Pan Shiyi agree: Prices start to adjust after a year

"Housing prices start to adjust after a year" in Saturday, at Tsinghua University's School of Economics and Management held a "crack puzzle: Focus on China's macro Policy" forum, Li, Pan shiyi, Ma Xiao, gangming, lui and other academic circles, real estate industry, heavy figures began to collectively reflect on the property market puzzle to crack the　　Despite the serious differences between the parties, but including Li, Pan Shiyi and other academics and real estate giants have reached a "Tsinghua consensus": housing prices in a year will begin to adjust.　　Focus on one: whether house prices will be cut. Last year, the Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee, director of Tsinghua University's finance department, who accurately predicted China's economic "V" reversal, was full of confidence in the current round of market regulation. "Young people's discontent with rising prices has never been stronger," he said, "and the signals and promises made by policymakers in the property sector have never been so strong, and in 12 months to 18 months the price adjustment in China's property market will occur." "There is also a similar view of the Hong Kong Tech economics professor Lui," the mainland property market is almost 1997 years of the Hong Kong stage. Starting at the end of 1997, Hong Kong's housing prices began to slow down from the peak. I agree with the conclusion that the price may have to be adjusted after a year. "said Pan Shiyi, chairman of Soho China. However, Pan Shiyi believes that the recent introduction of relevant policies to accurately combat investment in the purchase of the House, the future volume will certainly reduce, and even the "check-out tide."　　However, at present 70% real estate listed companies hold tens of billions of dollars in cash, developers "too rich, developers in the short term the possibility of active price reduction." Focus on two: increase supply or adjust the expectation pan Shiyi that the current property market is only a "Band-Aid" formula, to solve the fundamental problem of high housing prices or land issues, "only the market supply large, to the price down."　　In fact, in addition to Pan Shiyi, many economists in the property market prescriptions will increase supply in the first place. In this respect, Li does not agree, "house and food, in addition to the basic housing needs, there is also investment and speculative demand, and investment and speculation needs to be controlled through the expected management." "Focus on three: whether the economy can get rid of the real estate dependence" last year's economic growth, basically rely on real estate and other promotion. It is very difficult for the policy to retreat slowly.　　Gangming, a researcher at the Institute of Economic Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said China's economy has moved away from its reliance on the real estate industry as China's economy recovers strongly. Gangming said, "If the measures to control real estate, resulting in two percentage points of economic decline, economic growth at the end of the slide to 10% is acceptable." Put prices down to make the economy more stable and sustainable. Ma Xiao, deputy dean of the National Development and Reform Commission's Macroeconomic Research Institute, discussed personal thinking, "since last year, China's economic growth has been driven mainly by a few big chunks, such as real estate and automobiles, and in the coming years China's GDP growth will have direct and indirect demand for real estate growth." So our aim is not to put the real estateHit the trough, is to remove the ' cancer tumor '. ”