On investment Morgan: Two quarter will be the key rate hike time window

This week, a rumor of interest rate hike, the already low walk of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market again volume fell, lost 3,200 points. Although the impact on the stock market is more direct is the CPI, but the effect of interest rate increases on the formation of capital adequacy also affects the sensitive nerves of the stock market. What will be the market in 2010, the rate hike has undoubtedly become one of the factors that need attention.　　This week, Xu Yunque, a deputy investment director at Morgan Fund, who has 8 years of experience, said in an interview with reporters, "the two quarter may be the key time window for interest rate hikes," but even if the rate hike will take a small step, and will be based on the economic performance of the camera choice, 2010 liquidity will remain abundant. " In 2009, 4 trillion investment, the top ten industrial revitalization plans, the promotion of export tax rebates, home appliances to the countryside and other measures issued, the scale of our credit has been over 10 trillion. Xu Yunque points out that 2010 will be the most crucial year for structural adjustment, and that "China's macro economy will reap a reward". The reasons are as follows: exports, with the expansion of economic consumption in the United States and Europe, increased, double-digit growth is expected in 2010; investment growth will fall, from crisis-era to balanced growth, consumption will remain the main engine of steady growth, and the reform of income structure will accelerate; monetary policy will camera, fiscal policy will focus on "　　Tune structure ". So he thinks investors should focus on two main lines this year, first, in the 2010, the opportunity of the industry, which is mainly the urban consumption of the upgrade-driven large consumer sectors (such as automobiles, home appliances, commerce, tourism, food, etc.) and financial services sector, in addition to the Government to adjust the economic structure of the emerging strategic industries (such as Low-carbon,　　New materials, pharmaceuticals, it, etc.) and equipment manufacturing that represents technology upgrades; the other line is the industry that has staged opportunities in the 2010, including upstream resources, regional economy, the integration of central enterprises and so on. In Thursday, with the national macro data, the Shanghai and Shenzhen cities were boosted and rebounded. And the data is considered to have a greater impact on the stock market is the CPI. For the 2010 CPI and PPI, Xu Yunque that the base factor will be driven by a gradual rebound in 2010 CPI is expected to be in the year 2.5%, of which year-on-year data may be in the 3%-4%,2010 annual PPI forecast at 3%-5%.　　This makes the two quarter a key time window for interest rate hikes, but even if the rate hike is a small step, and according to the economic camera choice, liquidity remains abundant. He further analyzed that, after the economy entered a stable growth track, the main focus of fiscal policy will be on the adjustment of economic structure, water, electricity, gas and other elements of price adjustment may accelerate, promote energy conservation and emission reduction and industrial upgrading, of which the eastern region to the western region of industrial transfer, industry access to private capital open,　　Industrial upgrading in the east and promotion of new industrial policies will accelerate. It is worth mentioning that Xu Yunque was also the helm of the Morgan Industry's rotary fund. As the "vanguard" of the new fund this year, the fund took a "deadline issuance" strategy, which ended this week. Xu YunqueLu, the fund focused on the industry rotation layout, positioning in the growth of the pioneer and domestic demand power between the stock positions 60%-95%, of which the dominant sector accounted for 80% of the net worth. (Chang)