Passenger car market inflection point clear Changan Auto May sales chain continued to drop

Changan Automobile (000625, closing price 10.03 Yuan) today (June 4) released May sales and marketing letters, as previously expected, the company's production and sales volume fell for the second consecutive month, the year-on-year growth rate has slowed markedly. Industry insiders believe that this shows that the auto industry, especially the passenger car enterprise production and sales data of the inflection point has clearly emerged.　　But after the recent central government's new subsidy policy, the second half of the small-footprint passenger car sales are likely to be better than the market before the pessimistic forecast. Chang ' An automobile chain decline continued to drop today, Chang ' an automobile released May sales and marketing data showed that last month, the company produced 128,200 cars, sales reached 129,000 vehicles. Compared with the first few figures this year, Changan car production and sales reached a high in March, the monthly decline in the chain. The disclosure of May sales and marketing data, respectively, compared to April year-on-year decline of 16.3% and 10.7%.　　On the other hand, year-on-year growth also slowed markedly, the company May production, sales growth of 5.08% and 8.68% respectively, and in April the two indicators were 30.2% and 22.7% respectively. On the industry as a whole, the slowdown in year-on-year growth has emerged in April. In the first 4 months of this year, China's automobile cumulative output of 6.1183 million vehicles, sales of 6.1659 million vehicles, year-on-year growth of 64% and 61%, the increase in January-March 77% and 72% respectively fell back 13 and 11%.　　According to the announcement of Changan Motor today, the year-on-year slowdown in overall sales growth will continue to emerge in May. From the Chinese Automobile Association's point of view is that the auto production and marketing is gradually "from high-speed to stable growth", adhere to the annual car sales growth in 10%~15% around the forecast, from the side reflects the growth in the second half of the slowdown.　　Day congenial Gu thinks, consider 2009 years of high Cardinal number and policy to drive consumption to some extent overdraft this year's consumer demand and related consumption stimulus policy effect weakened, the forecast car cumulative sales growth rate will show a gradual decline trend. Small-displacement passenger cars or a transit industry overall growth slowed, the brunt of the passenger car.　　Commercial vehicles are backed by a recovery in infrastructure and logistics demand, and the pace of sales fall slower than passenger cars. From April data, commercial vehicle production and sales were 3% and 6%, far lower than the passenger car 12%. In April, the increase in inventory, from the passenger car part of the 40,000 vehicles, of which inventory of cars rose 31,300 in the beginning of March, continued to rise after 48100 vehicles, on the other hand, commercial vehicle inventory decreased for two consecutive months, 3 April, 36,500 and 21,700 respectively.　　Therefore, the industry analysts more optimistic about commercial vehicles, especially in the second half of the heavy card sales performance. For passenger cars, there may be a turnaround. Recently, the Ministry of Finance website issued the "energy-saving vehicles (1.6 liters and the following passenger cars) to promote the implementation of the Rules", the clear indication will be 1.6L and below the displacement of passenger car models, if the General workersState fuel consumption is lower than the third stage of national motor fuel consumption limit of 20%, to give 3000 yuan/car subsidy. Qin Yuewen, an analyst at Orient Securities and auto industry, said the subsidy would be more than halved from last year's purchase tax after the tax concession was superimposed. He to the price of 80,000 yuan 1.6L energy-saving passenger car for example, consumers can enjoy a total of 4709 yuan discount, higher than last year's 3419 yuan. Therefore, Qin Yuewen that the policy is equivalent to the national level of small-displacement passenger car products to promote the impact of consumer buying behavior more. 1.6L and the following passenger car model sales accounted for the total passenger car sales in the proportion of 65%, Qin Yuewen expected the new subsidy policy will be the second half of the passenger vehicle market growth has a very positive impact, so the relevant motor companies in the second half of the profit level is likely to be far better than the current pessimistic expectations.