Real economic growth remains sluggish

(Reporter Lu Xianwen) in August, the manufacturing Purchasing managers Index (PMI), compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Procurement (CFLP), rose from 51.2% in July to 51.7%. Although the official PMI data have been seasonally adjusted, the PMI data is historically significantly seasonal, with August PMI often higher than the July data.　　As a result, after another season, the PMI was roughly flat last month in August, indicating that the growth rate of manufacturing activity is still significantly below its trend, and that further declines in the production and import component indices suggest that the real economy is still weak in August. Goldman Sachs analysts believe the industrial value added data, to be released on September 13, will more accurately reflect the real growth rate of August. If the industry's value-added data coincided with the current weak performance of PMI data, Goldman Sachs would face greater downside risks to China's forecast of 2010 GDP growth of 10.1%. However, a slight improvement in the component indicators for new orders in August may indicate a rebound in real economic growth in the near term. It is noteworthy that the new export order composition index has not shown a significant downward trend since March.