PVC: Demand season is worth looking forward to the price difficult breakthrough

⊙ contributing Authors Information ⊙ the PVC market trend of 2008 years is very obvious: the first half of the year continued to rise, the second half of the slide. 2008, the top price of PVC is indeed higher than last year, but the actual profit, but let all participants frustrated. Especially after the second half of the financial crisis, the cost advantage of the calcium carbide method is no longer; conversely, the continued decline in crude oil prices led to the production cost of ethylene reduction, calcium carbide law industry is facing a whole industry loss of the situation, the highest loss in thousand Yuan. Affected by this, a large number of calcium carbide PVC production device to stop or reduce output.　　At this point, we also found that the cost line is not the bottom line of prices. Through the sad and happy 2008, in the shadow of the financial crisis, we entered 2009 years. As the first quarter of 2009, the domestic PVC market trend is not satisfactory. Although the new year began, but under the impact of the financial crisis, the second half of 2008 Black continued to extend in 2009, when the demand of the traditional off-season encounter a global financial tsunami, downstream demand bleak degree can be. Although there have been several small rallies in the market, it is a flash in the pan.　　Throughout the first quarter, the price of domestic electric stone has been in the price range of 5900 to 6300 yuan/ton shocks. The main factors affecting the market: 1, the supply and demand situation: No matter what the impact, ultimately the final transmission to the product supply and demand changes, supply and demand situation adjustment is the main factor to determine the market trend. If the demand is strong, the product price is naturally more ideal, on the contrary, the market trend is poor.　　The market since the second half of 2008 has been a good indication of the impact of demand support on market movements. If the current domestic PVC equipment capacity, overcapacity is beyond doubt. However, we should also note that the PVC industry in China has a serious problem of low operating rate of equipment. According to our rough statistics, the current domestic PVC industry overall installation load of about 60%, and 2008 supply and demand situation (08 country production 8.82 million tons, capacity 15.6 million tons, installation started 56.5%, the apparent demand is 9 million tons) compared to We can say that the current domestic PVC market is basically in the situation of supply and demand balance.　　Although the two or three quarter as a traditional season, demand has the possibility of gradual recovery, but we also face the increase in national production and imports, late installation and new production will make this balance to tilt, and a large number of imported materials are pouring in, these have become a constraint on the late PVC market trend of hidden dangers. 2, raw material prices: China is based on calcium carbide method of PVC production country, the current domestic calcium carbide method and ethylene plant capacity ratio of 3:1, so the trend of calcium carbide prices directly affect the domestic PVC market changes. After the opening of the Spring Festival, that is, the beginning of February, due to the arrival of calcium carbide around, and the PVC plant has not been promoted, calcium carbide due to abundant supply led to price decline, some calcium carbide law enterprises to reduce losses, so the device startedIncreasing, the increase of PVC supply caused price lower.　　At the beginning of March, the National Development and Reform Commission, such as the issuance of documents required to cancel the high energy consumption of the industry before March 15, after the production of many calcium carbide enterprises in the northwest, caused by the shortage of calcium carbide due to the source of tension and price increases, PVC cost promotion also directly promote domestic PVC market PVC Market Prospects in the late 2008: Domestic PVC apparent demand reached 9 million tons, 10.02% less than 2007, of which 8.82 million tons of domestic production, accounting for 91.15%, import volume 797,500 tons accounted for 8.85%. 2008 capacity of 15.6 million tons, and according to our statistics, 2009 domestic PVC plan new production capacity of about 2 million tons, an increase of 18.58%.　　Taking into account the current profitability of the industry, some of the new projects will be temporarily stranded or indefinitely delayed, conservative estimates, the new capacity will also be 1 million tons. Comprehensive analysis of 2009, the two or three quarter demand season is still worth looking forward to, the price in demand warmer guidance, is expected to appear two waves of rising prices. But given the impact of the overall economic environment, demand will not appear in previous years hot situation, this year's demand is expected to maintain the level of 9 million tons last year, in addition to the late device expansion, the impact of imported materials, the price is difficult to make a big breakthrough, single General Electric stone, standing on the 7000 yuan/ton of the pass, There are also great difficulties.