Policy and market conditions are changing and consumer demand has changed

Policy and market conditions are changing and consumer demand has changed, which could lead to adjustments in future business models. Vanke lies in the future depends on what will continue to become a real estate industry in a personalized company, and continue to become the rules of the game.

Vanke Panic What?

2014 years ago 11 months, green space to 190.8 billion yuan sales more than Vanke, is considered to be possible to replace Vanke as the industry's first time. Vanke quickly realized 200 billion of the sales back, the green space again dumped in the back. Vanke President Yu Liang once said, "Vanke is the eldest brother really long, who would like to take it really good." "This is not necessarily a true word, but let Vanke really feel a bit panicky is the real estate market changes this year."

2014 The state of China's economic development is defined as the "new normal", which is a political term, but is used to generalize the real estate industry in the 2014. 2014 China Real estate developers land acquisition area of 293.76 million square meters, down 14.5%, the first 11 months of commercial housing sales total area of more than 1 billion square meters, lower 8.2%, commercial housing sales of 6.4481 trillion yuan, compared with the same period last year down 7.8%. The era of savage growth in which the real estate industry used to exploit the land and make a lot of money has passed.

The real estate regulation policy also changed a lot in 2014. Administrative interventions began to fade, such as the nationwide policy of restricting purchases since 2011, with only 5 remaining cities still in operation. While the restrictions were "untied", the government also unveiled a number of bailout measures to stimulate the property market, such as the central bank's first rate cut, which lowered housing and other long-term lending rates by 0.4%.

The real estate market is under great pressure. Housing is no longer as scarce as in the past, Ma Jiajia a "don't buy a house" seems to make Vanke flustered. But the demand for home purchase has not really come, the average age of Chinese buyers 27 years old, this is what Vanke is really worried about-do not know where the future consumers-before the real estate developers do not have to think about it.

Policy and market conditions are changing and consumer demand has changed, which could lead to adjustments in future business models. Vanke lies in the future depends on what will continue to become a real estate industry in a personalized company, and continue to become the rules of the game.

So you will see Vanke's various attempts, especially those related to the Internet.

Vanke's Internet gimmick

Internet thinking is almost vanke, or the entire real estate industry for 2014 of years of keywords. From the beginning of Yu Liang with management team to Millet, Ali, Tencent and other technology companies to visit, to Millet chairman Lei asked Yu-liang "You cover the price of the house can fall by half," and then to the end, Mao Daqing said "the Internet cannot afford to build a house." As you can see, Vanke is busy this year around the Internet.

June, Vanke and Baidu signed, start commercial real estate technology operation, will "positioning engine, large data, marketing tools" three core technologies into Vanke commercial property operations. Through locating engine and large data analysis, this paper tries to adjust the investment strategy of commercial real estate, analyze the track of pedestrian movement and consumption habits, etc., so as to make accurate marketing.

August, Vanke Group's first on-line "million", is a micro-trust platform for the popular interactive marketing tool, any person can be registered as Vanke online broker. "Universal" includes two important functions, one is "national broker", that is, to encourage the registrant to recommend customers to buy Vanke project, one is "talent sharing", that is, to encourage the registrant to disseminate Vanke information, and from which to find opinion leaders and potential customer needs.

Immediately thereafter, Vanke and Taobao announced that Taobao users spend the year how much money can be in the 21 cities in Vanke 23 directly to offset the purchase of housing, the maximum can be deducted 2 million yuan. The move could save up to 10% of the cost of home purchase for Taobao users, media reported. Vanke said it was a creative attempt by Vanke to use the Internet, and Vanke will explore various possibilities with a learning and open mind.

To sum up, Vanke's internet thinking, one is marketing gimmick, one is called O2O.

Vanke is still maintaining normal financial growth

According to Vanke's financial report, 2014 years ago three quarter cumulative sales area of 12.638 million square meters, sales amount of 149.06 billion yuan, increased by 15% and 16% respectively. In addition, in the repatriation of funds, the 43.54% increase in money. Vanke has continued to maintain its financial growth.

