Robert has been renowned for his work on irrational exuberance.

Last year's Nobel laureate for Economics, Shiller, who has been renowned at home and abroad for his work on "irrational exuberance", called the "irrational, ego-driven, inflated bubble" of the triumphant stock market, and proposed a sober and rational correction. One months after the book was published, the Nasdaq index fell from 5000多 to 3,000, and Shiller became the most remarkable prophet of his time. The so-called irrational exuberance refers to the calm thoughts and worries behind the current prosperity.

Just in the brush micro Bo, see someone blew up in the third quarter of 2014, Millet smartphone shipments 18.4 million units, Millet became Samsung, Apple after the world's third largest mobile phone manufacturers. Only look at domestic sales, Millet also surpassed Samsung to become the first brand of domestic sales, have to sigh, the current, good faction of the scene of prosperity.

You know, millet in the first half has completed 26.11 million mobile phone sales, according to the pace of development, the completion of the year 60 million sets of the goal is a certainty of the fact. Under the shengjing, no one can allow others to add plugging, millet in sales data on the outbreak of the fact, but it is interesting that most of the public opinion will be that the success of Millet is a "irrational prosperity", now all the prosperity behind the scenes are hidden a huge bubble.

After returning to reason, we will find that millet once proud of the success point is a sword of Damocles, for example: the marketing of hunger, the success of helping millet shape the "one machine difficult" market demand brand image, but also let millet once caught in the channel under the line of the yellow cattle lying vortex; Millet success in the way of the Internet, staged a fan-driven business subversive exercise, but also let Millet feel fans because love life and hate the public opinion crisis.

So, in the situation of millet sales data soaring, should we be worried or happy? Millet can achieve the current success, is the strategic choice of the inevitable or a fluke on the tuyere?

Millet mobile phone market for more than 3 years, every strategic choice is cautious the most rational choice, now the success is not accidental, only so that it is irrational, all lies in the brand of millet, market position climbed to a certain level, was given more expectations and expectations, and in accordance with the current development of millet hidden crisis logic, It's hard to give the public a more stunning future.

is Millet's strategic choice rational?

Market cut on: Why choose the low-end market, cost-effective?

2010, Lei, Li Vanchang and other 7 founders with unfulfilled feelings, to kill into the smartphone market, trying to launch a rival to the iphone's national smartphone. That time just to catch up with the function machine switch to smartphone switching tide, once high smartphone finally flew into ordinary people's home, the smartphone market was awakened, hundreds of millions of market has spawned Apple, Samsung, Motorola and a large number of excellent mobile phone manufacturers. With the accelerated penetration of Apple and Samsung in the middle-and high-end markets, smartphones quickly became the bellwether for the trend, with a large number of urban white-collar elites becoming the first smartphone experience.

This time the millet kill come in, impossible and Apple head-on PK, can only choose in the low-end market into, if caught, it will be placed in front of a huge tuyere. Lei is keenly aware that the next two or three years smartphone manufacturers really fight the market share, especially in the domestic, who mastered the low-end market, who will dominate the right to speak. Lei very clear high-end mobile phone market is able to see the ceiling, only the low-end mobile phone market potential is endless. So what's interesting is that Millet is clearly positioned for a fever, from the slogan is very rich in the spirit, since it is geek natural means small, but millet know the end of the market is not in fact the future, so the Sword walk slant, the market positioning in the low-end market. Can you say that Lei is a literary youth with empty feelings?

From the low end of the market into a natural escape from the chaos of straggly competition, millet very clearly will be with the Chinese Cool alliance to start a protracted tug of war, and to ensure that millet leading the winning side of the core competitiveness is bound to be cost-effective. For this millet launched a 1999-yuan high configuration mobile phone, can and the market around 3000 yuan mobile phone competition leading coquettish. Coupled with the unique Internet sales model, let Millet become the only one dare to skip the intermediary to sell the cost price of smartphones.

The millet hardware does not make money, relies on the software and the service to make money the internet thinking also becomes the brand endorsement standard, this lets Huawei, ZTE these slightly traditional gene's friend is really enough to collapse. But, millet is stable to establish a high cost-performance brand image, this is not suitable for the silk-grade market, do not know to choose a high cost-efficient purchase psychology Mody? Millet market predatory advance of the killer is its high price tag mold. As to whether it is really cost-effective, for the time being not to investigate, it is certain that millet at that time such a price, so configured the mobile phone does play a subversive innovation to undermine the role of the industry rules, a short period enough friends to drink a pot.

Product iterations: From the hardware run to the brand process of the cock silk reverse attack

If you look carefully at the strategy of the upgrade of Millet mobile phone, it is also very artistic. From the Millet 1 generation to 4 generations, and then to the Red Rice series complement, and then to the flat, TV, routers, mobile power, hand ring and other products spread out, the layout is very methodical.

