Property market facing long-term regulation four quarter difficult optimism

Securities Times reporter Zhang Juobin for the property market two times regulation, the World Union real Estate Research department released the report yesterday pointed out that according to the domestic 14 city turnover and the price trend, the national property market existence "two times to touch the bottom" the Operation Law, four quarter property market unspeakable optimism.　　The World Union studies that the property market in the regulation and control measures are not exhausted (such as: property tax), to do a good job in the housing market long-term regulation and preparation. The World Union real Estate Research department believes that this regulation should be the recent housing construction department, the CBRC and other relevant ministries of the property market research results.　　At the beginning of September, affected by the August property market rebound, the State Council, even if the Ministry of Housing and the CBRC to report the city, recently the two ministries and the joint verification of two mortgages, from these actions that the central government is ready to deal with the new changes in the property market. According to the National Bureau of Statistics data show: January-August, the National Real estate development investment 2.8355 trillion yuan, an increase of 36.7%, of which, the commodity residential investment 1.9876 trillion yuan, the year-on-year growth of 33.9%, the proportion of real estate development investment is 70.1% National Real estate Development Enterprise Housing construction area of 3.392 billion square meters, an increase of 29.1% per cent, housing new starting area of 1.048 billion square meters, the growth of 66.1%; building completed area of 323 million square meters, an increase of 10.7% , the National Real estate Development Enterprises completed the land acquisition area of 256.91 million square meters, an increase of 37.9%.　　The increase in the completed area of housing means that the property market can increase supply in a short period of time, the housing construction area, the real estate development investment and the substantial increase of land acquisition area will mean a substantial growth in the long-term supply of the property market, and the expected increase in the future housing supply will ease the current tense supply In addition, a large number of security housing construction. Recently, the Department of Housing construction requires all the housing projects to be completed by the end of September, the end of the year or basically built to achieve more than 60%.　　If calculated according to the 5.8 million sets of this year (including low-rent housing, public rental, squatter settlements, etc.), the year-end supply of nearly 3.5 million sets will be available, which would effectively divert demand from the property market. The combination of the two effects adds to the market's sales volume. Shenzhen, for example, is home to 25478 sets of unsold homes (late September), the highest in the year.　　Supply of amplification, on the one hand, will lead to a slowdown in prices, on the other hand, the buyers have more options, in the case of stable prices, or will lead to a slowdown in the transaction speed. From the perspective of capital, credit as an important factor in the property market is facing a profound change, or will change the four quarter of this year's property market trend. First, there is not much left in the four-quarter credit plan. On this year's national "two sessions", Premier Wen Jiabao said credit scale of 7.5 trillion this year, but completed 5.71 trillion of the credit volume in January-August this year, only 1.79 trillion of the loan in September-December, the average monthly credit scale of less than 450 billion. Second, the tightening of credit controls, the central bank's request to raise the minimum down to 30%, a moratorium on three mortgages and related two mortgages, which also allowed the four quarter property market trendShadows.