But margins have been falling, from about 21% in the first quarter to about 16% in the second quarter, then to about 15% in the third quarter. In fact, the decline in gross profit margins has started earlier, Rand Consulting data shows that from 2011 to 2014, Vanke's gross profit margin from 28.79% to 21.78%. Evergrande, China Sea, Poly, Shimao, garden and other property developers are also falling. For the industry as a whole, real estate sales fell from 21.13% to 16.63% from 2010 to 2013.

This means that the era of high profits in the real estate industry has passed.

Mao Daqing said the "Internet thinking can't afford building", this is the real idea

Although Vanke played a lot of internet gimmicks, but the end of Mao's "Internet cover" is actually the most real idea. The measure of Vanke's performance is still the number of houses sold, but only if there is a house to sell.

Vanke is relatively conservative this year, mainly because inventory pressure, from 2012 to 2014 in the first three quarters, Vanke inventories increased by more than 100 billion. Plus the year-end new house into the market, Vanke's inventory will increase.

Vanke capital chain is becoming more and more tense, but still in November, a breath of 6 of land. The flow ratio and fast rate of the representative Vanke's short-term solvency are slipping. In view of the long-term debt ratio, the average value of asset-liability ratio and net liability ratio of real estate listed companies is 65.81%, and Vanke has been higher than average for nearly three years. This means that in the industry, Vanke has a high and continuing financial risk. Once in the loan period of decline in sales or property in the adjustment, downward cycle, Vanke is very easy to cash flow, repayment difficulties, and then meet the credit crunch will be more trouble.

But the market as a whole may be brewing changes, developers have to redefine

China's industry was born a large number of the richest class, they benefited from local government land finance policy, GDP performance, and so on, most local governments to the industry as a pillar industry, financing and other policy support. On the basis of these, China's urbanization needs. But in the 10 years from 2004 to 2014, according to the Hurun list, the number of people in China's richest class (Top 20) has fallen from 56% to 32%. In 2014, the top six of the rich list accounted for half the power of internet companies.

At the same time, the process of urbanization is slowing down, the performance of GDP growth assessment, the future may also be loose, "to the administrative" will let Vanke these large housing enterprises maintained a long period of government resources to discount.

All this means that real estate is becoming more and more vulnerable as a pillar industry, leaving high growth and returning to normality, and every property developer may have to think about how to do business in the future.

O2O at least for today's Vanke, is still a false proposition

For real estate business (also including Vanke), take the land, building, selling the core of the chain has not changed, if the chain to further refine, it involves early market research, take the land, design, construction, decoration, sales to property services and other links. Every important node in this industry chain has nothing to do with the Internet, especially the most important land and sales (in the face of consumers) two links. In addition, the main competitive advantage of real estate is the lot, each city has a scarce lot value, this and Internet relations are not big.

Therefore, O2O for the current Vanke, including the entire real estate industry, is still a false proposition.

Market changes depend on the change of supply and demand, and the relationship between supply and demand determines the price. The reason for China's 40% rise in house prices comes from rigid demand. 30% from the rise in land prices, Chinese land acquisition prices have risen in real terms over the past few years. Another 30% of the reasons are speculative investments. You see, these are not the problems that the Internet or O2O can solve.

But the internet is not entirely worthless, it needs to "understand" consumers

The essence of the Internet is to enhance efficiency, it can more accurately find the target users, faster to reach users, but also faster access to user feedback. Millet is actually the most typical example, it skips all intermediate links, direct sales to its consumers.

Real estate currently use the Internet, online housing, advance and other such attempts are essentially to the line of customer traffic to the line, for the new property ahead of the store. Compared with the traditional way, the Internet can also be more effective organization of potential consumers, which is valuable to the property developers.