Millet 1 is a well-known mobile phone, millet, this time, the market did not precipitate, dangerous. Millet flagship for a fever, highlighting the hardware does not make money, to price for quantity, to the consumer strong hit a needle manufacturers loss of the impression of a big sale, coupled with the early days of the Millet fans of the help, the slightest has not been shanzhai, but let millet overnight become comparable to Apple's God machine, so that millet brand awareness and reputation to uplift a level.

To the Millet 2 series, millet know chanting slogan is definitely not, must be on the hardware on the real skills, then strengthen the running points of the propaganda, known as the whole universe run the fastest cell phone, by no brain run ranked, millet in the mobile phone hardware on the absolute leading position is very vividly highlighted out, it really works, Compared to 7.9 million units of millet sales, Millet 2 series has created 17.4 million good results.

To Millet 3, millet is very calm aware of the millet in the positioning of the crisis, therefore, to enrich the product line to try to diversify the name of the first launch of the red-meter mobile phone, one can be the low end of the cell phone's qualitative lock on the red rice body, so that the millet mobile phone to carry 2000 yuan in the middle of the platform model; Millet mobile phone series really need to think about the change, the core advantages on the hardware and other friends of the more and more small, millet also began to change the strategy began to Chong their own eco-chain plan, has introduced millet TV, millet router, millet tablets and other products, the smart home field, weakening the propaganda of the hardware, Focus on the mobile phone's life-changing imagination. In fact, the sales of Millet 3 indeed a substantial decline, red Rice became a well-deserved salvation.

Finally to Millet 4, the strategy of millet completely changed, the main piece of the Art of steel plate travel, nano-grade fingerprint film, 32-hour processing, highlighting the process design ink. Millet very clear, now spell hardware will only embattled, must go a differentiated route, just can borrow millet brand on the precipitation, in the process design to uplift their brand tone, complete gorgeous Li silk reverse attack.

Marketing Promotion: From hunger Marketing to independent electric business ecology

The reason why call Hunger Marketing, is the original pursuit of millet vermicelli consumption returned to the rational, the moral repression. Bringing up the marketing of hunger always makes a monkey feel sick. In fact, the marketing of Millet is essentially a prepaid electric business model, which is a conservative strategy to reduce the risk of capital injection, and take a reservation and then order production and sales.

As a lightweight business, in the early days of mobile phones, in order to reduce the risk, millet to take the way to purchase is understandable. Millet to take a different time period, 5.5 million units, specific to a certain point in time to gather customers together for a unified time snapped up, the advantage is can be in a short period of time to create attention, and create a sense of hunger, grab people with joy, rob people in micro Bo, micro-letter on a complaint, spit groove, resulting in a very sought-after Millet brand awareness.

Of course, millet can not let their own hardcore fans disappointed, invented the F code, so that the millet community has contributed to a group of fans, the priority to buy mobile phone privileges. This special sense of participation, help millet successfully put the customer fan group Circle in the Millet community, for its independent electric quotient of the ecological structure created a customer base.

From the purchase of electricity to hunger marketing, in fact, a step away, when the Millet brand awareness of the continuous fermentation, short selling situation of long-term existence, hunger marketing will be generated. This is a kind of criticism and criticism of the marketing approach, the pure capacity of the explanation, will only let the waiting fans think Millet is a fan of the IQ, play monkey. Hunger Marketing will make a group of people eager to buy millet mobile phone's emotional impact, but also let Millet fell into the doubt of futures. In order to avoid the negative impact of hunger marketing damage to the brand, now Millet is desperately need to go to hunger marketing, and strive to achieve full open purchase. Now the millet has a stable customer base, with a stable supply chain and generation of factories, and then hunger marketing is tantamount to a self-inflicted trap. Millet can take advantage of the current form of the fan customer base, using to stabilize the online channel demand, to practice their own independent electric business ecology.

What is the irrational prosperity of millet?

Top from the market positioning, products, marketing all-round display of millet in the strategic choice of the development path, not ugly out, millet can achieve the current domestic sales of the first achievement is not accidental, nor as the public opinion of the irrational prosperity. So why the remarkable millet will become the target?

Lei has said that the secret of the success of Millet is focus, the ultimate, Word-of-mouth, fast, two lang think for another angle, millet is not optimistic about the reason is precisely this. Now the growth rate of the smartphone market has stabilized, the wind stopped, the pig has not survived the possibility of the whole of those imaginary head eight brain things have not worked, to the critical moment of internal force.

"Focus"-focus on the delivery volume, Millet's way out?

Because of the choice of the low-end market, Millet is destined to embark on a only to fight shipments can survive the road, fine tillage low-end, to price change quantity, such millet is actually lack of core competitiveness, the only cost-effective core advantage must also be in the volume of shipments can exist. Blindly spell shipments will only make the path of millet more and more narrow, more and more difficult to go. Why do you say that?

