Ren Zhiqiang to shoot again: Real estate hit the GDP fell down

Reico Studio also said that 2010 house prices did not fall the reason overcast snow February 4 afternoon, the Chamber of Commerce in China, the Chinese city real estate Developers Strategic alliance established Reico Studio released the "2009-2010 China real Estate Market Report" (hereinafter referred to as "Reico report") Site, known as "real estate big Mouth," said Hua Yuan Group chairman Ren Zhiqiang again language out of the surprise: "Real estate hit down the GDP, the GDP fell, Wen Jiabao than our developers are also anxious." Even if the policy environment has been gradually tightened by loosening up and the central People's government has started to use the word "containment" to express its stance on real estate, he still stressed, "I never thought that it would be a crackdown on real estate." I think most of the government is to suppress some housing prices too fast growth in urban housing prices.　　The correct understanding of this, he argues, should be to curb investment, not suppress it. At yesterday's Reico report conference, the participants and developers agreed: "2009, the real estate market and macroeconomic synchronization to achieve a ' V '-shaped reversal."　　At the same time, the real estate sector, which is positively correlated with macroeconomics and GDP, will continue to rise in prices in 2010. There is no doubt that house prices soared in 2009. According to statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, Reico database Data, 2009 year, the total price of the chain Rose 7.75%, up 1.53% year-on-year, of which the fourth quarter of 2009 is to achieve a year-on-year rise of 5.8%. Among them, in four first-tier cities, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, housing prices rose fastest, commodity housing prices rose 19.7% and 14.1% respectively, Shenzhen Second-hand housing prices even rose 23.78%, in 70 large and medium-sized cities ranked first.　　Beijing's commercial and second-hand homes have risen 13% and 2.9% respectively, and Shanghai's commercial and second-hand homes have risen by 9.03% and 7.42% respectively. Reico Studio Dr Ningrongrong said that the correlation between China's housing price rise and GDP growth was: the trough of the real estate cycle lagged behind the economic cycle for one year, while the crest was ahead of the economic cycle for two years.　　According to the law, he said that in 2009 our economic cycle and real estate cycle reached a trough at the same time, so "now our real estate cycle and economic cycle should belong to the stage of recovery". It is based on the real estate and GDP growth show positive correlation, but also to many people in the industry to the Government will continue to support the real estate industry is full of expectations. In fact, with the easing policy of 2009, the overall rise in house prices has given developers unprecedented ample capital. The Reico report shows that after 2009 years of soaring home sales and moderately loose monetary policy, real estate developers are flush with cash, with a total of about 5.7 trillion yuan last year, up 44.2% from a year earlier. Among them, domestic loan 1.1293 trillion yuan, growth 48.5%, enterprise self-financing 1.7906 trillion yuan, growth 16.9%. 2009 premisesThe proportion of capital investment and real estate development of production and development enterprises is 1.58, which is the highest level since 2000. This means that even in the face of the 2008 market and Policy "dilemma", developers ' current financial position is enough to sustain them for a longer period than 2008. The economy and the real estate industry belong to the recovery cycle, the abundant fund of the developer and the 2010 possible price moderate rise, Reico studio Liu Lin that, "2010 years of house prices have no reason to fall, should be stable in the rise." "In the context of policy tightening, the housing market has begun to show a sharp decline in turnover, some cities in January the volume of new homes even less than the 2008 trough period." But Ren Zhiqiang still firmly said: "When the GDP is high, no country house price is falling, and also see in the process of high GDP, which country will play down the real estate." ”