Rethinking on the Twelve-Five planning of China's integrated circuit industry

 

At the end of February, the Ministry of Industry issued Twelve-Five development plans for integrated circuits. The content of the plan is very detailed, which involves the objectives, tasks, development emphases and policy measures, which is of great reference value to the development of the industry.     Planning once again clarified the strategic position of integrated circuit industry, which is the core and foundation of promoting the integration of informatization and industrialization, is the important support of transforming the mode of economic development, adjusting industrial structure and guaranteeing national information security, and possessing powerful integrated circuit technology and industry, is an important symbol for the innovation-oriented country. The     planning considers that the next 5-10 years is an important strategic opportunity period for the development of China's integrated circuit industry and a critical period for industrial development. We need to make great efforts to change the mode of development, adjust the industrial structure, take the technological innovation, mechanism system innovation and mode innovation as the driving force, promote the industrial core competitiveness, promote the industry to be bigger and stronger, and realize the continuous and rapid and healthy development of IC industry.     The author of China's integrated circuit industry has been adhering to three points of view, the results are not small, hard-won, and the road ahead is very long. One of the "Hard-won" experience is particularly profound. So this article for the 25 period of the industry achieved outstanding results, fully affirmed that no longer repeat. And from the further implementation of the Twelve-Five plan, put forward some immature views,     China's integrated circuit industry Eleven-Five planning Compliance     Review China's integrated circuit industry Eleven-Five Development plan, the main economic indicators are "by 2010, China's integrated circuit industry output reached 80 billion, to achieve sales revenue of about 300 billion yuan, an annual growth rate of 30%, accounting for the world's integrated circuit market share of 10%, to meet the domestic 30% market demand. "And from the Twelve-Five plan, the description of the integrated circuit industry has doubled." Output and sales revenue from 2005 to 26.58 billion and 70.2 billion yuan, increased to 2010 65.25 billion and 144 billion yuan, accounting for the global integrated circuit market share from 2005 4.5% to 2010 8.6%. The domestic market scale from 2005 to 380 billion yuan expanded to 2010 735 billion yuan, accounting for the global integrated circuit market share 43.8%.     objectively inductive IC industry Eleven-Five planning and achievement rate as shown in the following table, obviously the main indicators of industry has not been achieved. Analysis of the reasons is complex, mainly for the global semiconductor industry growth rate slowed, domestic also affected by the trend of the estimated shortage, and the other is to win. Obviously with the big environment in the country, in order to meet the high GDP growth, the industry's data preferences are related. Therefore, the lack of scientific, the lack of supervision mechanism, and then do not make a serious summary, such cases may have a certain universality, not only in the integrated circuit industry reflected. IC industry Eleven-Five planning reach Eleven-Five planning goalsTwelve-Five the data reached in the plan published in the IC output (billion) 652.5 81.56% IC sales (billion) 3000 1440 48% annual growth cagr% 30% 15% 50% about the global semiconductor industry% 10% 8.6% 86% Note: Data are from China IC industry Eleven-Five and Twelve-Five planning       planning lack of critical funding support     IC industry as "Swallow the Golden Beast". According to statistics of Global semiconductor annual investment and its sales ratio, from the previous nearly 20%, has fallen to this year's 15%, said the semiconductor industry investment in the amount of more than 45 billion U.S. dollars each year.                            Figure 1: Relationship between Semiconductor capital investment and sales       Reference industry experience data, for the advanced process of 12-inch production line, usually invest 100 million U.S. dollars, can produce 50 million U.S. dollars of sales, that is 2:1. Obviously according to different categories of industry, such as IDM and Foundry, in the United States and other regions, their input and output ratio is not the same, so 2:1 is only a valuation, need to be revised according to the actual situation. But there is no doubt that there is a need to increase investment in order to increase output.     China's integrated circuit industry Twelve-Five planning from 144 billion yuan, to the target value of 330 billion yuan, which increased the value of 186 billion yuan. If the input and output ratio is also accepted at 2:1, then China needs to be valued at 372 billion yuan for the corresponding investment, which is astronomical.     Once saw the development plan explained by the chairman of Jiang Shang Zhou, he estimated that the integrated circuit industry in Twelve-Five planning needs a variety of investments of up to 270 billion yuan.     Lenovo to SMIC before the Wang plan, his first step to achieve annual sales from the current 1.5 billion dollars to 3 billion dollars, and then SMIC in Twelve-Five of the ultimate goal to reach 5 billion U.S. dollars, the corresponding annual investment needs more than 1.5 billion dollars.     Therefore, the current solution to the source of funds is China's 12-inch production line urgent. Before the river on the boat has stated that SMIC should adopt the "introduction of strategic funds" to ensure that investors have 15% of the annual dividend. But the company's management's movement has caused the plan to run aground, so future funding jams will likely hinder the implementation of the Twelve-Five plan.     The future of China's integrated circuit industry may present a different picture of two, ais in the Government and other parties ' financial support, through the efforts of enterprises, may narrow the gap with the world level, in the global has a certain right to speak. Another is the gap between the advanced level continues to expand, there are integrated circuit enterprises, but not necessarily a world-class industry scale.     Rebuilding confidence is very urgent     at the beginning of the Twelve-Five planning, it is more urgent to restore confidence. China's integrated circuit industry has a certain particularity, now may be at a crossroads, how to go down the attention. But the immediate problem is a bit out of the question, and there is almost no response to the country's plans to increase investment. In fact, the core international in the early years of the establishment of the practice, should have exemplary role, at that time the SMIC has caused TSMC's great concern and in the global generation of industry has a certain impact. Unfortunately, the core international after a few moves are not sure, lost the opportunity, but also led the pioneer of Mr Chang to step down. But it can be summed up in two lessons, one is adherence to the non-nationalization system, the other is the need for pioneering leadership.     Now the industry's most worried that the leader of SMIC because of internal strife, has been a major injury. The new leadership is pragmatic, trying to change strategy, reduce investment, and reduce depreciation to strive for an early turnaround. This is a question of the inability to reconcile corporate interests with industrial interests, and perhaps the government may not yet be aware of its seriousness.     In addition, due to the recent period of domestic PV, poly-silicon, led and other aspects of the bright spots, the past is keen to promote the development of integrated circuit industry at all levels of local government to follow the trend is also very normal, at least let the industry feel that the shares before the development of integrated circuit industry     In such an industry conversion opportunity, on the one hand, China's integrated circuit industry to make progress as soon as possible, quickly change the image. At the same time from top to bottom need to cheer again, establish enough confidence. From the Vas-Saint-Neux Treaty, the West has been adhering to the development of China's integrated circuit industry, so we must improve the national security strategy to understand the integrated circuit industry, so "gas can only drum, not leak." "    conclusion     IC industry Twelve-Five development planning has been announced, considering its impact on the Electronics Industry Foundation and National security, as well as the urgency of the international situation, we should make concerted efforts to promote the smooth implementation of the plan and success. Generally speaking, goals, funds and talents are the three essential factors of success.     Although the gap between China's semiconductor industry and the international advanced level has an expanding trend, but the temporary backwardness is not terrible, the need is to continue to advance the confidence and scientific planning as well as down-to-earth step-by-step forward. It is impossible and undesirable to try to advance by leaps and bounds to make it clear that the development of the IC industry is closely linked to the country's industrial base.     At present, because China's semiconductor industry has not really entered the cycle of positive growth, especially the 12-inch high-end chip production line can not rely on cash flow to normal operation, so at this stage off the support of the state is unrealistic. However, in the future, China's semiconductor industry must take the non-nationalization system as the main, promote the healthy sustainable growth under the market economy.