Real estate business capital chain full pressure profiteering is about to go away

Xiaoling limit purchase + increase in the superposition effect has emerged, Beijing pre-sale funds supervision of the New Deal again a heavy blow, industry estimates, only this one, real estate developers 40% of the source of funds will be blocked.　　From the two quarter of this year, the continued contraction of developers financing channels and the substantial increase in the cost of financing is a fait accompli, from the development of loans, loans, capital markets, trusts and other links are blocked, the whole industry capital chain unprecedented pressure. This reporter learned that, after the interest rate hike, including Vanke, investment and other leading housing enterprises in the financial impact analysis, the conclusion is limited short-term impact, but for the whole industry, the financial chain crisis may have just emerged.　　The continuous limit of purchase and capital cost increase, will make some housing enterprises face the risk of capital chain rupture.　　The financial leverage ratio of Beijing's latest "commercial housing pre-sale funds supervision and management interim measures" provisions, commercial housing pre-sale funds should be deposited in the supervision of exclusive accounts, to ensure priority for the project construction, strictly prohibit the housing enterprises directly to the pre-sale of commercial housing funds. Beijing Lian Da Quartet general manager Yang Shaofeng, in the composition of the housing enterprise funds, commercial housing pre-sale money can usually reach 40% in the capital chain of the use rate, and the housing enterprises usually own funds accounted for only 20%-30% of a project.　　If the project net profit reaches 20%, its own capital investment return can reach 100%, and if the development rhythm and the capital market operation is more ingenious, the housing enterprise can realize the leaping expansion. 21st Century Real Estate Group market director Lin Lei that the pre-sale supervision will be the developer's capital chain impact is unprecedented. According to the Beijing Bureau of Statistics, the latest data, in Beijing, deposit and pre-sale funds accounted for about 1/4 of developer funds, the total amount of billions of dollars, a large number.　　According to the Central Plains Real Estate Research center released August data show that in 2006-2009, pre-sale accounts for real estate development funding ratio of 40%. However, as the scheme will be implemented on December 1, Soho China Chairman Pan Shiyi believes that the impact of the scheme will not be reflected until six months later.　　He went on to say that if the land supply is insufficient and the developers are short of capital, the supply will be greatly reduced, the main role of the method is to prevent financial risks, but it is not good for curbing house prices. By contrast, the direct impact of earlier interest rate hikes has been apparent. Guotai Famous Real estate analyst Jianping said, for developers, the increase in interest rates after the rise in the impact of the interests of a very little, and the decline in sales of its capital chain has a greater impact.　　Last week, institutions monitored the volume of major cities, more than 30% of the decline. Financial pressure on developers is growing. In addition to the more depressed real estate sales (the direct result of interest rate hikes), the cash flow is even more scarce, and the financing costs of developers will increase.　　The interest rate sensitivity analysis of UBS Securities shows that the 25-point rate hike has the greatest impact on Greentown/Longhu property, and its expected net profit for 2011 will fall by 4.5%, 2.5% and 2.1% respectively. Price reduction is a big probability event investmentReal Estate Securities representative Zengfan to this newspaper, said that the interest rate hike will directly increase the cost of enterprise capital, but because the company in the possible interest rate cycle before the arrival, has adjusted the debt structure in advance, increase the proportion of medium and long-term loans, the term of the loan will be locked for 2-5 years, the interest rate　　Therefore, the impact on the company's capital costs is limited. But even if the company is as prudent as investment, from the third quarterly view, the year 15 billion sales target remains uncertain, the next sales are still under pressure; CIC Securities analyst Li Shaoming that the four-quarter company will take the volume as a strategy. "For ordinary commercial housing projects, we are also fast sales-oriented."　　"Zengfan said.　　Other such as Vanke, Evergrande, Poly and other front-line companies, adjusted prices before the end of the performance of the driving force is also very large. Guotai jianping that, from the industry, squeezing speculation, investment and the preservation of demand, the industry alone can not maintain the existing sales, it is difficult to maintain the current price.　　Future sales contraction and falling house prices will be a big probability event. Goldman Sachs Gao predicts that the game between the government, developers and homebuyers may continue for some time.　　With the local government to introduce regulatory policies, the mood of the buyers gradually rationalized, the financial situation of the developers will become weaker, and the increase in inventory will eventually affect the price. "Prices will fall by 20% over the current level in the next 12 months."　　Wang, an analyst at Goldman Sachs Gao Securities, says asset turnover is now more important than price in boosting earnings growth and equity valuations.　　