PV industry Upstream products Polysilicon Price

such as the domestic polysilicon leading Enterprise Poly GCL (03800. HK), the new Energy (NYSE:DQ) announced this year's expansion plan, overseas companies such as Germany Wacker Wacker also have the same intention.

The demand for solar and semiconductor-grade polysilicon is expected to rise sharply to 280,000 tonnes in 2014, according to the Solarbuzz report. And an industry analyst calculates that demand and global supply calculation this year will reach a global polysilicon supply and demand ratio of 1.4, or 40% more supply than demand, compared to 3 in 2013. "While there has been a significant improvement over overcapacity in 2013, there is still a need to be wary of a new round of overcapacity," he said. "the analyst said.

For this phenomenon, the vice president of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and Chairman of Silicon Industry branch Zhong also issued a warning that the current signs that the new round of low levels of polysilicon blind expansion has begun, should cause the industry to attach great importance to.

Domestic capacity will reach 150,000 tonnes this year

this year's wave of polysilicon expansion is surging, almost all the domestic polysilicon leading companies have announced their own expansion plans.

The 2014-year improved Siemens Law Project and the million-ton silane fluidized bed project in poly-Silicon Co. Xinjiang Special Transformer Electrician (600089) The existing 12,000 tons of annual production capacity will reach full production status; At the same time, Wacker will be in Xinjiang with the special transformer to invest in an annual output of 36,000 tons of new projects; The new energy capacity will be expanded from the original 6200 tons to 12,000 tons this year, its 2015 will also expand the production of 13,000 tons, to achieve a total capacity of 25,000 tons; Inner Mongolia The Gu Shenzhou silicon Industry will expand to 3000-4000 tonnes. The

is roughly estimated by the above data, with polysilicon capacity to reach 150,000 tonnes in 2014. And just over the last 2013, in order to inhibit the overcapacity of polysilicon, according to the State Council on the promotion of the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry, a number of views (National Hair "2013" 24th), the Ministry of Industry also promulgated the "PV manufacturing sector norms", the elimination of a part of the outdated technology, equipment, the old polysilicon enterprises

Zhong said that in areas such as Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, there are still new project plans to announce an annual output of tons or even 50,000 tons of coal resources. The silicon industry in Inner Mongolia will expand to 50,000 tons of capacity by March 2015, compared with its current capacity of about 6000 tonnes, according to a report from an industry insider to the 21st century economic reporter. On the other hand, China's imports of polysilicon products from Europe and the United States last year were reversed, but the number of imported polysilicon is still increasing. Statistics show that China's polysilicon imports in 2013 of about 80,000 tons, still remain high, occupy the countryThe proportion of demand in the market continued to be around 50% for several years. 2014, the German manufacturers such as Wacker and OCI have expansion plans, Hua, Samsung and so on will have tons of capacity to achieve production, the Japanese mountain in Malaysia's two phase of 14,000 tons of capacity is expected to be put into production in the next year, the main areas of its products are in China.

A technical genre of contention

Zhong that if China's polysilicon companies compete to expand production regardless of market demand, coupled with the influx of overseas polysilicon, the momentum of domestic polysilicon supply and demand balance will soon be broken, the PV industry may return to the winter of 2012 years. The break in supply and demand also means that the price of polysilicon may fall back to last year's trough.

In this respect, Lu Jin-peo, deputy general manager of GCL-Poly, told the 21st century Economic report that the price of polysilicon reached its all-time low last year, with an average of only 17 dollars/kg in the whole year, which began to rise in the quarter, and has now exceeded 20 USD/kg, and whether the price of polysilicon Also looked at the four quarterly new technology of Silane fluidized bed production.

Even more serious, "the current domestic enterprises are almost all using the modified Siemens process, while overseas, the silane fluidized bed technology has emerged." Zhong to reporters.

According to Lu Jin-peo, the advantage of the silane fluidized bed process is that: the first can greatly save energy consumption, silane fluidized bed full power consumption under 25 degrees, is the best of the existing modified Siemens method of about 35%; second, reduce costs, the second generation of the third generation of silane fluidized bed technology to the volume of postpartum, To reduce the full cost of polysilicon to below 10 USD/kg is now half the best modified Siemens method.

He also told reporters that this year poly-ton will have tons of silane fluidized bed project into the equipment installation phase, it is not yet estimated how much output, but poly-GCL has been planning in 3 years to gradually eliminate the existing improvement of Siemens law projects.

It is also understood that silane fluidized bed technology has been tested in other Chinese enterprises. The United States Rec and Shaanxi Tianhong recently signed a 18,000-ton building agreement that is expected to start production in 2016 or 2017. Prior to this, the rec United States already has 1.8 tons of silane fluidized bed is running, except poly-GCL 1000 tons of pilot project, the world's only production lines.

Zhong said that, given the advent of the new technological revolution, the polysilicon industry, with its core of improved Siemens law, could not be blindly duplicated in the period of technological transformation, avoiding the discontinuation of the project because of lack of competitiveness.