Rising oil prices or CPI0.5 a percentage point may not worsen inflationary expectations

Every reporter Zhu Xiaowen wan Xia from Beijing the day before yesterday, the National Development and Reform Commission will be the gas, diesel supply price increase of 600 yuan/ton, is the first time this year, the domestic oil price adjustment of the highest level, the increase of nearly 9% and 10% respectively.　　Macro-economic scientists generally believe that the rise in oil prices have an impact on the PPI has a certain extent, the impact on the CPI is small.　　The transmission of the CPI or up to 0.5% bank chief economist Lianping said that the international market oil prices continued to rise, the domestic oil prices higher has a great impetus, no doubt also on PPI and CPI has pulled the role.　　Societe Generale, the chief economist, Lu County, the company predicted that the oil price adjustment will directly stimulate the July PPI increase of 0.2%, while the effect of oil prices in the industrial production of complete transmission, release, will be driven by the PPI compared with the comparison does not adjust when the increase of 0.6%. "This price adjustment on the direct impact of the CPI is small, CPI rose less than 0.1% per cent year-on-year."　　Lu Commissar said. Guotai chief analyst Li Thunderbolt also thinks that the oil price adjustment overall has certain influence to the price, but has limited to the PPI, "because our country petroleum prices share the PPI proportion is not very big, but further transmits to the CPI the intensity is not very much." "For the whole year, the total price adjustment this season can directly lead to a 0.5% increase in PPI this year," and the rise in oil prices in the industrial production of the full conduction, release, will be driven by the PPI compared with the comparison does not adjust when the increase of 1.2%. Lu Commissar said.　　He further predicted that the total price adjustment this year has a direct impact on the CPI of 0.1%, given the PPI effect on the CPI, the total impact on the CPI is likely to reach 0.5%. may not worsen the inflation expectation the country unifies the international market oil price change situation in recent time decides to raise the oil price, is beneficial to consummates the oil product prices formation mechanism.　　The National Development and Reform Commission issued in early May, "Oil price management Method (Trial)" announced that when the international market for 22 consecutive business days moving average price changes of more than 4%, the corresponding adjustment of domestic oil prices. Lu County, in addition, the increase in oil prices also conducive to long-term economic restructuring, and the transformation of the consumption structure. In the short term, it is unfavorable to the high oil consumption enterprise, but can promote the economic model change from high-energy consumption to Low-carbon development mode, and the emergence of alternative energy, "The price adjustment should be more market-oriented, make the enterprise of unsustainable exit automatically."　　Lu Commissar said.　　On the other hand, higher oil prices can dampen international commodity prices and therefore may not be as inflationary expectations as some market views will worsen. But the IEA report warns that if oil prices rise too fast, it could hurt the recovery. "The rapid rise in oil prices over the short term will make global macro-control uncertain." Lu Commissar said. But he expects the international oil price to be limited this year, reached 80 dollars per barrel is very high, so China again to increase oilPrice, not so much adjustment.　　The domestic oil price is still up to expectations "so big, so surprising," yesterday, a number of energy experts to the "daily economic news" that the timing of the oil prices and the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Oil price management Method (trial)" agreement, but the increase is surprising. Why is the country first to rise? Han Xiaoping, chief information officer of China Energy Network, it is worth rethinking whether the benchmark price of domestic oil is high. Han Xiaoping said that oil prices accounted for the bulk of the tax and operating costs, domestic oil prices and international standards, but the domestic "oil" has not been in line with international standards.　　Domestic oil is not high quality oil, half of the oil is domestic production of oil, there is a part of the share of oil, oil inconsistent circumstances, prices in accordance with the international market calculation, obviously unreasonable. On the other hand, in PetroChina Sinopec's letter to the NDRC to apply for refined oil prices at the same time, the current domestic terminal market demand is weak, Beijing, Shell, total and other gas stations are in the price promotion, this shows that in the current wholesale price of refined oil, there is still can adjust the zero profit margin. "Why not let the more competitive price of gas stations more fuel" became the question of energy experts.　　Han Xiaoping said that the profits of the oil companies increased further, indicating that the competition mechanism could not be perfected and that only when the foreign oil companies entered, they broke the monopoly and achieved a diversified competition pattern. However, the National Development and Reform Commission Energy Research Institute researcher Zhou told the Daily Economic news, the oil price is very normal, one months, the international oil price has risen by more than 20%. After the domestic oil price adjustment, the price increase is still less than 10%. If the international oil price rises by a large margin in the coming period, the domestic oil price will rise.　　Dong Xiucheng that the future international oil price breakthrough 80 U.S. dollars is in sight. Industry influence Petrochemical Double-male refining margin per barrel earn 6.12 dollars per bucket by reporter Shing Chunlai from Beijing This price adjustment, PetroChina Sinopec profit is significantly higher than the June 1 price adjustment.　　According to China Merchants Securities and petrochemical industry analyst Qiu Xiaofeng, according to the Chinese refinery diesel oil 60% yield calculation, price adjustment will increase refining margin 6.12 USD/barrel. "For PetroChina, if you do not take into account the increase in oil special income, only to consider the rise in revenue, the price adjustment of its performance per share increase of 0.165 yuan," Qiu Xiaofeng said, "and Sinopec does not consider the increase in crude oil costs, Performance per share of the annual increase of 0.48 yuan, only to consider the production of crude oil, the performance per share of the annual increase of 0.105 yuan.　　The bank's international analysts also believe that the price increase will make PetroChina and Sinopec each share of income increased by 0.21 yuan and 0.67 yuan respectively. The figures show that price hikes help boost the performance of both companies and have a positive impact on their share prices. However, Sinopec has benefited more than PetroChina.　　Qiu Xiaofeng said that after the price adjustment, Sinopec oil refining break-even point is expected in 62~63 USD/barrel, this crude oil prices refers to the actual procurement costs, rather than the international crude oil prices we observed. Single from performance elasticityLook, the price adjustment on PetroChina's stock prices have a big impact. But the price adjustment has determined the impact of the market on the mechanism, and the current economic situation into the honeymoon period of adjustment, and the previous adjustment so that the shares of Sinopec has a large discount. At present, Sinopec and PetroChina's share price gap reached 40%.　　Therefore, the positive impact of price adjustment on Sinopec will be even greater. As a result, Qiu Xiaofeng the two major companies this year and the next two years of performance, of which Sinopec this year and next two years of earnings per share of 0.67 yuan and 0.88 yuan, PetroChina for 0.64 Yuan and 0.88 yuan. "If the new mechanism works smoothly in the second half of the year, the situation will be better than expected."　　"Yesterday, the petrochemical double-hung shares rose 0.28%, the price of 14.48 Yuan, Sinopec Rose 0.66%, reported 10.66 Yuan." Synchronous broadcast aviation oil rose more than 25% 0 fuel cost era or the end of this price adjustment, domestic aviation oil ex-factory price per ton up 1030 yuan, up to 25.6%. January 4 This year, the NDRC, China Civil Aviation Administration decided to suspend the domestic routes of passenger transport fuel surcharges, the circular said, "whether in the future resumption of the receipt of domestic aviation kerosene price changes in the case of a separate study to determine." Wang Yili, director of the Easy Netcom market, said the performance of major Chinese airlines such as Air China, Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines in the first 2 quarters of the year was a loss. Today, airlines will be overwhelmed by soaring fuel prices.　Judging from this, recovery has been canceled six months of aviation fuel surcharge will be inevitable. Every reporter, Wan xia