Profit and cost "tug of war" banking medium-term net profit or increase 30%

China Merchants Bank (600036.　　SH,03968.HK, hereinafter referred to as "CMB" performance of 50% of the announcement, or will blow the bank's mid-term performance of the Horn.　　In the first half of the year, net spreads, the key indicator of bank profits, have been in a "tug of war" state: the credit scale control and the money market interest rate soaring raise the bank's bargaining power, which leads to the increase of the asset income, while the "6 30" ratio of loan to deposit has led to the white-hot of the bank deposit competition, and finally reflects the rising of the capital cost.　　Many banking analysts said that despite the negative impact of the loan-to-deposit ratio requirements on net spreads, the quality of credit assets is now stable and the bank's performance will continue to grow considerably this year. The Oriental Securities Research report predicts that in 2010, the median bank performance grew by an average of 32% per cent year-on-year.　　And Wanguo is expected, large banks net profit growth is expected to reach more than 20%, the people's livelihood, Huaxia and other banks in the medium term net profit growth can exceed 50%; other joint-stock banks and City firms can reach 30%~50%. The main determinants of bank spreads in the first half of the year are the regulation of credit scale, the soaring interest rate in the money market and the requirement for annual loan-to-deposit ratio.　　Jinlin, an analyst with Oriental Securities and banking, said the first two had a positive effect on spreads and the latter had a negative impact on spreads. In the area of credit control, credit in January continued to surge in 2009, leading to a severe regulatory credit-scale control.　　In order to control the scale of credit, even some banks temporarily closed the credit approval system. The relationship between supply and demand determines commodity prices. The control of credit scale significantly improves the bargaining power of banks.　　But due to the rise in bargaining power at the end of the first quarter, its contribution to the first quarter is limited, the two-quarter spreads have a positive impact. Money market interest rates, since late May, the interbank bond market funding level of tension has intensified, and there have been rare, including national commercial banks, City firms and other commercial banks, such as the collective lack of money in the state.　　Last week, the central bank issued the "May Financial market operation" also said that the market liquidity tightened, money market interest rates quickly and sharply upward.　　Bank of international analyst Li Shanshan said that the first half of the money market interest rates soared, to some extent, played a role in pushing up the spread of banks. It is under the influence of these factors, the market generally believe that if the 2009 bank is a "volume of premium" profit strategy, 2010 will be converted to "price replenishment."　　Since the second half of last year, the pick-up in bank net spreads has confirmed the above judgment. But surprisingly, the regulatory level's demand for loan-to-deposit ratios has led to a bank's desperate desire for deposits.　　The contention for deposits has been white-hot among banks, which has led to a rise in the cost of deposits, which has a negative impact on net spreads.　　Integration of various factors as a whole, the net interest trend is like a tug of war, the two ends are the increase in asset income and the increase in capital costs. The Oriental Securities Research report says the net spreads may be lower this year than before "higher than in 200910~15BP "expected.　　The second quarter of the spreads on the chain is difficult to rise, but should be basically stable, individual banks a slight decline. NET spreads are not as good as expected medium-term results in the next one months, 14 listed banks will continue to disclose the 2010-year report.　　Although the net spreads are not performing as expected, most of the industry is still expecting a better performance from the interim results Bank. An official from the state-owned bank said that the banks ' non-performing loans are at the best level in history.　　After last year's volume of credit, it is now entering a harvest period, with a significant increase in bank profits this year, compared with the low base last year. In fact, medium-and long-term loans that were heavily invested last year are unlikely to be exposed in the short term.　　Objectively speaking, the current level of asset quality in the Chinese banking industry is at the best level in history. "Stable asset quality, better spreads over the same period last year, and other factors to ensure that the medium-term banking sector has a significant performance."　　"Jinlin believes that for the outside world to pay more attention to the local government financing platform loans, from the current bank self-examination, the banks of such loans are very low non-performing rate." The Oriental Securities Research Report predicts that 2010-year bank performance growth averaged at 32% per cent year-on-year.　　According to the report, the quotation was based on the logic that the bank's performance would be relatively prominent in the early stages of the downturn due to a lag in bank profitability.　　Coincidentally, Wanguo research reports that, in addition to the CMB, there are still some banks in the medium term net profit growth rate can exceed 50%, such as Minsheng Bank (excluding non-recurrent profit and loss), Huaxia Bank, other joint-stock banks and City firms can reach the 30%~50%, large banks net profit growth is expected to reach more than 20% In the 2009, the bank generally adopted the "amount of price" strategy, but the results of 2009 years of the report is not satisfactory: ICBC, BOC, CCB, the CMB 2009 annual net profit growth rate of 2.76%, 2.45%, 4.21% and 37.62%.