Real Estate "small spring" perishable

Cash more common, the property market will again rallying wen/Yinbercheng * Due to the 3 April continued to appear a round of "small spring", the real estate voice again four.　　There is a "voice" that, with the arrival of "small spring", the domestic real estate cyclical adjustment is over, but more "sound" is still doubtful: is rigid demand really "small spring" the biggest power? is the real estate boom really coming? "Small Spring" has the truth carefully observe this round of "small spring", is actually concentrated in second-hand housing transactions, rather than the demand for new house volume. In the recent April Beijing and Shanghai transactions, second-hand housing transactions have increased, and new house transactions are not optimistic.　　Therefore, this round of "small spring" does not represent the overall real estate industry into a recovery period, the new open commodity housing still not out of the "winter", which means that the real estate is still at a low ebb.　　So, what is the increment basis of second-hand housing? On the one hand, since the fourth quarter of last year, the country and the local government has introduced a new policy to stimulate the property market, releasing a part of the pent-up demand for a long time; on the one hand, rigid demand is gaining opportunities from relatively subdued second-hand markets when property developers do not have deep lower prices. The ups and downs of house prices have allowed buyers to buy new homes in the "shot and stick" between the choice of more rational, the property market in the process of further adjustment, the competition between the buyers and sellers will be more intense.　　And what will happen next? The property market must move toward rallying in the game of the marketplace, the real estate business undertakes to digest the management pressure of the stock. DTZ research shows that Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou and other 9 major cities in the country now backlog of 2006 to 2008 in the construction of the inventory of about 38 million square meters of goods, digestion of these stocks will need 9 months or longer.　　So, how should the real estate enterprise game with the market? Game needs to have a quantitative indicator, this indicator is the personal housing mortgage credit. The most special place for real estate is not only the financial support to the suppliers, but also the financial support to the demand side. And the demand side of real estate financial support is the personal housing mortgage credit. 2009 1 to February personal housing mortgage loans 53.2 billion yuan, year-on-year negative growth.　　In particular, February 2009 personal medium and long-term loans only 13.7 billion yuan.　　Personal housing mortgage loan growth is a key indicator of real estate recovery, personal housing mortgage loans not only did not grow but the decline, coupled with the global economic recession is still continuing, the domestic economy has not come out of the downside risks, demand side cash more general situation, the property market is bound to move to rallying again. The most urgent task of real estate developers is to correctly judge the market of the future property market and accelerate the tax cuts positive measures to cut interest rates under the stimulus, control and demand side of the two kinds of rhythm: a homeopathic operation, the approach is "low price to go", in the early days of the housing market is warm, still go "low-cost route", with the price to pry sales; The other way is to reverse the operation of the market, the way is "slow test", by raising prices to stimulate buyers ofSentiment, pass to the market real estate price will not fall again the message.　　However, at a moment when the market outlook is uncertain, the "slow-growth test" should be used with caution. * The author is a doctoral tutor at Fudan University and director of Real Estate Economics center of Fudan University.