Ten years of time for the Internet may be too long, and then, if Pinterest and Instagram still exist, then certainly not the present appearance and mode, so in fact, we explore such a distant thing is a little irrelevant.
But if you just shorten the time to a year or two, then you can discuss: in the present, what are the characteristics of the product is more likely to be in the future to achieve higher value? I have a very simple judgment model for this, and I'm going to start using this model in 2011 to judge a variety of emerging internet products, I have been using it very well and have a high hit rate.
This model consists of three features:
I. Fragments (fragments)
The main content of this product must be fragmented and the fragmentation is isomorphic. Twitter, for example, has fragmented "everything" into 140 words, Sina Weibo has "everything" fragmented into 140 words + a picture, Pinterest "All the Good things" fragment for a picture + a small paragraph description + a URL, mushroom street to "all the beautiful female merchandise" fragment for a picture + A short description + a product purchase address (both online and offline).
The richness of the debris basically determines the scale of the product after the final platform, so it's easy to see that Sina Weibo is bigger than Mushroom street because its debris is "everything," and Mushroom Street is just "all beautiful women's goods". The more the attributive, the smaller the scale.
Ii. Organization (Organize)
Why the Shard? Because isomorphic fragments are easily organized in various dimensions.
For example, Twitter according to timeline organization, Tumblr according to tag organization, Pinterest According to board organization, Mushroom Street by commodity natural category organization.
This kind of organization must be very free, and any two pieces of debris are likely to be organized together. The more free the organization, the faster the flow of information, and the corresponding failure to obtain precipitation.
So we see that because timeline is the most liberal form of organization, so Sina Weibo information flow fastest, but the information quickly expired; the organization of Mushroom Street is restricted by the boundary of commodity natural category, so the circulation is relatively slow, but the information can precipitate to some extent, excavate the "hottest" commodity to guide the "herd mentality" The user.
Iii. re-organization (re-organize)
When fragmentation of information is organized in some way, such a product also allows users to organize information fragmentation in a very free way.
For example, the "forwarding" function of Sina Weibo is to reorganize the information fragments of others into its own timeline; Tumblr's "Re-blog" feature and Pinterest's "Re-pin" feature, you can easily organize other people's original or collected pieces into their own system; Mushroom Street "like" function, you can share the good merchandise, very quickly to their favorite directory.
The essential role of the Organization is to increase productivity by reusing limited content as fully as possible.
For example, in the BBS system without the ability to organize, a message (post) can only be consumed by 10 people, but the same content, which is likely to be consumed on average by 50 people in the microblogging system, is the same production costs (the time spent by the original source) that results in greater production, or higher productivity.
Therefore, to make the "Re-organization" function, the user must be required to select the overall content of the ability to be strong, and the product itself through the "accumulation of user behavior to obtain altruistic results of the mechanism" (this can be seen in my previous speech in Eric). From this point of view, I am more concerned about the full pinterest-copy, in China will be "not big enough to have a very good aesthetic ability of people" constraints.
The above three points form the basic framework of the model, which I call the "for" model.
Next we use this model to actually look at some products, and I'm going to rate each one of the products below by three for the model, up to 5 points.
Twitter:f4.5-o4-r3
Twitter fragments are very thorough, but not supporting the picture or a bit too reserved, the organization is to use the timeline, benefits and problems are said above, the organization can only say pass, re-tweet function mixed.
Sina Weibo: f5-o4-r3.5
Sina Weibo's two improvements to Twitter are great, with a message map and a "forwarding" feature. This two-point improvement has made this product form a total of 85 points, so we recently saw some reports that Sina Weibo users are several times more active than Twitter, and judging from this model is reasonable.
Tumblr:f3-o3.5-r3
The fragmentation of the light Bo is too large (or not fragmented), causing too much information dimensions to be organized and cumbersome to organize. So overall, I am not very optimistic about the development of light Bo, from the recent development of such products, it is really not good.
Pinterest:f4.5-o4.5-r5
Artifact appears, it is only two points away from the full mark: The image-oriented fragments, in the richness of Twitter and Weibo; Tag and the board of the two-dimensional organization is perfect, but tag's organization is still very dependent on "responsible" users, so to buckle a little points. Re-pin function is very convenient, and the result of Re-pin is to reorganize a board, when the user's general aesthetic ability is good, exert the energy is extremely big.
To tell you the truth, although I gave Pinterest the average high score early on, I still didn't expect it to develop so wildly.
Mushroom Street: f3-o4.5-r3.5
To evaluate their own products. It says that our fragmentation is not rich enough, so the scale is certainly not as big as the other few examples of products. But there is a loss, our debris is easy to cash, and they can be naturally organized by category, do not need to rely on "responsible" users, so the organization of high score. Organizational aspects of "like" function is very convenient and easy to use, but a high level of users, and then organize the content to be consumed again after the "yield" is not high, which is that we have been headaches and efforts to solve.
Instagram:f? O? R?
This is the practice, we can according to the idea of the above to score it, and then give the landlord an answer:
Why do products that meet the for model have a higher probability of getting faster growth?
1. Productivity, as mentioned above, is higher productivity for products with higher information usage than traditional products. This is the most essential reason;
2. Suitable for mobile devices, because the content of small pieces, can be easily browsed on mobile devices, and the free form of organization and the lightness of organizing action, are very suitable for mobile operation.
It's a summary, but it's likely to be worthless, perhaps a summary of what "good sprinters have two legs." So I use this model to infer a product that does not exist at present, we can look back to see whether such a product has not appeared, there is no high-speed growth, in order to verify that the model is not reliable.
I infer that this product is a tourist product.
Fragments. Its fragments are "everything on the road", such as a scenic spot, a restaurant, a dish, a gas station and so on, all fragmented and isomorphic to "a picture + a description + a geographical location."
Of course, after the isomorphism of the structure may be more complex, such as more than one picture, but here for the most simple processing.
Ii. Organization. All of these fragments can be organized according to the so-called "route" or "work". For example, I made a Hangzhou strategy, which may have these fragments "Leifeng Tower, West Guest House, White Dike, a grandmother's grandmother scrambled eggs ...", these fragments may be in chronological order, or by geographical row. When I travel to Hangzhou, I can use mobile phone at any time to call my work, guide the trip, and at any time for each piece of debris to take pictures or check in. When I miss a fragment because of my lost, it doesn't matter, the rest of the surrounding debris will be recommended, choose one at random and play it.
Third, the organization. When I play home, before the play in the check in behavior and photo behavior, the system automatically organized as "travels", while another user can simply copy my travels, change some of these fragments, become his travel to Hangzhou "work slightly."
In this way, Work > Attendance > Travels > Work ... becomes a loop in which information is used more fully.
I believe that such tourism products will get a lot of people like it, do you like it? ^_^