Prices could hit record highs in four quarters

Property unharmed four quarter, many real estate prices may have also created a record high this week's market, is undoubtedly the property sector Taibaodalan.　　So what do we think of the spot property market?　　The pace of China's economic recovery seems increasingly clear, and there is no longer a fear of deflationary pressures brought on by shrinking demand, and expectations seem to have shifted to inflationary inflation. Will real estate explode again in future inflation, leading China's economy to share prosperity in its own bubble accumulation?　　This is related to the survival of the market, but also I am concerned about the core issues, of course, we are very concerned about. Real estate is the rebound backbone I said in the middle of the discussion of the rebound, because of the existence of rigid demand and to inventory after the cost of retreat, before the economic reversal, there must be a result of the intermediate rebound.　　Real estate is undoubtedly the backbone of the rally, determined by its position in the Chinese economy's domestic demand and investment composition. I also emphasize that there is a two-dip process in the transition between rebound and reversal. So, at this point in time, that is, my early judgment of the intermediate rebound is expected to end, this round of real estate rebound, how the future will be the way to evolve, how long can the rebound continue? Will there be a real estate bubble in the fast-growing credit boom? If there is such a bubble in the future, how will it be released? Is it a brutal, rapid explosion, or a gradual change in space?　　This time, the development of our real estate market will not be the same way as others walk?　　The dual nature of real estate in the current transition to an economic growth model, there is likely to be a turbulent period of economic growth, in which investment and inflation go together, and each economic growth feast will end in the funeral of inflation and asset bubbles.　　After such pains, new and more viable industries and enterprises will grow rapidly, become the new leading industry, guide China's economy to mature, into a new stage of economic development. I judged that China's real estate market and Japan's development path is different, is unlikely to maintain a moderate upward trend, and may go South Korea's way, that is, moderate downward. Because China is no longer likely to repeat Japan's need for a sustained recovery, but more akin to South Korea's investment to boost domestic demand. At the beginning of this investment-driven domestic demand, only the real estate sector can be competent, China's urbanization is also continuing the process of evolution. But in the medium term, due to the absence of the Chinese middle class, there is no lasting core competitiveness.　　In fact, real estate as an economic engine, generally only in the late industrialization.　　So, I think the real estate has a good momentum, but there may be adjustments again.　　The short-term development path of Chinese real estate may be short term (within one year), we are mainly concerned about two issues, one, the real estate will not produce a national bubble; two, there is no possibility of two dip. In the first quarter, China's real estate after a year of adjustment, housing prices completed the firstOne Touch bottom. The start of the February turnover rebounded, mainly in a series of real estate implementation of the New deal, the release of rigid demand.　　And in the two quarter after the start, the volume of the record to create a new high, two quarters of the volume of transactions, is rigid demand and investment needs of the joint outbreak of the results.　　So from the beginning of the three quarter of the year, the future of the real estate deductive path? I think that, in the two quarter of the macroeconomic data rebound, under the conditions of the liquidity is still loose, in the case of inflation expectations remain unchanged, the growth of real money demand for enterprises and residents will decline, so that the rapid decline in savings growth, real estate investment demand continues to expand, The result of the investment demand is that the price continues to rise, the rigid demand in the three quarter is stimulated by the investment demand, still has the hope of maintaining the high turnover.　　At the same time, because of last year's Land financial constraints, the local government has a lot of the willingness to push, developers of the enthusiasm is likely to be fully burst. And in the four quarter after October, many real estate prices may have created a record high. So how big is the new high? This depends on the intensity of the investment demand.　　The current China is different from Japan's adoption of aggressive monetary policy, the future of the rebound in the height and sustainability will largely depend on the strength of investment demand. In terms of the purchasing power of rigid demand, there is no room for any further rise in housing prices. The dominant factor in supporting this round of investment demand is a loose monetary policy at low interest rates and a 2008-year cumulative savings growth. But in the four quarter, residents ' savings growth is likely to reach a new low.　　The decline in turnover is inevitable.　　After the beginning of the quarter, the supply of real estate will again reach a new climax, the new pre-sale will be a large number of new projects, the increase in the area has reached a rebound of high, in the volume of the fall, the pressure of inventory rise again. At the same time, local affordable housing will also be heavily in the market. And, in the four quarter, commodity prices are likely to reach a historic high again, and the pressure for imported inflation will emerge again. So from the point of view of supply and demand, do not support the short-term emergence of a large national housing bubble.