Price rises may peak in July

Unless August China is still suffering from torrential rains or other adverse weather effects, CPI should peak in July, "Caixin Net" (reporter Jing) in spite of factors such as natural disasters, July CPI hit a new year, but, the second half of the CPI upward pressure will be reduced, the annual price to maintain basic stability.　　The National Bureau of Statistics said August 11 that CPI rose 3.3% per cent year-on-year in July, creating a New year high, mainly due to the tail-cutting factors and the sharp rise in food prices.　　Laiyun, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the July CPI year-on-year increase of 2.2% is the tail factor, the other 1.1% is caused by a sharp rise in food prices.　　July, food CPI rose 6.8% Year-on-year, the chain Rose 0.9%, of which, fresh vegetables prices rose to 4.3%. Laiyun that, in spite of the current changes in agricultural prices there is some uncertainty, especially the international wheat production in the domestic market has a certain stimulus, but the impact of the CPI downlink factors are many.　　In general, the effect of curbing price increases is likely to outweigh the effects of pushing up prices, which remain basically stable throughout the year.　　Zhang, a macro analyst at China International Finance Limited, believes the CPI may still face greater upward pressure in the coming months, but will gradually fall to around 3% by the end of the year. Zhang Zhiwei analysis said that domestic food consumption depends mainly on domestic supply, international food prices have little impact on the domestic market.　　Grain harvests in the past six years have left China's food reserves at half its annual grain consumption enough to cope with the potential imbalance between supply and demand. Second, Non-food CPI may face downward pressure as China's economy may gradually slow in the second half.　　Zhang Zhiwei that CPI Non-food parts accounted for the overall proportion of CPI two-thirds, this part of the price stability of the overall inflation level plays an important role.　　In addition, the United States in the second half of the European economy is facing challenges, the international commodity market price increases are less likely, the risk of imported inflation is not.　　As for the second half of the impact of the CPI factor, Laiyun pointed out that after August, the impact of the end of the CPI began to weaken, June, July warping effect is 2.2%, the August factor will fall back to 1.7%, September is 1.3%, its impact on the CPI rise is weakening.　　The new Nomura research report argues that unless China is still hit by torrential rains or other bad weather in August, the CPI should have peaked in July, and the July PPI decline should further reduce fears of a 2010 inflation. According to data released today by the National Bureau of Statistics, the factory price index for manufactured goods in July rose 4.8% per cent, or 1.6% from June.　　July PPI rose significantly below market expectations.　　In early August, the finance and new media sent questionnaires to 21 financial institutions ' research departments, and 18 economists who responded to the questionnaire predicted a mean 5.5% for July PPI, with a minimum forecast of 5%. For other factors to curb CPI inflation, Laiyun said that the relevant departments of the market Order management,Regulation of market price behavior has also played a role, "the management of inflation expectations is good." ”