PC numbers aren't scary.

Lead: Last week, the headline was shocking, computer shipments have fallen by about 11% in the second quarter, and shipments in the first quarter have fallen by 14%. However, the PC technology website wrote that the figures were not scary, and analysts said the PC's downward trend had eased and the future was expected to return to a stable growth momentum.

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The drop in PC shipments is not good news, and we already know that tablets are quietly emerging, and that the lackluster Windows 8 new user interface is not conducive to PC sales.

But looking closely at these figures, we will find an interesting trend, though not a rise, at least not a drastic decline, and some signs that, while we should not expect to see the growth of the PC industry, we have experienced the most drastic decline in the stage.

PC numbers aren't scary.

In the first quarter, PC shipments fell 14% from a year earlier, compared with a 11% drop in the second quarter, although the data are not optimistic, but more importantly, this does not mean that PC shipments have fallen by 25%. Year-on-year data, compared to the 2013 and 2012 corresponding to the quarter.

As a result, PC shipments fell 11% in the second quarter of 2013, compared with the second quarter of 2012 rather than the first quarter of 2013. So the latest figures are not that scary.

Personal computer sales in the first quarter of this year created the biggest drop in history, according to IDC, with PC shipments falling from 88.6 million in the first quarter of 2012 to 76.2 million in the first quarter of 2013 (roughly the same data from Gartner, another market research firm). Fell to 14%.

But if you compare the second quarter of 2013 with personal computer shipments in the first quarter of 2013, you will realize that the data for the last 6 months are not that bad.

According to IDC, PC shipments were 75.6 million in the second quarter of 2013, down from just 600,000 units in the first quarter. Meanwhile, the top five PC makers ' shipments in the second quarter were higher than in the first quarter, and this quarter fell from other smaller computer makers.

Of course, overall shipments have fallen a lot this year compared with last year, but the drop in PC shipments has eased in comparison to quarterly and quarterly levels.

In addition, in the United States, the decline in shipments is relatively small, Gartner said, the United States in the second quarter of the decline in shipments only 1.4%, compared with the same period last year, the decline was only 1.9%. Why is the relative stability of PC shipments in the U.S. market? The answer is simple, because the United States has ended the "peak period" of the tablet.

Tablet computer to disrupt

"We know that many tablet buyers believe that tablets can do a lot of PC functions, but we think that no one says that tablet computers can replace PCs completely," said Jay Chou, a senior research analyst at IDC. Tablets are not a perfect substitute. ”

It has been said before that tablet computers are an important reason for the sluggish sales of PCs. Most people have not replaced PCs with tablets, but have postponed buying new computers because of tablets.

The growth of the PC industry requires two factors: one to develop new customers in the developing world and the other to upgrade regularly by users who already own computers. The enjoyable tablet experience delayed users from buying new PCs, which hurt PCs shipments.

PC shipments have fallen sharply in the past two quarters (compared with the same period last year), but Mikako Kitagawa, Gartner's chief analyst, said a small drop in the U.S. in the second quarter suggested the decline in the PC market was beginning to moderate.

Beichuan said: "American industry is undoubtedly the most advanced (tablet), so in the U.S. market, the tablet computer eats up the phenomenon of the PC market is slowing down." In other areas, however, the PC market has continued to be eroded by tablets. ”

There is no doubt that the PC industry is still in a slump, especially around the world, even if personal computer shipments fall by a small margin every quarter.

"In general, PC shipments in the first quarter should be the lowest in a year, growing every quarter, peaking at the holidays, and the two-quarter results reversed the seasonal trend," Chou said. ”

tend to stabilize the future of the PC

Indeed, both Gartner and IDC predict that global PC shipments will continue to fall in years. Current estimates predict that the PC will fall slightly.

The results of the second quarter matched the forecasts of IDC and Gartner, and Chou and Beichuan predicted that the PC decline would fall to single-digit digits for the remainder of 2013.

"Once the PC reaches a certain market size and shrinks to the same level as the tablet market, it tends to stabilize and return to a stable growth momentum," Beichuan said. "Chou agrees that he expects the growth of tablets to moderate in 2014 or 2015 years, while PC sales will remain stable."

Whether the PC market can rise again depends on a number of factors, such as price, the effect of Windows 8.1 and people's comfort. In fact, the stagnation of PCs is also due to a variety of factors. The future of the PC industry is not as bleak as it was earlier this year.