Ren Zhiqiang: The helplessness of house price income ratio is a tool to mislead the market

Most of the international use of two indices to measure the price of housing, and to judge the rationality of asset prices.　　One is a housing affordability index, which is a reasonable calculation, but most people who call themselves experts don't use it, or some people simply don't know it, so they have to use another "home price income ratio", which at least allows most people to see. However, it is regrettable that there is a strict definition of the calculated data to be adopted in the international "house price income ratio". If it is necessary to adopt the median of total income rather than the average, the median of the total housing cover rather than the average, the median of the total housing transaction price rather than the average, in particular the market average price of the first-hand commercial housing, It does not calculate the median or average price of affordable housing, housing, second-hand housing, etc.　　At present, most of the so-called experts ' calculations in China violate or do not know the basic definition and calculation principle of the median. So many people will use 100 square meters as the calculation standard, and the actual national housing covers the median area of only 76 square meters, Shanghai is only 66.1 square meters, Tianjin only 65.1 square meters. According to Wang Xiaolu income, China does not yet have strict personal income statistics, but more wage-oriented payroll statistics, at the same time, there are few tradable housing prices in the median.　　Most of these need to rely on a number of statistical synthesis, and our various so-called experts do not calculate, only simple use of various averages to estimate, the natural gap from the reality of huge, and the adverse impact on society is also very large. Developers ' housing pricing is unrelated to the calculation of house-price income ratios, perhaps to reverse correlation. The income ratio of house price can be used for macroscopic judgment, but it must not be aimed at personality choice. It is usually the age group of 30-40 who buys the million-dollar housing, which is precisely the group layer with relatively fast income growth, and therefore the higher relative price income.　　However, because of its rapid growth, is a rising income period, can not affect the family's decent living conditions under the higher repayment pressure, a few years later with the increase in income ratio of house prices will quickly decline.　　And 300,000 yuan to 500,000 yuan of the purchase of the relative income growth potential will be reflected in a longer period, so the multiple is too high, daily life will be affected by the pressure of repayment, so the income than the multiple will be lower than the previous level. In addition, China's population is in a fast-moving period, and the people at both ends of the income stream are the most concentrated. One is that high-income people are moving to the city with a lot of wealth, thus changing the income ratio of the city or region, but not being counted in the massive influx of money and wealth. Second, the flow of low-income migrant workers, these mobile population of the G D p in the local embodiment, a part of the income in the local embodiment, but a large number of wealth consumption may return to the city of domicile. So this causes the income of statistical data and the reverse gap between housing prices widened, and only the median statistics to exclude these mobile high-income and mobile low-income, a relatively reasonable evaluation.　　So China's housing income than in the absence of accurate median income statistics and no median price statistics into a misleading market and the public tool, not only can not have a clear understanding of the market, but to make the market more chaotic, become an embarrassing thing. It is better to give up the index that only professional calculation can draw the conclusion correctly, and to switch to the housing affordability index, it is easier for the decision makers to have a correct judgment on the market.