Prospects for real estate stocks in the overall economy return to stability

With Hong Kong's economy steadily stabilizing, stocks are starting to rebound. However, after breaking the 17,000 mark, the Hang Seng index has accumulated a greater risk, the volatility of the characteristics are gradually increasing.　　To determine whether the current market is in the real bottom of the region, the most important thing is to see whether the Asia-Pacific economy, especially the largest economic relevance of the domestic overall macro-economy can be out of the trough, to achieve economic recovery. The trend of the real estate industry in the inland fixed assets investment is very important to the future macro-economy. For now,　　The major Chinese property shares listed in Hong Kong in 2008 have a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.7 times times, valuation level is not low, rising space is limited; but if the real estate market in the second half of this year, especially after August, can maintain the continuous upward trend of turnover, developers ' enthusiasm for investment may be gradually driven, thus pushing up the overall valuation level of Hong Kong-listed housing stocks.　　According to statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, January-April this year, the country's real estate market sales grew 17.5% year-on-year, sales growth of 35.4%, the overall real estate market is significantly better than the first quarter of this year, including Beijing and Guangdong sales area year-on-year growth rate of 107.5% and 40.8% respectively. The future of the mainland real estate market transactions may also be a big change, this is because: first of all, the current transaction of the large uplink can be understood to be from the second half of last year, about 9-10 months of demand release;　　Before the future market is not a clear judgment, most developers are still on the initiative to shrink the front, slowing the pace of the operation of the State; third, the management of the two-suite loan restrictions on the relaxation of the tax and other aspects of preferential policies also played a certain role in promoting. At present, the mainland real estate market is still in a "go to inventory" of the state, because the company's own investment will not be obvious, the Hong Kong market in the short term to maintain the volatility trend of domestic housing stocks, most of the housing unit will face a decline in profitability, the risk of lower profit levels. But in the medium and long term, if the overall turnover stable rebound, the internal housing stock will continue to rise.