Robot industry Outlook: The next 10 years to usher in the peak of machine substitution

In the capital market and the promotion of local government support policy, the domestic robot industry has been heating up, regions, enterprises scramble to launch the robot project. Prior to that, the 21st Century Macro-research Institute of "Domestic first year: Robotics Industry era" a article (see this newspaper September 16, 2014 8), the robot industry has given a high degree of concern.

2014 before the Shanghai and Shenzhen Cities and the robot business of the listed companies are only about 35, and this year, a number of listed companies through the capital operation into the robot industry, with the flower shun data show that the current two cities of the concept of robot stocks up to 63, nearly doubled. In addition, there are unlisted related robotics companies, such as Nanjing Eston, Guangzhou CNC and so on.

Robot industry is generally bullish, enterprises flocked, industrial park is also everywhere. There are more than 30 robotic industrial parks located in the national high-tech zone, and 36 cities have the robot industry as the local key development target.

In our view, the next 10 years or so the rapid growth of machine substitution, and the next thing to think about is whether the domestic robot industry will repeat the fate of the photovoltaic industry. The 21st Century Macro-research institute from China's robot market demand, domestic production capacity, macro-economic cycle and other dimensions to explore whether the robot industry has overestimated the market demand for excess worries.

Market demand determines industry capacity

Policy support and capital support can improve the prospects of the industry to some extent, but in this role, it is the market demand that ultimately drives the development of the industry. From the development trajectory of domestic robot, the shortage of demand is the key to the development of robot industry.

In the 80 's, the technology department of Industrial Robots included in the science and technology projects, industrial robots ushered in the first upsurge of development, but then because of weak market demand, robot independent research and development and industrialization experienced a long-term stagnation.

How big is the current market demand and how much capacity can be provided to the enterprise? 21st Century Macroscopic research Institute from the robot can replace the labor space, the application demand engine and other factors to analyze this problem.

Human-machine game space. Although "machine substitution" is the general trend, but in addition to the need to consider cost factors, but also with the actual conditions. 21st Century Macro Research institute judged that the next 10 years or machine substitution of the rapid growth period: the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry urgently urgent to achieve industrial automation; In addition, about 10 years later, the 15-34-year-old young workforce is reduced, The population born during the peak stage of childbirth (1962-1970) will also be concentrated in withdrawing from the labour market.

From the age structure of China's population, 2012 began to appear the labor supply inflection point-the 15-59-year-old working-age population of 937.27 million people, a decrease of 3.45 million people, 2013 this trend continued, the same year the Chinese market robot sales increased significantly 59%.

At the same time, the labor force population declines, the labor supply of different age has obvious differentiation trend, there is statistical forecast 10 or a critical point. Among them, the 15-34-year-old Young labor force is the main part of the decline of our working age population, its size will be in the next more than 10 years from the current 420 million down to 2026 years of 320 million.

If the 10-year-old 2025 node, when the population born in 1962-1970, the age range at 63-55 years of age, the average age is just 59 years old (China's working-age population of 15-59 years), thus, the concentration of labor withdrawal time or in 10 years after the emergence.

According to this, the next 10 years or so, is the end of China's demographic dividend to give the robot Industry development window period.

The 21st Century Macro-research institute estimated that the total number of manual workers in the next 10 to reduce the age of 100 million people, according to the 2013 manufacturing population accounted for 5.35% of the working age population (in 2013, the number of manufacturing workers in China, 50 million people, the working age of the population of 935 million), The manufacturing workforce will be reduced by at least 5.35 million.

Industrial robots can be substituted for the number of workers accounted for about 60% of the manufacturing sector, considering the efficiency of 1 robots equals 3 workers, so the substitution of machine replacement space of about 1.07 million units (100 million x5.35%=535 million, 5.35 million x60%÷3=107 million).

In accordance with the average price per 300,000 yuan estimate, the robot market and related industries 13 of the proportion to calculate, the next 10 years the robot industry cluster market size of about 1.284 trillion yuan, the average annual market size of 128.4 billion yuan.

However, only from the estimated output value of the local industrial park, only in the next few years, the country's 36 urban robots estimated annual output will be close to 600 billion yuan, and the robotic industry cluster of the annual output will reach 3 trillion yuan.

According to the application of industrial robots, the automobile industry is the main digestive tract. The data from Morgan Stanley show that Chinese robots are still in the early stages of application and are particularly dependent on the auto industry. Since 2007-2011, nearly half of China's industrial robots have contributed to the automotive industry, which accounts for 59% of China's robot demand and 17% of the electronics industry.

But in China's auto market, the share of foreign capital is an absolute advantage. China Auto Industry Association data show that the first half of this year, the independent brand apparent weakness, market share continues to decline.

Thus, even the main applications of industrial robot sales are driven by external forces.

Quality and key components restrict domestic competitiveness

In 2013, China overtook Japan for the first time as the world's largest robot market, precisely because of the great potential of China's market development, in the domestic enterprises into the robot industry, Japan and Europe and the United States and companies will focus on China. Grii statistics show that in 2013, there were more than 25 foreign robot companies selling in the Chinese market, which undoubtedly increased the competitiveness of the robot market.

From the industrial chain, the whole robot industry chain is divided into the upstream key components, midstream equipment manufacturers and downstream industry application of three blocks, the current domestic enterprises are: mainly concentrated in the downstream system integrators, and the upstream industry chain without the core parts manufacturers support, key components are still far behind the foreign enterprises, So long controlled. Because of this, in the local production of industrial robot raw material cost composition, the reducer occupies 40%, servo motor occupies 30%, the controller occupies 15%, others occupy 15%, most of the profits are mastered by the core technology of foreign-funded enterprises to take.

From the technical force, China's annual application of robotics-related patents, publishing robotics related academic papers ranked first in the world, but the core technology research has lagged behind. In the case of RV reducer, the Chinese applicant has only 26 patents and only 13 patents, and only 2 patents are available, while foreign applicants have applied for 47 patents in China, of which 26 are all patent inventions.

It is because the key components are not autonomous, domestic brand profits are squeezed, more competition will only bring price war, especially in the middle and small enterprises in the rush, at present, the domestic capital, foreign-owned enterprises production capacity, market competitiveness gap is far.

Manufacturing development cycle affects robot environment

In macro terms, China's economic growth is slowing to around 7%-7.5% of the band, industry is also facing downward pressure, and the development of robotics industry and China's economic growth has a strong correlation, and manufacturing development cycle is more obvious synchronization. China's manufacturing growth reached a high of 51.8% per cent in 2004, while the 2011-year data now available has fallen to 15.6%, in line with China's market for robotic sales. Therefore, China's economic downturn will inevitably affect the future of the robot industry.

Microcosmic, the cost advantage that has supported the rise of China's manufacturing industry is gradually lost, in recent years the cost growth of manufacturing main business is almost 20% growth. Affected by this, on the one hand, the manufacturing industry in developed countries is returning to the trend, with the industrial robotics industry, 3D printing and other technologies continue to develop, the technology advantage of the country's manufacturing costs are falling, BCG has predicted that by 2015, the U.S. manufacturing costs than the Yangtze River delta region only about 5%. On the other hand, China's manufacturing industry is also facing the potential of the following, BCG said China's manufacturing costs are already higher than other export countries, the current labor costs in Vietnam is about half of China. Thus, the cost advantage of manufacturing in China may be further compressed, and industrial robots that are widely used in manufacturing will be "implicated".

(Responsible editor: Mengyishan)