Ren Zhiqiang predicts house prices will fall 5% November policy or fine-tuning
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Yang liping "Falling house prices are a political issue. "July 3, Hua Yuan Real estate Chairman Ren Zhiqiang in the interview with an exclusive interview, pointed out that under such pressure, house prices are likely to return to the level of June last year, that is to say, the house price index will drop about four or five points." "Now I've dropped 1 more points. At the same time, Ren Zhiqiang also predicted that if the housing market continues to slump, the real estate investment growth this year or from the previous 30% down to about 10%, developers can not start, shutdown, but the impact of investment decline on local government or greater. "If you take into account the impact on local government and the overall economy next year, this November, this round of macro-control or fine-tuning." "Price reduction is already a political pressure is well-known, the previous Ren Zhiqiang's house price speech is" to rise ", and has thus attracted a curse sound, but Ren Zhiqiang this time although finally spoke to say down, but the words in some of the heart unwilling to love. "This is a political issue. Ren Zhiqiang pointed out that the Government through administrative measures to regulate the purpose is very clear, that is, to lower prices, he suggested that developers to reduce prices early, otherwise the government can introduce a more stringent policy of repression. Ren Zhiqiang said, 5 months, 12 of the cities have been rising too fast has been the growth of the chain. "If the regulatory measures continue, the real estate turnover slump will continue for a long time." But Ren Zhiqiang is still complaining about the current regulatory measures. "Political problems cannot be considered economically. "Not to solve the currency problem, but to solve the price problem is impossible." He pointed out that last June the industry suggested that if supply is not increased, there will be a serious shortfall in the first half of this year, a problem that ordinary developers can recognize, "something that has happened many times." He also admits that if the policy is not regulated from the point of view of market supply and demand, there will still be a rebound in housing prices. Ren Zhiqiang said some government officials spoke of the rise in housing prices in some cities too quickly, but did not specify what "part of the city" includes. Every city doesn't think its house prices are going up too fast. "The confusion and uncertainty of policy make it difficult for markets to make a clear choice." "For the regulation of house prices, Ren Zhiqiang that the price rises too fast cities can be regulated, but not that the national housing prices are to be adjusted." If according to the national average index, some region must rise, some must drop, "the regulation policy should not across." "But overall, house prices are on the rise. "November policy or fine-tuning" for how long macro-control policy will continue, Ren Zhiqiang predicts, "this November or have fine-tuning." "Ren Zhiqiang's reason is that, first of all, if the housing market continues to slump, the real estate investment growth this year will fall from the previous 30% to about 10%, the economic impact on the economy, especially next year will be very clear." As the economic pull of another engine exports, Ren Zhiqiang said, "the first half of the export is very good, but affected by the external economic situation, the second half of the foreign trade situation or not as optimistic, although not negative growth, but the increase may be in 5%-10%, if there is no more domestic investment, the superposition effect will have a huge impact on next year's economy. "And another driver of policy fine-tuning may come from local governments." Ren Zhiqiang that the effect of regulation on developers is that if the cash flow is not good, can not start or shutdown, but last year 4 trillion of the investment for local government is impossible to stop, the housing market downturn, resulting in local government land financial tension, while increasing the cost of affordable housing not only to let local governments lose land acquisition But also to increase its input. The local government is sadder than the developer's Day. "But it always is, the responsibility is in the local government. For the above reasons, Ren Zhiqiang believes that policy fine-tuning is entirely possible. "For example, the two suite policy will not be canceled, but the local government can be a little loose in the determination criteria." But fine-tuning is fine. "For the recent rumors of property taxes, Ren Zhiqiang said that if the real estate tax, should be the original land transfer, land use fees and other aspects of the tax cancellation, and then use the property tax to replace, and now many say that the new, which will increase the burden on the people, then this reform is difficult to implement. Ren Zhiqiang believes that the reform of the financial system and the monetary system, as well as the introduction of housing law is the fundamental way out of real estate development, all real estate problems if through the judicial solution, the real estate market will become healthier. Ren Zhiqiang admits that for Huayuan real estate, the second half of the buy land to buy land, what to do, will not be affected by regulation. "We are adopting the policies of farmers, and if we listen to what others say, we cannot grow wheat." ”
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