Policy fine-tuning warning operation biased conservative

Source: Internet
Author: User
Keywords Excess liquidity stock opportunities weight index stocks future stock index
Data source: Big smart ballot box The results show that while investors are divided over the current judgment of market risk and opportunity, some investors have lowered their positions to cope with the recent fine-tuning of monetary policy and conservative investor operations.  The survey shows that small and medium-sized investors do not blindly follow institutional investors and adjust their own operating ideas. This week in the case of insurance, steel, coal oil, non-ferrous metals and other weight index stocks, such as banks warmed up, Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock indexes continue to expand the space, the Shanghai Composite Index rose up to more than 3,200 points, and Shen Chengzhi further up to 13,000 points above, at the same time the market transactions also enlarged, such as Wednesday and Thursday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Municipal transactions in the daily amount of more than 300 billion yuan, a new record since the recent transaction. From the news, the central bank released June new loan data, the first half of GDP growth of 7.1%, two quarter year-on-year growth of 7.9%, reversing the seven consecutive quarterly GDP decline year-on-year, but the extraordinary growth of money also makes a moderate adjustment of macro-policy calls higher. The theme of this week's joint survey with great wisdom is "the implications and implications of policy fine-tuning", respectively, from the "recent Central bank monetary policy has been fine-tuning, how will this affect the market?" "and" What does it mean for institutional investors such as funds to invest heavily in the market? "," Do you decide to enter and exit according to the entry and exit of institutional investors?  In five areas, the total received 1144 valid votes. Policy fine-tuning has a warning that the central bank recently through the open market operation for two consecutive weeks net release of a small net return, and the resumption of the 1-year issue, short-term repurchase bid interest rates rise, and at the 22nd meeting of the NPC Finance Committee, the Committee members considered that the strict implementation of moderately loose monetary policy, To prevent the abnormal growth of money and credit may lead to inflation risk and financial risk, we should adjust the macro-policy appropriately according to the changing situation. In addition, after the property market hit a new high, the CBRC has also revealed signs of tightening the two-pack mortgage policy. And this round of market since many people insist on the reason is excess liquidity, monetary policy fine-tuning will have an impact on a a-share? According to "Recently, the central bank monetary policy began fine-tuning, which will affect the market?" The results of the survey, in which the choice of "insignificant", "warning" and "bad" votes were 174 votes, 860 votes and 110 votes respectively, the proportion of 15.21%, 75.17% and 9.62% respectively.  As can be seen from the above vote, investors generally believe that the central bank's monetary policy began to fine-tune the current market has a warning, a ratio of more than three-fourths, reflecting investors worry that the central bank monetary fine-tuning may mean the end of the cycle of interest rate cuts, thereby affecting the Fund side of the A-share market and further Institutions to enter the market means that the fundamentals to the good into July, the fund will be released two quarterly report, including the bank Schroeder and HSBC Jin Trust fund company 17th, the first published report shows that the bank Schroeder's share direction fund to increase the majority of the position to 90%Above, while HSBC Jin letter has been reduced, but the position is still at a high level. And with the rise of a-share market, the phenomenon of queuing to buy funds reappear, and 20 only fund queue pending. But there are disagreements over institutional investors such as the fund investing heavily in investors. What does it mean for institutional investors such as the fund to invest heavily in the market? "The survey results show that the choice of" big market increase space "," more opportunities "," Good Fundamentals "," good policy orientation "and" bad say "votes are 217 votes, 260 votes, 360 votes, 174 votes and 133 votes, the proportion of 18.97%, 22.73%, 31.47%, respectively , 15.21% and 11.63%.  From the results of the survey can be found that investors tend to the fundamentals of good and stock opportunities to trigger the fund and other institutional investors to enter the market, and the choice of the larger market to increase the proportion of space is less than 20%, indicating investors for the future stock index upward space holding a relatively cautious view. The degree of independent decision of investors has been improved and, on the other hand, after 2008 years of deep adjustment, investors have shown signs of cooling in the esteem of institutional investors represented by the fund. About "Do you decide your own entry and exit according to the entry and exit of institutional investors?" The results of the survey showed that the votes for "yes", "no" and "see the situation" were 315, 346 and 483 respectively, with a share of 27.53%, 30.24% and 42.22%.  Although more than one-fourth of investors say they are moving in and out according to institutional investors, the flexibility of their operations has increased markedly, with more than 40% of investors saying they will take the appropriate action, rather than follow the institutional investors ' thinking, to increase the degree of autonomy in investment decisions. The controversy over market risk based on the analysis of the current a-share market, on the one hand, Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange data show that, in the light of 2008 earnings, as of July 16 Close, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, Shen Chengzhi and SME board refers to static P/E ratio 27.18 times times, 26.62 times times 35.11 times times and 35.19 times times; On the other hand, from the distribution of P/E, the static P/E ratio of many varieties of the current a-share has risen to more than 100 times times, close to the 2007 peak of 6,124 point valuation. And about "How do you evaluate the current stock market?" "The findings also reflect the differences between investors over the current level of market valuations. The survey showed that among them, the choice of "opportunity greater than risk", "reasonable valuation, risk equal opportunity", "risk greater than opportunity" and "market entry into the end" of the votes are 297 votes, 258 votes, 285 votes and 303 votes, the proportion is 25.96%, 22.55%, 25% and 26.49 respectively. %。 From the results of the poll, the four options offered were fairly close to the market, with greater controversy over risk and opportunity. But what about your recent position? "The findings show that the selection" has not changed, the "reduced" and "enhanced" votes were 424 votes, 430 votes and 290 votes, respectively, of 37.06%, 37.59% and 25.35%.  Investors have tended to be cautious about the proportion of investors who recently lowered their positions in the survey by nearly 12% per cent higher than those raising positions. Combined with the above survey results, although investors on the current market risk and opportunity to judge the differences, but with the recent adjustment of the central bank's monetary policy, investors generally think that the warning means, the operation is also tending to conservative, some investors choose to reduce position positions to deal with. Investors do not blindly follow the institutional behavior and adjust their own operating ideas. In the author's opinion, with the further upward of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock index, although there is still a distance from 2007, the A-share market is not suitable for value investment. In view of the last four quarters since the general decline in profitability of listed companies, as a number of stock prices rebounded to historical highs, the market bubble gradually increased, a-share market speculation atmosphere is increasingly strong. And some of the shares in the capital under the impetus of a continuous sharp, from the side reflects the main attempt to pull high prices through fast to win more space, but also reflects the current market on the trend to judge the differences are increasing. On the other hand, the market rose stimulated the enthusiasm of the market, and the recent amplification of the trading volume, so that the stock index is still strong, the future is expected to further upward, but the median adjustment of the risk is increasing, optimistic to stay cautious.
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