Robot industry Outlook: The next 10 years to usher in the peak of machine substitution

Absrtact: 21st Century Macro Research institute analyst Shang in the capital market and the promotion of local government support policy, the domestic robot industry has been heating up, regions, enterprises scramble to launch the robot project. Prior to that, 21st century macro-research Institute of "localized yuan 21st Century Macro Research Institute analyst Shang





in the capital market and the promotion of local government support policies, the domestic robot industry has been heating up, regions, enterprises scramble to launch the robot project. Prior to that, the 21st Century Macro-research Institute of "Domestic first year: Robotics Industry era" a article (see this newspaper September 16, 2014 8), the robot industry has given a high degree of concern.





2014 before the Shanghai and Shenzhen Two cities and robot business close to the listed companies only about 35, and this year, a number of listed companies through the capital operation into the robot industry, with the flower shun data show that the current two cities of the concept of robot stocks up to 63, nearly doubled. In addition, there are unlisted related robotics companies, such as Nanjing Eston, Guangzhou CNC and so on.





robot industry is generally bullish, enterprises flocked, industrial park is also everywhere. There are more than 30 robotic industrial parks located in the national high-tech zone, and 36 cities have the robot industry as the local key development target.





in our view, the next 10 years or so the rapid growth of machine substitution, and the next thing to think about is whether the domestic robot industry will repeat the fate of the photovoltaic industry. The 21st Century Macro-research institute from China's robot market demand, domestic production capacity, macro-economic cycle and other dimensions to explore whether the robot industry has overestimated the market demand for excess worries.





market demand determines industry capacity





policy support and capital support can improve the prospect of the industry to some extent, but in this role, it is the market demand that ultimately pulls the development of the industry. From the development trajectory of domestic robot, the shortage of demand is the key to the development of robot industry.





in the 80 's, the technology department of Industrial Robots included in the science and technology projects, industrial robots ushered in the first upsurge of development, but then because of weak market demand, robot independent research and development and industrialization experienced a long-term stagnation.





How big is the current market demand and how much capacity can be provided to the enterprise? 21st Century Macroscopic research Institute from the robot can replace the labor space, the application demand engine and other factors to analyze this problem.





Human-machine game space. Although "machine substitution" is the general trend, but in addition to the need to consider cost factors, but also with the actual conditions. 21st Century Macro Research institute judged that the next 10 years or machine substitution of the rapid growth period: the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry urgently urgent to achieve industrial automation; In addition, about 10 years later, the 15-34-year-old young workforce is reduced, The population born during the peak stage of childbirth (1962-1970) will also be concentrated in withdrawing from the labour market.





from the age structure of China's population, 2012 began to appear the labor supply inflection point-the 15-59-year-old working-age population of 937.27 million people, a 3.45 million reduction from the previous year, the 2013 trend continued, the same year, the Chinese market robot sales increased significantly 59%.





while the labor force is declining, the labor supply of different age has obvious differentiation trend, there is statistical forecast 10 or a critical point. Among them, the 15-34-year-old Young labor force is the main part of the decline of our working age population, its size will be in the next more than 10 years from the current 420 million down to 2026 years of 320 million.




If the population was born in 1962-1970 at the age of 63-55 years, the average age of 59 years (the Chinese working-age population of 15-59 years) would be 10 years later, and, therefore, the
of the labour force would occur after 10 years.





Accordingly, the next 10 years or so, is the end of China's demographic dividend to give the robot Industry development window period.





21st century, the macro-research institute estimated that the total number of manual workers in the next 10 to reduce the age of 100 million people, according to the 2013 manufacturing population accounted for 5.35% of the working-age population (the number of Chinese manufacturing workers in 2013, 50 million people, working age population of 935 million), The manufacturing workforce will be reduced by at least 5.35 million.





