PMI linked to the February seasonal factor or the main reason experts say don't worry

The 2011 Spring Festival, which was caused by a combination of austerity and seasonal weakness, was also a major factor affecting PMI data in early February. In January 2011, China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers ' Index (PMI) was 52.9%, down 1% from last month, to the PMI for the 2nd consecutive month, according to the China Logistics and Purchasing Federation (CFLP) yesterday. Analysts believe that the continued fall in January PMI may help allay fears of overheating and inflation in China's economic growth. However, the HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on the same day, was off the three-month low, with January data rising from 54.4 last December to 54.5.　　Economists argue that China's economic policy is likely to be dominated by inflation, despite data-pointing. Seasonal factors or main reasons from the various indices, the overall appearance of a retreat. In comparison with last month, the volume index, import index, purchase price index and raw material inventory index rose, with import indices and purchase price indices rising by more than 2%, while the remaining indices declined in varying degrees.　　Among them, the production index, the new export Order index, the backlog order index, the employee index fell more than 2%, especially the backlog order index fell most significantly, fell 4.2%. "The rate of correction for PMI data exceeded our expectations and that of the market. "Societe Generale, chief economist at Societe Generale Capital Operations Center, said SocGen's previous forecast was 54.4%, while the general market forecast was 53.5%." Kin, a Barclays Capital economist, argues that the slowdown in the NBS PMI and more than expected declines may be due to seasonal weakness, as the days of cold weather and the start of the Lunar New Year holiday on February 3 have disrupted production.　　Other economists have also referred to the "seasonal factor" when it comes to the reasons for the PMI pullback, as most of the spring festival in the previous year was in late February, with the Spring Festival at the beginning of the month, resulting in a greater impact on January data. Business costs rising employment worries data show that the overall index of the various indicators to decline. Compared to last month, Volume index, import index, purchase price index, raw material stock index rose, among them, import index, purchase price index increased by more than 2%; the remaining indices declined in varying degrees, with the production index, the new export Order index, the backlog order index and the employment index falling by a large margin,　　More than 2%, especially with the backlog index fell most significantly, fell 4.2%. Specifically, the New Order index for the month was 54.9%, down 0.5% from last month, with a production index of 55.3%, down 2.2% from last month, and continued to fall, with an import index of 53%, up 2.6% from last month, and a new export order index of 50.7%. Fell 2.8% from last month, with an employee index of 49%, down 2.5% from last month, a fall in employment, a rebound in the price index and a 6 per-month purchase price index.9.3%, up 2.6% from last month, indicating the cost of production or continued higher. Haitong Securities macroeconomic analyst Liu Tiejun that the New Order index and export order index fell, mainly because of the foreign consumption peak in the past, demand fell sharply, overall still is strong outside the weak pattern. The reason for the rise in the price index for raw material purchases, Liu Tiejun, may be related to the recent increase in dollar-weak commodity prices. "More attention is being paid to the instability in Africa, one of the most recent major commodity suppliers, which could further push up commodity prices."　　"In addition, Liu Tiejun also said that in the context of aggregate demand growth, the production inventory index to take the lead in response, raw material inventory index is still rising, but will eventually fall by this impact." The determination to curb inflation in the January survey of manufacturing purchasing managers, Liu Tiejun said the January PMI fall was a normal phenomenon and was the result of tightening policies and seasonal factors. "In fact, this is a very small drop in this double factor," he said. The PMI is expected to continue to slide in February, but it is still expanding and will be warmed up in March. "CFLP Special analyst Zhang Analysis:" After the last December, the January PMI index continued to fall, suggesting that the recent trend of economic stability is not clear, the potential to continue the correction. The new export order index fell, the purchase price index continued to improve, indicating that the enterprise orders reduced and the cost of pressure to increase, enterprises face greater difficulties. Comprehensive view of the current economic operation is still in a state of adjustment, the future trend is not clear. "The slowdown in manufacturing activity is unlikely to shake the current government's determination to curb inflation," said Brianjackson, an economist at Royal Bank of Canada.　　He says policymakers may be concerned about buying price indices, which are still strong enough to keep inflation at the top of the list. The economy is still in its normal run. Kin, a Barclays Capital economist, said 52.9% was a good indicator, although lower-than-expected data could add to market angst, particularly as it is now expected to be at a time of greater policy tightening and higher interest rates.　　But in the context of the 9.8% accelerated pace of growth in the 4th quarter of 2010, it is acceptable to have a slowdown in production activity. "If economic growth continues to exceed 9.5%, there will be a risk of overheating." This will exacerbate already very serious inflation risks and require more aggressive and more stringent policy tightening than expected.　　"Kin said. Zuo also believes that an appropriate economic correction is a situation that should be welcomed, and that China's economy will not have to pursue more than 10 percentage points of growth, otherwise it is difficult to control inflation. "The PMI index is still above 50% per cent, indicating that the economy is still in its normal operating range and that there is no possibility of a sharp decline," she cautioned. Lu Commissar also said: "Although the PMI decline, but should not be too worried about the risk of the economic downturn, nor because of worries about the economic downturn in the time to curb inflation." Nanfang Daily reporter Gao