The biggest crisis in 10 years? October 25, Vanke purchase Shenzhen Construction Group news aroused strong concern. Vanke insiders to this reporter that the incident is currently only in the inquiry stage, Vanke is only interested in the acquisition of one side.　　In addition, Vanke revealed that a number of projects and companies come to seek cooperation.　　Last week, China Merchants Real estate and poly Real estate for the first time to take the land, Zengfan reporters that cooperation is also a rapid expansion of the company an important way to merge into the report, you can expand the company's assets.　　Wang that, in the context of slowing industry growth, some developers will expand market share, including the rapid expansion of the Midwest business, focus on improving products, as well as financial stability, abundant sources of funds and strong implementation capacity of listed developers, is expected to become the future of industry integration, such as Vanke, Evergrande, its relatively optimistic. Jianping also said that in the industry adjustment period, more optimistic about high turnover of large companies, including Vanke, Poly and other leading stocks.　　Because of its high sales lock-in, is willing to reduce prices, in the market adjustment period to expand market share, have the strength to copy the land market. Analysts are wary of higher-debt-working and slower-moving housing firms.　　Goldman Sachs Gao this week to maintain a sales rating for Greentown, Oct, China International Trade and IFM Investment, IFM its preferred selling unit (located on a strong sell list). Yang Shaofeng that, from the market level, in April this year, Beijing issued a restricted purchase order, September 29, the nationwide implementation of the purchase, the real estate market dropped to freezing point, if the limit purchase order onlyis to make sales downturn, and the advance payment supervision once the national promotion, the entire real estate industry will face the biggest crisis in 10 years, not ready for the housing enterprises, capital chain break will be inevitable.　　A big drop in house prices and the frequency of uncompleted buildings may be on the scale again.　　Profiteering far from 1998 to 2009, is considered to be the industry's gold 10 years; But Vanke, poly companies have repeatedly stressed to reporters, from the past years, its gross margin has not changed much, because the price of land is rising, and the company is a rapid development model, it is impossible to hoard to stay house prices.　　More money is earned by local governments and investors. But it is undeniable that the real estate industry chain in the lucrative.　　And this year, for the industrial chain can bring the profit of each link, such as land value-added tax, raise the cost of loans, capital market financing, pre-sale funds supervision, etc. are sealed, greatly affecting the real estate developers capital cost and profitability level. "There has never been such a drastic adjustment.　　"A large property developer told this newspaper, the property market behind a series of measures, is the macroeconomic structure of the adjustment of ideas emerged, the high-level attempt to drag the real estate industry" kidnapping the Chinese economy, as a pillar of the importance of the industry gradually reduced. In the view of the capital market, the regulation of pre-sale funds has certain influence on the short-term market sentiment, but it still needs to see the actual execution effect.　　Industrial Securities analyst Wangxiaodong that the key factor in the future industry is the transaction, and the property tax is still the biggest uncertainty factor. In addition to the land finance and tax reform, which affects the property tax, the biggest structural adjustment of the domestic housing market is the top of the security house, "the current price of commercial housing even down 50%, there are still many people can not afford."　　"October 25, Vanke chairman Wang Shi and his friends," said the news conference, this part of the demand to be resolved by the government, and Singapore, Hong Kong and other areas of experience can be used for reference. But it is undeniable that the real estate industry chain in the lucrative.　　And this year, for the industrial chain can bring the profit of each link, such as land value-added tax, raise the cost of loans, capital market financing, pre-sale funds supervision, etc. are sealed, greatly affecting the real estate developers capital cost and profitability level. "There has never been such a drastic adjustment.　　"A large property developer told this newspaper, the property market behind a series of measures, is the macroeconomic structure of the adjustment of ideas emerged, the high-level attempt to drag the real estate industry" kidnapping the Chinese economy, as a pillar of the importance of the industry gradually reduced. In the view of the capital market, the regulation of pre-sale funds has certain influence on the short-term market sentiment, but it still needs to see the actual execution effect.　　Industrial Securities analyst Wangxiaodong that the key factor in the future industry is the transaction, and the property tax is still the biggest uncertainty factor. In addition to the land finance and tax reform, which affects the property tax, the biggest structural adjustment of the domestic housing market is the top of the security house, "the current price of commercial housing even down 50%, there are still many people can not afford." "October 25China Vanke chairman Wang Shi and his friends at a press conference said that this part of the demand to be resolved by the government, and Singapore, Hong Kong and other areas of experience can be used for reference.