunity."

If you choose between O2O and large data, the success of the former depends more on the management of the operation, while the latter can tell the story by the concept of technology. The latter is undoubtedly VC more interested. So the next round of bubbles most likely by large data this wave of waves and O2O this neap and stirred but "good money" VC are you ready?