October Foreign trade data announced export or slow imports will be a big rebound

The October trade figures for the Guo Lichen Group of 20 Seoul Summit and the APEC Yokohama Summit are set to add a bit of background to the discussions on the global trade balance. "The U.S. foreign trade data for October is expected to be roughly the same as last month, but the deficit will improve slightly. "But a small improvement in one month will not lessen its domestic criticism of the renminbi and China's trade policy," said one industry insider on the U.S. stock exchange.　　"He believes that the renminbi exchange rate and the US quantitative easing policy will become the central topic of two summits."　　For China's October single month of foreign trade data to be released today, it is widely expected that export growth will slow further and imports may rise sharply.　　As for the next 3 months or even half a year of foreign trade prospects, the recently concluded Canton Fair seems to herald: China's exports are not optimistic.　　Export or slow import rebound September China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers index (PMI) of the new export Order Component index of 56.3%, continue to maintain a high level, which seems to imply that from the fundamentals, external demand remains basically stable. Macro-source securities forecasts that a slowdown in major economies will depress China's exports by October. Given the strong competitiveness of China's exports, the impact is basically manageable, but export growth will still show a small drop.　　Imports are set to rebound 4.5% per cent from last month, affected by a lower base and a recent surge in international commodity prices.　　Gaohua Securities forecast a year-on-year increase in exports from October to 23% from 25.1% per cent in September.　　Societe Generale, senior economist Lu County, said to our correspondent, October exports year-on-year growth will fall into the 17.3%~21.3% range, median 19.3%, a significant drop in the last month 5.8%. Lu County said that with the end of the Christmas goods delivery peak, China's export container transport market overall demand has slowed. In early October, major route tariffs fell.　　In mid-October, the overall demand for China's export container transport market rebounded, and the freight volumes of all main routes were significantly higher than before. Because the Baltic comprehensive Freight Index (BDI) did not extend the September late fall trend, but rebounded all the way, as of October 22 compared to the end of September, the 11.2% increase, Lu County, October China's imports may have rebounded, year-on-year growth will fall into the 38%~42% interval, median 40%,　　Surged 15.9% from last month. Canton Fair or predict the future export is not optimistic 4th, the 108th Canton Fair closed.　　As a barometer of China's foreign trade, the autumn fair in the second half of the year is generally considered to outline the four quarter and the next quarter of the export situation.　　Haitong Securities Macro Securities senior analyst Wang Hui told this reporter, the canton fair has 200,000 overseas buyers, compared to the last 2.3%, this data and China and the international economic cycle coincide, showing the global economic growth in the second half of the impact of the slowdown in international trade. Next year, he said, the renminbi would appreciate and passThe cost pressure caused by the expansion of goods will still be the main problem of export enterprises, in addition, China's economic restructuring is bound to lead to the transformation of export product structure, this transition pressure will gradually emerge from next year.　　Overall, China's exports are not optimistic. Although the specific transaction amount of the Canton Fair has not yet been announced, the Deputy secretary general of the Canton Fair, Liu Jianjun, said that the trade fair turnover was slightly higher than the previous year, but still did not return to the level before the 2008 financial crisis.　　The highest level of turnover in the Canton Fair appeared in April 2008, at $38 billion trillion, while the last transaction was 34.3 billion dollars. Accordingly, Wang Hui expects the turnover of this Canton fair to be 35 billion ~360 billion dollars.