While industrial robots can be substituted for the number of workers accounted for about 60% of the manufacturing sector, considering 1 robots efficiency equals 3 workers, so the substitution of machine replacement space of about 1.07 million units (100 million x5.35%=535 million, 5.35 million x60%÷3=107 million).





In accordance with the average price per 300,000 yuan estimate, the robot market and related industries 13 of the proportion to calculate, the next 10 years the robot industry cluster market size of about 1.284 trillion yuan, the average annual market size of 128.4 billion yuan.





However, only from the estimated output value of local industrial parks, only in the next few years, the annual output of 36 urban robots in China will be close to 600 billion yuan, and the annual output of robotic industrial clusters will reach 3 trillion yuan.





from the application of industrial robots, the automotive industry is the main digestive tract. The data from Morgan Stanley show that Chinese robots are still in the early stages of application and are particularly dependent on the auto industry. Since 2007-2011, nearly half of China's industrial robots have contributed to the automotive industry, which accounts for 59% of China's robot demand and 17% of the electronics industry.





but in the Chinese automobile market, the share of foreign capital occupies an absolute advantage. China Auto Industry Association data show that the first half of this year, the independent brand apparent weakness, market share continues to decline.





Thus, even the main application areas of industrial robot sales are driven by external forces.





quality and key parts restrict domestic competitiveness





2013, China surpassed Japan for the first time to become the world's largest robot market, it is because of the huge potential of China's market development, in the domestic enterprises into the robot industry, Japan and Europe and the United States companies will focus on China. Grii statistics show that in 2013, there were more than 25 foreign robot companies selling in the Chinese market, which undoubtedly increased the competitiveness of the robot market.





from the industrial chain, the entire robot industry chain is divided into the upstream key components, midstream equipment manufacturers and downstream industry application of three large chunks, the current domestic enterprises are: mainly concentrated for downstream system integrators, and the upstream industry chain without core parts manufacturers support, key components are still far behind the foreign companies, So long controlled. Because of this, in the local production of industrial robot raw material cost composition, the reducer occupies 40%, servo motor occupies 30%, the controller occupies 15%, others occupy 15%, most of the profits are mastered by the core technology of foreign-funded enterprises to take.





From the technical force, China's annual application of robotics-related patents, publishing robotics related academic papers ranked first in the world, but the core technology research has lagged behind. In the case of RV reducer, the Chinese applicant has only 26 patents and only 13 patents, and only 2 patents are available, while foreign applicants have applied for 47 patents in China, of which 26 are all patent inventions.





is precisely because the key components are not autonomous, domestic brand profits are squeezed, more competition will only bring price war, especially in the middle and small enterprises, at present, the domestic capital, foreign-funded enterprises, the gap between the market competitiveness is far.





the development cycle of manufacturing industry affects robot environment





macro, now China's economic growth slowed to 7%-7.5% of the band, industry is also facing downward pressure, and the robot industry development and China's economic growth has a strong correlation, and the manufacturing cycle is more obvious synchronization. China's manufacturing growth reached a high of 51.8% per cent in 2004, while the 2011-year data now available has fallen to 15.6%, in line with China's market for robotic sales. Therefore, China's economic downturn will inevitably affect the future of the robot industry.





microcosmic, the cost advantage that has supported the rise of China's manufacturing industry is gradually lost, in recent years the cost growth of manufacturing main business is almost 20% growth. Affected by this, on the one hand, the manufacturing industry in developed countries is returning to the trend, with the industrial robotics industry, 3D printing and other technologies continue to develop, the technology advantage of the country's manufacturing costs are falling, BCG has predicted that by 2015, the U.S. manufacturing costs than the Yangtze River delta region only about 5%. On the other hand, China's manufacturing industry is also facing the potential of the following, BCG said China's manufacturing costs are already higher than other export countries, the current labor costs in Vietnam is about half of China. Thus, the cost advantage of manufacturing in China may be further compressed, and industrial robots that are widely used in manufacturing will be "implicated".