OECD: China may have bottomed out as early as January this year

Wang Shifeng, the OECD's April Integrated Lead index (CLI) released yesterday, showed that the pace of global economic deterioration was slowing-though it was hard to see whether the slowdown was temporary or sustainable.　　Most of the OECD countries, including Canada, Italy and the UK, have a strong signal that the economy is likely to be bottoming out. The optimistic signal on the eve of the G8 April oced's CLI index was 93.2, up 0.5 points higher than last month.　　While the current CLI index is down 8.3 points from last April, it has risen for the third consecutive month since February, and has moved away from the economic lows of January. In general, the CLI index grew to an economic expansion of more than 100, reducing the economic downturn by more than 100, reducing the economic slowdown below 100, and growing to economic recovery under 100.　　The economy may now be in the middle of a recovery. The OECD said that while further confirmation was needed, such positive inflection points were already appearing in most oced countries ' CLI components. Germany, Japan and the United States have seen positive signs in the economy compared with last month.　　In April, the US CLI index increased by 0.2 points from March, Japan increased by 0.1, Britain increased by 0.7, Canada increased by 0.4, and the eurozone increased by 0.8. The OECD judged that a possible inflection point had already emerged in Canada, France, Italy and Britain.　　Among them, France and Italy's bottom of the economy may have appeared at the end of last year, now a faster recovery, is close to distinguish between the economic downturn and economic slowdown in the balance point. In April, the data on the CLI in Japan, Germany and the United States also rose, but the rally was not strong, so the OECD gave them the judgment that they were still slowing.　　As for the BRIC countries China, India, Brazil and Russia, the April CLI index also showed signs of improvement. This Saturday, the G8 summit will be held in Italy, the OECD yesterday released data is undoubtedly a long absence of exciting news.　　Japan's Kyodo news agency yesterday even quoted sources as saying that the G8 finance ministers may be at the summit on the global economic situation to send upbeat remarks.　　A possible inflection point in a multinational economy some countries ' data may confirm the OECD's judgment. The positive changes were confirmed by the French central bank's May survey of Industry and Services, released this week. France's food and auto industries have grown and services have stopped shrinking, and the French central bank immediately raised its second-quarter GDP forecast to 0.5%.　　The French central bank, of course, cautions that the outlook for the industry in the coming months remains grim.　　In Italy, industrial productivity, which will be announced 10th this month, is expected to change from 4.6% last month to 0.5%, as production orders recovered. But for Japan, despite a modicum of recovery from overseas orders, the country's foreign trade is still at a deep halt. This week's announcement of April withoutThe adjusted current account surplus was 630.5 billion yen, down 54.5% from the previous year. Like Japan, the export-oriented economy of Germany is still a lot of trouble.　　Germany's exports were 63.8 billion euros in April, down 28.7% from a year earlier, the biggest year-on-year decline since record 1950, according to German foreign trade figures released yesterday. The good news in the bad news is that last month America's manufacturing contraction decreased, according to data released by the American Institute of Supply Management,　　The May manufacturing activity index rose from 40.1 in April to 42.8, especially as the New Order index climbed to 51.1, the first increase in sales since November 2007.　　China's January or the bottom of the BRIC countries are now in a very different situation. Oced judged that China could have bottomed out as early as January this year. China's CLI index increased by 0.9 points in April, reaching 94.3.　　China's own PMI index also has a similar conclusion, but the economic inflection point may have been looming last November. The OECD takes industrial output as the main indicator in the production of CLI data.　　Sun, China's chief economist for Nomura Securities, said the OECD's CLI index, which generally leads China's industrial growth for 5-6 months, could reach a 15% per cent year-on-year rate of growth in October if the composite indicator is correctly predicted.　　But oced that India's economy is still slowing, while Russia and Brazil are "severely slowing".　　Russia's April industrial output fell 17% from a year earlier, with soaring unemployment and rising domestic banks ' bad debts, which have removed the recent relief from oil prices and higher Russian equities. Brazil's industrial output has risen for the 4th consecutive month in April, but the median result of the Brazilian Central bank's survey of economists is that the Brazilian economy is expected to shrink by 0.73% this year, the most significant contraction in 19 years.