Pan Shiyi's fall on the property market in Shanghai

-Reporter Liu Chang borrowed a blog and Soho China published semi-annual reports, Pan Shiyi said that "the second half of the price will fall in prices," after the recent "Financial Real Estate Forum" held in Shanghai, has rarely judged the price of Pan Shiyi the third time to sing down the property market, he believes that prices should be adjusted at least to the level of early 2009. August 29, Pan Shiyi published on his personal blog, "a number of important factors affecting the future housing prices," the article, said "in the next year, China's housing market prices and turnover will fall." In the "Financial Real Estate Forum", Pan Shiyi again elaborated his own judgment, he pointed out that the current property market policy has four major changes. First, the central policy emphasizes to increase the construction of affordable housing, the introduction of the two 50% indicators and the accountability system is bound to change the current supply pattern of the real estate market; second, the CBRC issued a "three guidelines", that is, the developers of loans to directly entrusted to the construction units, material suppliers, exacerbated the developer's financial tension, The developer in the hands of the original loose money into a dead money, especially for those who have low gross margin, sales construction process is slow, in the past arrears of construction units and material suppliers of money developers will have greater impact; third, in accordance with the Ministry of Housing and the establishment of the pre-sale revenue supervision measures, the city's rules and specific policies are in succession, General real Estate enterprises operating funds in more than 50% from the pre-sale income, the pre-sale revenue supervision, phased lending, but also the developers of the loose money into a dead money; four, clean up idle land, for several years the government has been emphasizing the clean up of idle land, but almost no progress,　　Recently, the Ministry of Land and Resources has released a list of more than 2,800 vacant land, showing a great deal of determination, even if 8%, 10% of the idle land to recover, will cause a great shock to the market, the result is to increase the supply of housing in the market. Pan Shiyi said the above four policies are expected to be implemented in four quarters, will result in two aspects: "One is to increase the supply of housing in the market, the increase in supply directly affects the market price; the second is to aggravate the real estate business capital tension, developers to reduce the premise is the enterprise capital tight, no money, developers have to reduce prices. "At the same time," real estate investment increased by 38.1% in the first half of this year, reaching the highest level, and increasing the amount of construction will increase the supply of housing. "Compared to Pan Shiyi's pessimism, the famous economic commentator Tan said that her view of the current property market is" neither too pessimistic, nor blind optimism.　　"She believes that in the past, real estate developers of the gold 10 although the past, but the future there is silver 10 years; The recent period of Shanghai, Hangzhou and Shenzhen, the housing market has gradually resumed, prices and turnover has rebounded, this is not another round of the harbinger of price rises? To this, Pan Shiyi thinks, these several cities are more special, cannot reflect the situation of the whole country. Nationally, GDP growth, employment pressure, local revenue, bank profitability and people's livelihood askProblems in a real estate industry, these pressures beyond the industry to withstand the limit, which can be reflected in a number of indicators, such as the low rate of return on rent, land prices more expensive than the price and so on.　　"I still believe in common sense, these indicators reflect that the current price level is really too expensive, and this round of regulation of the Government's determination is very large, the introduction of regulatory measures are also very specific and operational, this is the first few rounds of regulation of different places, at least in the next year the market will maintain a ' volume price with the fall ' situation. [Related news] Some banks in Shanghai closed three sets of loans-reporter Guo Wenjing recently, the Agricultural Bank of Shanghai Branch officially released, will suspend the third set of mortgage business.　　At the same time, the reporter found in the actual investigation, Shanghai ICBC, Everbright Bank and so on have closed the third set of mortgage business, the business outlets have not accepted the customer application. According to the Shanghai branch of ABC, Shanghai Agricultural Bank of China received the notice of the third set of mortgage business, according to the spirit of the notice, the Agricultural Bank will suspend processing three sets of loans.　　At present, AgBank does not have a clear timetable for opening the third set of mortgages. In the four major state-owned banks, the reporter learned that ICBC has also suspended the third set of mortgages, the current business outlets have not accepted customer applications.　　Meanwhile, in small and medium-sized banks, Everbright Bank also said that the third set of loans has been temporarily canceled, and foreign banks, Citigroup has refused to issue a third set of mortgages. Reporters from ICBC, Everbright and other banks to understand that they are currently one or two sets of loans issued all normal, including approval conditions and procedures are unchanged.　　For those who buy a house with rigid demand, if they are applying for the first set of mortgages, they can also enjoy a discount on interest rates in some banks. Industry analysis, the third set of housing loans suspended, the impact on investors relatively large, and for the residents, the impact is limited. As for the third set of mortgage opening time, it depends on the overall real estate market macro-policy and regulatory status.