Prevent hot money to fry food prices by drought

The first trading day after the spring festival, domestic and foreign wheat futures surged, reflecting the market for wheat and other major food crops to reduce production expectations. Although the drought will cause wheat production to be seen, but by the global production, costs and other factors to promote the trend of the moderate rise in wheat prices, the domestic control of the inflation situation is facing a new test.　　Therefore, the need to prevent hot money by drought speculation wheat and other major agricultural products. With the increase in the price of agricultural products such as fertilizers, agricultural implements, plastic film, diesel and other external costs such as basic necessities for farmers, inflation will become the main line of the commodity market in the 2011.　　Even without droughts, the trend towards the long-term rise of major agricultural products, such as wheat, is unavoidable. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) recently announced that the global Price index for foodstuffs reached 231 in January 2011, the 1990-year high since its inception.　　The group's economists believe that rising food prices will continue for months to come. The experts ' predictions are not unfounded.　　In the international wheat market, Russia and Eastern Europe once banned winter wheat exports, a century of floods also caused the major food exporters in Australia to reduce production, the U.S. Midwest and Argentina and other grain-producing areas are also suffering from extreme weather effects of production.　　The international grain production situation shows that if the domestic wheat cut production this year, rely on imports to ease the demand for manoeuvre space is limited.　　And from the inventory, according to statistics, as of November 2010, China's wheat inventory consumption ratio maintained at around 50%, which is much higher than 18% of international standards, but given the situation of many people, this proportion is difficult to fall. Although with onion ginger garlic and other "small plate stock" compared, speculation wheat such a "large stock" needs huge sums of money, and the wheat has a sound national reserve can stabilize prices, but in the current market hot money is keen to hype the situation of agricultural products, to beware of drought caused by the wheat yield forecast, become idle speculation excuses.　　From the recent trend of the international and domestic wheat futures market, this speculation is already forming. Overall, wheat prices may continue to rise, but after a 2010-year rally, the gains will gradually fall.　　In addition, there has been a major change in monetary policy this year and a moderately loose monetary environment has ceased to exist. More importantly, since 2011, the policies that have been put in place have underscored the determination of the State to maintain food stability and increase production and manage inflation expectations.　　There is every indication that in China, where most of the reserves are in the hands of the government and the domestic food market is deeply affected by the policy, domestic wheat prices are extremely unlikely to fluctuate. According to the Ministry of Agriculture data, as of February 4, eight of the northern China's winter wheat drought area of 96.11 million mu, accounting for eight of winter wheat planting area of 35.1%, accounting for eight of the cultivated land area 21.7%, drought winter wheat areas and production accounted for more than 80% of the country. But compared to 2009 national drought area Peak 161 million mu, the current drought degree is still "moderate".　　And 2009, our country wheat also achieved incomes. More than 80% of the wheat fields in the drought province are watered, even if the drought persists, as long asChun Gua measures are put in place to minimize the effects of drought. In view of the above, the drought has a limited impact on domestic wheat prices.