Overseas copy bottom--where is the sovereign fund road

To go overseas to copy the bottom, to go overseas to copy the bottom of the financial turmoil after the impact of the beach, left is pie, or traps? Overseas gold, the Amoy is yellow sand, or gold?　　The world's top scholars, gathered in the "Today's Watch", the warlords, debate overseas copy of the bottom, "Today's Watch" blockbuster launch. The hottest topic for discussion right now is overseas investment. After the outbreak of the global financial crisis, many Chinese companies have discovered that the original international market in some distant acquisition targets, suddenly within reach, the acquisition of the price has become more and more attractive, the most notable is that in the domestic pause for nearly a year, CIC, this month again launched a plan for overseas investment, They decided to buy 1.2 billion of the $2.2 billion common stock that Morgan Stanley recently issued. As the sovereign fund of the country, CIC's move is almost a sign of the current Chinese capital overseas. Overseas investment Road, Chinese enterprises can really smooth sailing? Is it really a good time for lucrative to invest overseas? CCTV economic channel host Chen Weihong with the famous financial commentator he fan live link Shanghai Studio Andy Xie Common comment. Will CIC sail again?　　Is it a trap or a pie?　　He fan: To maintain and increase the value of the risk control. (Today's observer) heard the news that CIC had bought Morgan Stanley shares, and many in the investment community thought it was a passive replenishment. December 2007, CIC invested 5.6 billion of billions of dollars in Morgan Stanley's forced-equity bonds, which accounted for 9.86%, and then Morgan Stanley suffered a huge loss during the financial crisis, with Japan's Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group injecting money into it, and our original equity was diluted to about 7.68 %, after this increase, we have increased the share of Morgan Stanley to its original level of 9.86%. If we look at this as a business and whether it is enough to make money, I find it harder to judge, if it makes money, that it means that Morgan Stanley will have to restore its former glory.　　If it is not simply a business and is being laid out like a chess game, this piece may be meaningful, because now in the United States, the most advanced financial industry, the most far-reaching impact on U.S. policy is also the financial sector. Many people are saying that CIC has been losing money since its inception. Here I would like to say for them, CIC is not losing money, but it has not made a lot of money, is basically a profit and loss, there may be a slight surplus, so it is now starting to increase the need to invest overseas one reason. Why didn't you make a lot of money?　　One is because of bad luck catching up with the US financial crisis, almost all financial assets have been slashed in price, but CIC's investment strategy has also had some missteps, such as May 2007, when it rushed to invest in a private equity fund, the Blackstone Group, which lost money and became conservative immediately after losing money. We have to consider how to preserve and add value., but can not blindly be some of the cheaper assets now carried away, hurriedly to copy bottom.　　Money is the Chinese people's own sweat earned, so in the preservation, value-added, at the same time, how to do a good job of risk control, CIC must face a big challenge.　　Andy Xie: The price of CIC buying shares is a fair price, not a bottom. (today's observation commentator) CIC's bid to buy Morgan Stanley shares can not say is very cheap, but also not to say very expensive, the city net rate is almost one times, historically, the investment bank's market net rate is also 1.5 times times, now investment banks in a relatively depressed state, so the share price should be relatively low. Should be said to be a fair price, but not a bottom. Morgan Stanley's stock is at a low point of 9 dollars, and now, as America's financial industry trends are becoming clearer, there is a basic answer to who survives and who cannot survive. Morgan Stanley should be in a category that survives.　　So if the city net rate is one times, this share price is acceptable, but can not be said to account for a lot of cheap. CIC is still a small size for China, with $2 trillion trillion in foreign exchange reserves, equivalent to One-tenth of the size of CIC. Although there are so many sovereign funds in the world, the overall performance of these decades is comparatively poor. China is a new sovereign fund. But fortunately, although the establishment of the sovereign funds at the time of the highest market, so jumped into the loss of a little money, but the loss of money for China, or relatively small, if it is the market for this bubble, another two years,　　If China throws so much money into it, it will be disastrous. Invest overseas, take a bottom action, how to guard against risk?　　How to start the international strategic adjustment?　　