Real estate market or the inflection point

December 14, the State Council executive meeting for the first time openly said to "curb" the rapid rise in housing prices, the meeting identified four measures to maintain a stable and healthy property market development. On December 9, at the State Council executive meeting, the "personal housing transfer business tax levy free time from 2 years to 5 years, other housing consumption policies continue to implement" deployment.　　On the same day, the National Development and Reform Commission director Zhang Ping said: "China will improve the housing consumption and regulation policy, increase the supply of low-priced and limit commercial housing, curb speculative housing." December 9-14th, in just one weeks, the real estate industry regulation and control policy gradually clear, the center of three major meetings of the real estate sector staged a great diversion of the drama.　　With the relevant housing policy dust settled, the industry generally believe that the development of Zhongshan property market is more stable, does not belong to the rapid rise of the city, so the temporary impact is not large, property prices will not because of the birth of the policy suddenly fell. The abolition of second-hand housing business tax concessions are double-edged sword December 29, 2008, in order to implement the State Council "on promoting the healthy development of the real estate market," the Ministry of Finance, the national Administration of Taxation jointly issued the "Personal House transfer business tax policy notice", Define the implementation rules of personal housing transfer business tax preferential policies: To change the business tax levy to 2 years from the 5 years of the original policy.　　After a year of out-gayed, personal housing transfer business tax exemption from 2 years to 5 years, means that the buyer's purchase cost increases, the public if you want to buy a set of intervention full 2 years, but less than 5 years, the value of 350,000 yuan second-hand housing, but to pay more than 17,500 yuan of business tax fees. According to reporter visit to understand, since the end of last year, the National Real estate policy has landed, Zhongshan second-hand housing trading volume rose, to November has reached 1884 sets, an area of 340,000 square meters, compared to the beginning of the year doubled. Among them, the individual housing transfer business tax preferential policy work. See the policy concession period will be, Zhongshan industry people generally think: tax concessions, directly caused by the cost of home purchase is a disguised. Thus lead to second-hand housing transactions will be changed, the difficulty of market transactions with the increase, but also to a certain extent, the market has been inhibited.　　It is expected that early next year, second-hand housing market is not optimistic, buyers wait and see the atmosphere will be further aggravated, trading volume will be significantly reduced. Zhongshan a certain production intermediary related director Liu said that the abolition of second-hand housing transactions business tax preferential policy is the country stabbed high house price bubbles, the first punch to fight property speculation. The transfer of second-hand housing sales tax exemption period from 2 years to 5 years, from the logical point of view, by increasing the transaction cost of the house, so as to reduce the "change of Hands" cycle, curb speculative behavior, thus promoting the return of rational prices.　　However, the wool is still out of the sheep, the current second-hand housing market is generally recognized by the rules of the home buyers bear all the tax, which is to further increase the purchase cost of home buyers, in fact, not only to cool prices, but to improve the price. NewThe introduction of Zhongshan house prices may fall less than the Chinese premier Wen Jiabao December 14 presided over the State Council executive meeting, at the meeting proposed including the increase of the effective supply of ordinary commodity housing, curb investment speculative purchase, strengthen market supervision, and large-scale promotion of affordable housing projects, and other initiatives to promote healthy development of the real estate market　　Insiders said that from the suppression of speculation to the cancellation of business tax concessions, and to curb the rapid rise in housing prices, a few days after the real estate policy orientation jumped out of the "trilogy", which means that the Government is intended to correct the industry's economic work in the center of the real estate policy misunderstanding and blind optimism Zhongshan Zhongyuan Real Estate plant said that, from the policy point of view, more countries on the future trend of the property market, and Zhongshan does not belong to that kind of property prices too fast rising city, therefore, the estimated temporary impact on the property market in Zhongshan is not. Property prices are expected to rise slightly in the first half of next year.　　However, the ultimate is to see the implementation of national policy efforts. Zhongshan Rich brilliant analyst Chen Binyi thought, next year whether the property market rises, mainly depends on several aspects, 1. Whether the economy continues to rebound　　2. Whether the policy has been implemented in a tight way; 3. The supply structure of products, whether sustained large supply; 4. Customers, consumer confidence is the effective continuation of the investment needs of a major increase; 5. The speculation of large-scale infrastructure, external force is effectively driven. Industry insiders say the central government is important to regulate house prices, but whether the regulation can reach the predetermined effect, still have very big variable, will encounter the lag effect, curb the examination target of the house price is marginalized, the local benefit and the livelihood component is not easy to swing and the distribution link and so on difficulty and the challenge, must break this kind of balance is not easy, therefore the house It may not be as easy as you think, and it takes a long process. The real estate market is very sensitive to the national policy, the country recently promulgated the policy and the present various factors impetus, the future property right inflection point looms, may appear in 2010 years.