Securities research institutions: Optimists look 3500 cautious faction keyed 2600

Trainee reporter Huang Chilong as of yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index has held four consecutive trading days on top of 2,700 points, reaching the upper limit expected by many large brokerage institutions last year.　　Where the fundamentals have not yet seen a clear signal of recovery, where is the second half of the stock market? Yesterday, the securities Times reporter interviewed several securities research institutions on this issue.　　Optimists expect the market to explore 3,500 points in the second half of this year, while the cautious faction believes that the fundamentals have been overdrawn, the large market drop inevitable. Optimists: The market is expected to rush to 3,500 points most of the institutions interviewed that the stock market has continued to rise, the forecast of the market point is also concentrated between 2800 and 3,500 points.　　Among them, Dr Mu Qi, of the Joint Securities Research Institute, argues that a better fundamentals, ample liquidity and a large scale of investment have curbed corporate earnings and will push the stock market slowly upwards to 3,500 points. Shang, analyst at the Wanguo Institute, said the Shanghai Composite Index was expected to hit 2,800 points, with a core fluctuation range of 2500-2800 points and a possible breakthrough in the short term, after a premium push and peripheral market stimulus. In addition, the short-term impact of IPO restart will not change the internal operating rules of a-share market. June restrictions on the lifting of restricted stocks and reduce the pressure is relatively small.　　and the allocation of resources industry is a large market value plate, to some extent blocked the short-term downward adjustment of the market space. CITIC Securities Strategy Research group leader Yu June said that the fundamental success of the recovery may still be relatively large, volatile upward pattern is expected to remain unchanged. Yu June that, because the financial and resource stocks obviously strong, indicating that the market style is changing, big stocks have strong signs, the low valuation of large stocks is the internal cause of the decision later round. Maintenance Cycle + Financial main Line, plate fluctuation operation is the focus.　　At present, the peripheral market funds are speeding into the stock and commodity markets, conduction to a a-share route, one is the U.S. stock index trend incentive A-share investment confidence; The second is the global capital flows into Hong Kong to promote H-shares rise, promote a A-share market valuation space; third, the external commodity prices　　Yu June agrees that there will be no large-scale inflation, and he believes that the market is still relatively modest, and signs of domestic money entering a-share and property markets suggest that ample liquidity has changed inflationary expectations. Cautious faction: High down the inevitable National Gold Securities Institute strategy analyst Chen Dong that the current market point has overdrawn the fundamentals.　　The market is expected to be in a volatile period of two or three quarters, the point may fall back to 2,600 points, the four-quarter need to look at the peripheral market, the global environment changes. Chen Dong pointed out that there is structural inflation in the market, but the CPI is not very high, upstream raw materials, energy prices rise, downstream prices are difficult to rise, more reflects the economy in excess of capacity of digestion. Downstream manufactures market is not flourishing, purchasing power is slowing, upstream raw material energy price rises, enterprise profit contraction repression, purchasing power is also affected.　　In general, the upstream and downstream industries are deviating, internal development is uneven, the industrial chain is squeezed, suppressing productivity. Ping An Securities analyst Li Xianming AlsoSaid it was not optimistic. He predicted that the market will be a bit from the current high volatility downward. The fundamentals, he argues, are not yet fully restored and the attractiveness of valuations is not too great.　　The contraction of future liquidity will greatly affect the economic operation. Inflation is the main focus of the second half of Li Xianming.　　He argues that prices are rising, but as demand picks up, it could offset some of the rise in inflation, so inflation is generally not too big in the second half. The name of the brokerage 2008 forecast this year, the recent forecast for the second half of this year, Hongyuan securities a A-share fluctuation range of 1500 to 2,900 points overall rise, pay attention to the valuation advantages and performance of a clear weight of the stock, a share of the stock shares of the fluctuation interval 1600 to 2,500 points a Fluctuation interval 1900 to 2,400 points liquidity and profit double pressure; peripheral stock market strength influence short-term trend China Merchants securities A-share fluctuation interval 1600 to 2,300 points overall rise, concern inflation income plate, suggest maintain high position guotai A-share fluctuation range 1800 to 2,800 points A-share after 3,200 points of inertia growth of the national Gold securities A-shares fluctuation interval of 1400 to 2,700 point A shares back to 2,700 or even the following national Sea securities A-share fluctuation range 1600 to 2,700 high volatility, rising power shortage, valuation level facing upward pressure Southwest securities A-shares fluctuation range 1400 to 4,000 points A-share fluctuation range from 2700 to 3,000 Citic investment a-share fluctuation interval 1200 to 2,700 breakthrough 2,800 points, the weight of the main Wanguo A-share fluctuation range 1600 to 2,600 points a-share fluctuation interval 2500 to 2,800 point National letter Securities A-share value center in 2000 there is still room for rise, High market structure valuation and IPO composition pressure Bohai Securities A-shares fluctuation range 2000 to 2,800 point of shock has come to an end, is expected to increase innovation high, blue chip market arrival of the Galaxy securities A-share wave range 2500 to 3,000 risk accumulation, the fundamentals are not enough to support the rise, short-term blue-chip ping Between 1500 to 2,800 points of the fundamentals have been overdrawn, high valuations, the high volatility of the stock a-share volatility range 1584 to 3,132 breakthrough 2,800 points, blue chips further rise, rebound space large Pacific securities A-share volatility range 1800 to 2,500 points around 2,600-point oscillation is poised to rise, Faced with structural adjustment pressure Securities trust valuation rebound; profit-seeking bottom; deflation recurrence; Asset allocation, rising space big external demand turn good, break through 2,800 points, pay attention to finance, real estate and blue-chip Haitong securities market net rate still has the drop space; the lifting pressure is unprecedented, the concern trade opportunity faces the concussion pressure, exists the structural bubble, The bear market is nearing its end. Citic Securities Oscillation Rally is the main baseTune, the second half ushered in a long-term opportunity to take positions in the periphery market and capital to lead a a-share upward trend, shock upstream of the Yangtze River Securities in the first quarter may appear in the low rebound market shocks breakthrough 2,800, short-term fluctuations in 2,700, low valuation category of stocks CICC not excluding A shares next year there are 20% But 2010 will tend to stabilize blue-chip led, financial real estate attention, structural adjustment is a challenge to the industrial securities a A-share will be repeated shocks, the Shanghai Composite Index 3,000 points or even higher than can not expect to break through 3,000 points, follow-up risk should be reduced