Policy support + cost reduction auto stock will speed up in the second half

With the recent introduction of the "car to replace the new implementation measures", CICC to the automotive industry Analysis, the following several sub-industry earnings in the first half of the forecast. A steady increase in earnings and profits for the first half of the year. Passenger car sales in the first half 4.53 million units, an increase of 25.6%, of which 3.24 million car sales, the year-on-year growth of 21.6%.　　As sales growth comes mainly from the Midwest and small-footprint cars, industry revenue and profit growth is slightly lower than the increase in sales, the relevant listed companies in the interim results, CICC expects Shanghai auto performance growth of 17%, FAW car growth 13%, Changan Auto growth 11%. Second, the policy support to promote the light card companies small profit growth. The first half of the light card sales of 740,000 units, an increase of 8.7%, light card mainly used in urban and rural logistics, the impact of small, light card in the countryside in the second half of the direct subsidy will further promote light card sales growth.　　Light truck leading Enterprises Futian automobile, Jianghuai Automobile and Jiangling Motors in the interim results will be 29% year-on-year growth, down 55% and 27% decline. Third, heavy card and the first half of the profit decline. Economic weakness in the first half of the year led to a relatively low demand for passenger and freight transport, while the third-country III standard switching effect of a higher base, the first half of heavy cards and large and medium passenger sales fell 20.5% and 21.3% respectively year-on-year. Looking back, the second half of the economy will tend to improve, road passenger demand and logistics demand will significantly rebound, heavy card and large and medium passenger sales will shift to the year-on-year positive growth.　　In the interim, CICC expects the performance of Weichai power to decline 43%, China's heavy steam A shares slipped 61%, yutong passenger cars slipped 53%, Jinlong car fell 87%. Four is the steady growth of parts profit. Parts companies in the overall car sales rebound and raw material costs fell stimulated by the first half of the profit growth steadily. Overall, the export market after the first half of the downturn is expected to rebound in the second half, in the market segments with global competitiveness, exports accounted for the second half of the enterprise worthy of attention.　　In the interim, CICC expects a big growth in China's automotive performance, a 25% increase in its FAW-rich dimension, a 47% per cent decline in its glass, a 45% increase in its shares, and a 48% decline in the company's high division. Five is the tire company ushered in a high profit. Tyre products are mainly sold in the aftermarket, the price decline is slow, the tire industry to fully benefit from the decline in raw material prices, the two-quarter tire industry and the main listed companies to make a record profit.　　CICC expects the second-quarter results of the company to increase 55%, the Qingdao double star Growth 148%, the Guizhou tire growth 120%. Pay attention to commercial vehicles and parts companies in the context of falling costs and demand rebound, tire stocks reached a record high in the two quarter, CICC raised the 2009 and 2010 earnings forecast to 0.78 yuan and 0.70 yuan, the rise of the shares in 2009, 2010 profit forecast to 0.65 yuan and 0.70 yuan. RBCD High-tech Joint Venture Co., Ltd. the high pressure common rail products by the EGR impact slightly lower than expected, the increase of its 2009, 2010-year profit forecast to 0.35 yuan and 0.41 yuan, Changan car's micro-car and its Changan Ford performance reversal, up its 2009, 2010 earnings forecasts to 0.40 yuan and 0.45 yuan.　　CICC proposes to focus on commercial vehicles and parts companies that tend to be better and less valued in the second half of the year. Heavy truck and big China guest industry will fully benefit from the economic recovery, sales growth in the second half of the year will shift to positive growth, light truck industry will also be stimulated by the car to the countryside, recommend investors focus on Yutong bus, Weichai Power, Futian automobile, Jiangling Motor, Jianghuai Automobile and Jinlong automobile; At the same time will benefit from the second half of the export demand recovery, it is recommended that investors focus on the allocation of China Automotive, Fuk Yiu Glass, FAW-rich peacekeeping in the tripod shares, concern the second half of the fundamental improvement of the company's shares; in the sales growth forecast, the passenger car listed companies valuation relatively high, suggested that investors strategic holding passenger cars leading company FAW sedan and Shanghai Automobile　, pay attention to the outstanding performance of Changan automobile. Cicc