Andy Xie: As a national investment agency, you should do more than you need to invest too much money. As a national investment agency, not a commercial financial institution, the risk is high if decisions are made every day. So I think its main focus should be on some passive, not-so-thoughtful investment, such as index funds in the stock market, which are very good liquidity in foreign countries, comparable to the U.S. Treasury market. The main principle is to look at the price, when the price is high, when the price is low when inhaled, the main measure of price is the city net rate, in the long run, the stock market is only one price is the city net rate, the average twice times in history is fair price, In the bull market 2.5 times times, in the bubble may be more than 3 times times, in the bear market 1.5 times times, now is 1.7, 1.8 times times, it is not cheap, now we are in a volatile phase,　　It will fall 1.5 times times, so I think this can be inhaled at a relatively low time and hold for a few years, if the price is too high to change.　　He fan: Foreign exchange Reserve investment departments should strengthen coordination and cooperation. Investment in foreign exchange reserves, I think it should go up to the countryThe height of the strategy, the coordination between the departments should be strengthened. A good example of a sovereign wealth fund is a government investment company in Singapore that specializes in foreign exchange reserves to make aggressive overseas investments. It was originally under the Singapore Monetary Authority, a small department dedicated to the operation of foreign exchange reserves, Singapore, in addition to the day-to-day, more conservative investment, the extra foreign exchange reserves, separate into another agency, with a different modus operandi to make positive investments, but also a strategic goal. For example, if Singapore is to set up a financial center, it will increase some investment in the financial sector, Singapore to establish a business center, it will increase some of the operating industry, the communications industry investment. One of the things that is going on in China is that there are more competing relationships between some government departments and even some business organizations in charge of foreign exchange investment. In this way, if every government department or financial institution, when investing abroad, is a scattered layout, it is easy for others to divide and conquer.　　Therefore, if we want to increase the management of foreign exchange reserves, more emphasis should be placed on coordination and division of labour, and there can be a unified national strategy.　　George Soros: China should put it into action. (Chairman of the LCC Soros Foundation board, observer for today) I think in fact, it is a good time for Chinese companies to learn from them even if they fail in the past.　　So I think we should put it into action now.　　Wang Qing: The macroeconomic environment provides a good opportunity for Chinese enterprises. ("Today's Observer", Morgan Stanley's chief economist for Greater China) foreign companies, some institutions, because of the damage in this financial crisis, they need money, and overall, from abroad, its asset prices are relatively cheap, so the formation of such a comparison, On the one hand, the uncertainty of international and domestic macroeconomic situation decreases, on the other hand, the overall strength of China's enterprises is not affected much.　　At the same time, the price of some foreign assets is more reasonable, in this case, I think it is indeed a very good macroeconomic environment, for our Chinese enterprises to buy some quality assets abroad, provides a good opportunity.　　Andy Xie: Chinese private enterprises should be encouraged to participate in international investment. The opportunity is always there, the question is what kind of organization, what kind of person to seek the opportunity most suitable. Financial investment is a very marketable thing, it is very difficult, so a government agency to do it is not easy. Investment strategy must be simple, transparent, do not need to do too many complex things, the more complex things the more easily lose money. The second is the strategic significance, is not the government to invest, can achieve its own purpose, I think not necessarily. Singapore is a very small place, its investment is not really successful, I think it is hard to say, and China if the full use of the country's funds to vote, often will cause the resistance of various countries in the world, should encourage private enterprises to the countryGo to work, participate in the world's rules of the game, so that China's private enterprises to grow up and support Chinese private enterprises to achieve China's strategic significance, may be easier to do well, the cost will be relatively low.　　He fan: Manage the foreign exchange reserve to cultivate the vision of the strategist. The CIC, a big asset, it is in operation, more like a guerrilla, is a gun to change a place, in the assessment, is also a sum of the calculation, that is, the transaction made money did not, the deal made money did not. To manage so much of China's foreign exchange reserves, businessmen need to be shrewd, but more to cultivate the vision of strategists, CIC should be more to do the battlefield commanders, more to see how the war on the battlefield is how to develop, so that can really let foreign exchange reserves play a role.