In addition, when the traditional model of real estate sales, Vanke needs to give consumers more services, such as the money to make "services", the Internet is also valuable. For example, Vanke in the property of the attempt, this September, Vanke and Alibaba's smart community to enter into the signing phase of the agreement, planning to play the creation of networking + Remote monitoring management + community social and future-oriented smart community. Remote monitoring management System can realize the Community power supply, water supply, fire, elevators, air-conditioning and other equipment, operational data and remote monitoring of the state of the visual management, at the same time into the property management functions, this is actually in the matting.

But the premise that the Internet plays a role, need it to understand consumer more. Vanke has targeted its own mainstream user groups-a certain economic base of the urban white-collar workers, launched a number of real estate. such as Vanke Orange, Qingdao Vanke rice These small projects, not only from cost-effective to adapt to the young people's consumption capacity, but also to cater to their tastes and needs. The decoration design style is concise and artistic. Diverse community functions, including fitness venues and community libraries. These demand information can be collected and analyzed through the Internet platform. Perhaps the future of custom real estate services is not impossible.

At present, the average age of Chinese buyers is 27 years old. The average age of Chinese internet users is 25 years. The possibility of the future of the Internet in real estate, in marketing, perhaps more space for imagination.

Every real estate company is looking for its own features.

In the next 10 years, real estate developers want to make money, and their business models may have to revolve around a group of people. That's the tenant. Developers and tenants have to maintain a long-term relationship. Services, not real estate, will become the focus of development. Vanke has begun to cultivate its own consumer habits. Become the city supporting service provider, this is Vanke's future plan.

For example, Vanke's community model brings together cafes, cinemas, supermarkets, canteens, as well as the small town of VC for Children's amusement, the Growth Center for Youth Education, and the community for old-age services. Vanke to establish a children's hospital, and school cooperation and exchanges, are in this model to pave the way.

For Vanke, it needs some innovation to ensure the long-term and sustainable operation of the company. Vanke has been making these attempts. Vanke and international private equity giant Carlyle have been working with private equity funds to allow their commercial properties to operate in light assets. Vanke's commercial real estate not only has the holding Type property, provides the housing supporting service, but also may withdraw the fund, alleviates the financial pressure, reduces the risk.

In the face of the depressed property market, the pressure of China's real estate developers have begun to stop bulldozers, turning their eyes to a variety of new businesses, such as the attempt to start pig farms, production of solar panels, the introduction of online shopping. For residential property developers, there are two main paths: first, to find their own service characteristics, for fine production, such as Longhu to do the garden, Green city to do the high quality of housing, Vanke to do urban matching service providers; second, find more financing channels, spread the risk, such as the constant sea out to find, Green space and government cooperation urbanization construction project.

Chen Fenyang, Shenzhen Lemon International executive director, said that the "real estate +x" Cross-border and integration is the main way to expand the growth of housing enterprises, diversification of business to broaden profits. Albert Lau, head of China research at the first Pacific Davis Savills, also believes that these additional services will "enrich the living experience of households" and help developers and their projects stand out.

History has shown the potential benefits of such a shift. Many Hong Kong developers, such as the Cheung Kong Holdings of billionaire Li Ka-shing, have started from construction companies and now operate a diverse business empire.

We go back to Vanke, constantly trial and error and adjustment is the normal phenomenon of company development

One investment banker who specialises in the real estate industry said: "In the past, you have invested 100 of dollars and recovered 150 of dollars, and now you are spending 100 dollars and will only be able to harvest 5 or 6 dollars next year. "From the investment point of view, the real estate also slowly into the downward phase."

The market and consumers have changed, Vanke may be in the transition time. 2014, Vanke said and did so much, whether it is trial or error or adjustment is in the future to find a mode of survival. The ultimate goal of developers is to create an "ecosystem" that brings sustainable income.

After a few years of Vanke, if it is China's best real estate companies, it should be from the beginning of the year.