Only the third quarter of the goods will increase the flow rate seems to start to slow

based on an analysis of the gains in July of independent user visits (Quarter-on-quarter growth of 29%), only the third-quarter flow rate appears to be slowing . Based on history, the increase in the number of independent user visits means an increase in the quantity of orders. As China's online flash market leader, only products will still have a lot of room for growth. For example, its apparel business, which accounts for 55% of its revenue, has a share of only 5.1% in China's discounted apparel retail market.

July Independent user access growth: Based on our analysis of the research firm comscore data, we believe that the only product in the third quarter began to slow as expected. The number of independent user visits in July was 59.8 million, up 29% per cent compared with June. By contrast, the June chain rose by as much as 155%, which may have been affected by the summer downturn, but the product will have similar experience before.

Order growth slowed: we expect the only goods will be the third quarter of the order will reach 11.5 million, the chain growth of 4.6%, the increase is lower than the second quarter 25% of the chain gains. Given the decline in the number of independent user visits mentioned earlier, the slowdown in order volume is understandable. It should be noted that this is only July data and cannot fully represent the entire quarterly outcome of the third quarter ending September.

Adjusted performance forecasts: We expect the goods will reach $369 million trillion in the third quarter, while Wall Street expects $366 million trillion. Diluted earnings per share will reach $0.19 trillion, while Wall Street expects 0.22 dollars.

Valuation: We continue to maintain the "overweight" rating of the only commodities stock, while maintaining a 51 dollar target share price unchanged. (Li Ming)