Overall improvement of downstream demand the return of the king of Nonferrous Metals
Source: Internet
Author: User
KeywordsAluminum industry demand growth non-ferrous metal Prices
After nearly 3 months in the horizontal plate, the colored plate group soared last week, once the "King" returned. With the overall upturn in demand in the lower reaches of the economy, metal prices rebounded sharply, in the middle and long term, in the context of the rising domestic economic recovery is expected to continue to be the "King", in the short term, the dollar factor is equally noteworthy. Investors are advised to pay attention to the investment opportunities of copper and aluminum in sub industries. Lower-colored downstream demand overall better 09 years ago 5 months of major non-ferrous metal production has increased, but the chain data show that the domestic downstream industry demand continued to rebound, and some industries year-on-year data is better than the same period in 08, such as domestic car production data. Analysts generally believe that in the national "4 trillion investment" and "Top ten industrial revitalization planning" policy on domestic demand, China's demand for non-ferrous metals growth is still worth looking forward to, domestic capacity utilization will gradually improve, so the price of non-ferrous Metals is expected to continue to go higher. Days congenial analysts said from the historical data of non-ferrous metal downstream industry, the second half of the output decreased obviously only air-conditioning production and household refrigerator production, which mainly affect the demand for copper, but for the time being can not predict "home appliances to the countryside" and this year's overheating temperature can effectively stimulate the second half of the production of products. and the aluminum industry closely related to the real estate industry data and automotive industry data continues to exceed market expectations, these are the aluminum industry downstream demand for a comprehensive start laid a solid foundation. CICC analysts speculate that the June aluminum industry start rate has returned to more than 80% levels. Based on the overall recovery of downstream demand, CICC raised its demand for aluminum in 2009 and 2010, rising from 1.4% and 6.7% to 3.8% and 8% respectively. May profit significantly improved in 2009 1―5 month of non-ferrous metals industry profitability significantly improved, the varieties look, the most stable gold, copper, lead and zinc began to profit, aluminum is still in the loss. The first May non-ferrous metal mining industry, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry total profits amounted to 17.3 billion yuan, down 71% year-on-year, and 2009 years ago 2 months this figure is only 83 million yuan. One non-ferrous metal rolling processing industry to achieve total profit of 8.953 billion yuan, down 14.78%, the most stable; nonferrous metal mining industry to achieve total profit of 7.659 billion yuan, down 52.17%, recover faster The total profit of nonferrous metal smelting industry is 3.304 billion yuan, which is still in a loss state (aluminum smelting industry loses 5.171 billion yuan, which drags down the whole smelting industry). At the same time, from the 2009 3―5 month data, non-ferrous metal mining industry to achieve total profit of 5.646 billion yuan, down 51.05% Common non-ferrous Metal smelting industry total profit of 784 million yuan, to achieve overall profitability; common non-ferrous metal calendering processing industry total profit of 6.911 billion yuan, the year-on-year growth of 14.36%. In addition, the days of congenial through the comparison of historical data mapping, nonferrous metals industry as a whole and part of the small classificationIndustry's total profit year-on-year growth rate and pre-tax utilization rate in the 2009 years before the end of 2 months, almost a sharp rebound in 3―5 months. Short-term dollar factor can not be underestimated in the process of rapid rebound in non-ferrous metal prices, the impact of the dollar and the expected impact of the dollar's movements are not negligible, they play a role in fuelling. Since March 2009, when the United States began to implement "quantitative easing" monetary policy, the dollar index continued to fall, the market for the future dollar further depreciation seems to agree, inflation expectations are also more intense. Today, the market is divided on whether the Fed will continue to maintain quantitative easing. It is reported that 21st, Bernanke will be in the congressional hearings, he will explain how the Fed after an unprecedented monetary expansion, how to maintain a very low interest rate of exit. According to analysts, Mr Bernanke's possible strategy includes allowing the Fed to accept time deposits and steer banks to deposit their money instead of lending it out. If the hearing of Bernanke announced the withdrawal of quantitative easing policy, short-term support for the United States dollar, so that the expected reversal of the depreciation of the dollar, short-term will be a big blow to the commodity market, resulting in domestic non-ferrous metals prices and non-ferrous stocks plummeted. If Mr Bernanke chooses to continue the process of economic recovery by announcing the maintenance of quantitative easing, the rally in commodity prices will continue, leading to a strong continuation of the price of domestic non-ferrous metals and non-ferrous shares. However, regardless of Bernanke's final decision, the impact on the nonferrous metals industry is only short-term; in the domestic economic recovery, led by the Chinese and long-term non-ferrous plate will appear a continuous round of rising prices. 2009 years ago 5 months domestic major metal production growth 2008 domestic copper, zinc, aluminum capacity utilization data source: Day congenial Gu
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