Because the nature of shipments is driven by the channel, Millet Walk is a standard online channel, seems to handle the future, in fact, due to the low-end market customer group Network awareness of the restrictions, millet is not a line to fight more than a chip of Huawei, Lenovo. For Lenovo, from the brand's point of view, we can hardly feel the eye-catching, but Lenovo has a stroll around the world, with this advantage will not be too far away.

Moreover, the amount of millet needs in the quality control to maintain rigorous, once again appear to restart the door such a qualitative crisis, to the brand can be expected to blow, is the low-end mobile phone, there are a variety of quality problems, so that people how to worry. If Millet has been born for shipments, the consequences can be imagined, no matter how eye-catching your brand, brand premium also difficult to lift up, the future of the high-end mobile phone market to advance it, the prospect of worrying!

"Extreme"-the ultimate in doing the Internet, Millet's internal force is strong?

Lei often said that Millet is superior to other manufacturers of the point is to use the Internet way to do mobile phones, with flat light volume against the traditional organizational structure, with the ultimate cost-effective confrontation with the traditional manufacturers of layers of channels, with Software + services to manage the way the fans, against the traditional manufacturers have barriers to communication. Lei said the advantages of the right, but in fact still stay in the pattern juggling, not to construct millet solid internal force of the Great Wall.

Millet is a good helm, but shipbuilding, Yangfan's strength is also indispensable. Chip on the Qualcomm, with MTK, on behalf of the factory with Nvidia, with Foxconn, with strong shipments of the market support, these are first-class partners, once the market recession? Do not have their own core research and development capabilities, Tusigoupeng, China, Landing is a piece of paper agreement.

If it is not enough to explain the problem, please note that millet in the footsteps of overseas, to Singapore, Taiwan, India and other markets such as Europe and the United States are not in fact the path of globalization, in the patent and technical constraints, will make the millet struggling. Or MIUI, even if the user volume is large, in essence, based on Android depth customization, who can guarantee that Google is not happy that day? Millet must be hard, because the future mobile phone market is internationalized, only in the domestic market hegemony, how to enjoy the millet hardware + software + services of the Internet ecological vision.

"Word of mouth"-from the legendary, to have a mouth all sad

Now said that Millet has become a national pride of the national sex cell phone is very occasional, if someone wants to black, it must be questioned not praise is not Chinese. Millet can top the great pressure from the Chinese cool joint, in the mobile phone end of the market to kill a road is obvious to all, millet can use the internet thinking for the traditional industry from the enterprise to shape a spiritual leader is worthy of respect. Even regardless of its social value, millet play the fan economic ecology, can also be regarded as the industry model. But Millet's fan ecology is not stable.

One: The fan structure is too good silk level, Millet has a big fans are directed at the low cost of millet, such fans of millet fans of the economy contribution will not be too big, once lost the price advantage, Millet fans will race to run, there is no loyalty.

Two: Millet only has the shell of fever, lack of the soul of the enthusiast, millet to really want to do fans fan, should be in addition to hardware parameters, and then do some high-end customization such as narrow borders, ultra-thin, HiFi sound quality, and so on, alone on the MIUI software on the improvement of the fever level, after all, is always to be popular, A fever how to say also dip a small public privilege nature, this point millet obviously did not enough. Elite fans can not stabilize, low-end fans can't afford, today's reputation, tomorrow is likely to have a mouth all sad, such millet vermicelli economic ecology, do you think it is commendable?

"Quick"-after the tuyere faded, how does millet stand up?

3-year time 10 billion U.S. dollars in market capitalisation, the current reputation of millet status, all let people applauded. But the word "fast" in the current social rhythm of the fast market rhythm is a can be derogatory words, driven in the Tuyere, one night, can only be regarded as a tyrants, when you trench, we will observe your conduct, explore your precipitation.

Millet 3 years of technology, patents, cultural precipitation can be called the first major mobile phone brand title Mody? If there is a disadvantage in the domestic and the Chinese cool Union, how dare threaten to enter the international market. So, millet for quick to earn pots full, also want to slow down at the same time, the whole market is back to rational, the competition also regained rationality, you again so manic go on, will have good end? So the challenge of millet is to slow down, so that the brand in the slow pace to establish the core competitiveness, so that products in the slow pace of the opening of the stunning flower fruit, so that the ecosystem in the slow pace of formation of unbreakable industry.

One might ask, what is the purpose of your long speech, black millet? Precisely wrong, MIT ariely in the "Grotesque behavior of 2: Irrational positive force", in the humorous language of the positive meaning of irrational to do a detailed elaboration. If the growth of millet in the process of the existence of such as hunger marketing, fans of the economy, screaming, such as a variety of irrational facts as a driving force for the growth of millet, but also completely can be said. No matter how much controversy, Millet survived, but also to achieve market-leading, the past is not too good or bad meaning is not too big, it is worth our concern is that, when all the irrational factors, millet to go to the road has just begun.