RMB to innovate high effective exchange rate or stability

The renminbi has surged in the past two days against the dollar, hitting a new high since the exchange yesterday.　　Industry insiders said that January due to external pressure, the renminbi will appreciate at a faster rate. Despite a sharp decline in the trade surplus and a correction in the dollar index, the renminbi has suddenly surged against the dollar in the last two days, on the basis of a 133-point rally yesterday, when the renminbi surged 88 points against the dollar,　　Newspaper 6.6128, broke through the first day of the year set a high, and then the new record. Yesterday, the renminbi against the dollar spot market price slightly lower than the median, yesterday 3:30 P.M., the dollar buy price is 6.6092, lower than the middle price 36 basis points. At the same time, the forward offer remained stable, with a one-year dollar buy quote of 480 per cent yesterday, compared with 6.6092 of the spot purchase price, the equivalent of 6.5612, the market expects the renminbi to rise by 0.73% against the dollar in the coming year.　　Overseas market appreciation is slightly stronger, yesterday, the offshore market-free delivery markets one-year forward price of USD 6.4370, the appreciation is expected to be about 2.7%. Since the new year, as the dollar has remained strong against the euro, the yen has risen sharply, the renminbi against the dollar to rise in the yuan against these currencies are out of appreciation trend, yesterday, the renminbi against the euro 8.5851, compared with the end of last year, a sharp appreciation of 2.58%;　　However, the renminbi has fallen to a certain extent against sterling, Canadian dollar and rouble.　　Industry insiders said that due to the recent international pressure, the renminbi is expected to rise to a faster rate in January against the United States dollar, but in a shrinking trade surplus, the renminbi will not be too much appreciation in the year, the current market is generally estimated that the annual increase will be controlled between 4%~5%. Effective exchange rate to maintain stability Societe Generale, a senior economist, said the renminbi's median price rose 3% per cent against the dollar over the past six months, indicating that the renminbi is more resilient against the dollar, but the renminbi's effective exchange rate against many currencies has been super stable.　　The comprehensive renminbi exchange rate index, which includes 15 major trading partners, including the eurozone, the US, Japan and the Taiwan dollar, rose less than 0.1% in December 2010. The correlation between the nominal effective exchange rate index of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and the real effective exchange rate index is higher than that of export growth.　　This means that, in the case of unilateral weakness of the US dollar, even if the renminbi fluctuates violently against the US dollar, its impact on our economy remains limited as long as the effective exchange rate is generally stable. (Editor: Wang Lek Kang)