OECD's first increase in growth forecasts for advanced economies in June 07

OECD, the first to raise growth expectations for advanced economies since June 2007: The worst is over. 24th, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) announced that advanced economies would shrink this year as badly as they had expected, and that growth would be achieved next year. The IMF will also raise expectations of an update and expansion of its March report, in which the OECD estimates that 30 member countries, mainly advanced economies, will fall by 4.1% per cent this year, and 0.7% next year. This is the OECD's first increase in economic growth forecasts since June 2007 (before the financial crisis).　　In its March report, the OECD predicted that GDP would fall by 4.3% and 0.1% per cent in 30 member countries this year and next. According to Xinhua overseas financial reports, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its new expected report on July 7, may also be expected to raise expectations. Olivierj.blanchardzu, the IMF's chief economist, said in the French Echo, published on 24th, that the world had avoided the recession and the collapse of the banking industry, and that the severe downturn in recent quarters had ended.　　The economies of the developed countries will gradually end their contraction by the end of 2009 and resume growth thereafter.　　He also said he had not found any new bubbles in the financial markets. The IMF and the OECD have different judgments from the World Bank. The World Bank has just published a report on the outlook for the global economy on 22nd, saying the global economy will have a negative growth of 2.9% this year, a 1.7% worse than the previously expected negative growth.　　This led to a sharp fall in European and American equities that day, and the market participants angrily accused the World Bank of "lack of professional forecasting standards." The job market will still deteriorate. It is noteworthy that, while optimistic, the OECD also pointed to the fragility of the economic recovery.　　The OECD said the recovery would be sluggish and fragile for some time, and could be undermined in two cases: a sharp rise in bond yields as a result of ballooning government debt and rising unemployment, which has slowed consumer spending faster than expected. The OECD estimates that the average annual unemployment rate for its members in 2010 will climb to a high of 9.8%, with the average unemployment rate at the end of 2010 at 9.9%, the highest level since the 70.　　By the end of 2010, unemployment in OECD countries will expand sharply from 37.2 million at the end of 2008 to 57 million. At the end of 2008, the OECD member countries had an average unemployment rate of 6.8%.　　In April this year, this figure has risen to 7.8%. "The unemployment problem will continue to weigh heavily on the country's economy over the long term."　　"The experience of the economic downturn shows that the recovery of the job market lags behind economic growth for a long time," said OECD secretary Angel Gellia. The OECD suggests that the Government should, through financial support, help those unemployed andDisadvantaged groups of low-income families, and to address the growing problem of youth unemployment. Moreover, in order to help the unemployed to increase their skills, the government should also endeavour to provide training opportunities.　　And for the most difficult unemployed, the Government should also provide targeted employment opportunities and grant payments. The OECD advises the ECB to lower its benchmark interest rate further, hinting that the Fed and the BOJ should not raise interest rates 2011 years ago.　　The OECD says central banks should maintain unconventional monetary easing until the economy recovers and financial markets return to normal.　　But the OECD also urged Governments to draw up an exit strategy for stimulus measures as soon as possible, fearing that an uncontrolled public deficit could cause big problems in the future.　　A big increase in China's growth rate when it comes to China, the OECD expects China and other large non-OECD economies to rebound more quickly. The OECD last year estimated GDP growth of 6.3% in 2010 and an increase of 8.5% per cent in China.　　The two figures were raised sharply to 7.7% and 9.3% respectively. The OECD believes China will still have room to loosen fiscal policy further next year if infrastructure construction fails to drive broader economic growth.　　The new policy should focus on social spending. The OECD reminds China that "because of the lack of transparency in the financing of local infrastructure investment, the overall quality of bank loans is likely to deteriorate", which could make GDP growth less than expected.