Shipping industry: What does it mean to accelerate the BDI index?

1. Events from April 8, 2009 BDI Two adjustments to 1463 points, the BDI index again started to rise, after May, the BDI index began to accelerate the rise, May 13 has been more than February to create a new high of 2,298 this year, as of May 22, 2009 BDI index reached 2,786 points, Continue to present an accelerated upward trend.　　The BDI index mainly records the changes in the transport prices of global dry bulk shipments, and does the acceleration of the BDI index mean that the global economy is on the road to recovery? 2.　　Our analysis and judgment we believe that analysis of the BDI rise, should be analyzed below a few situations. First, in October 2008, the international economic crisis and a sudden slowdown in the Chinese economy, affected by this, the BDI index fell to 663 points on December 5, 2008, more than the 1998 Asian economic level of 679, the global shipping companies almost all into a huge loss of operating state, This is a very abnormal situation.　　Therefore, from 2009 onwards, the gradual recovery of the BDI index is an inevitable normal long-term trend. Second, the Chinese government took the lead in the world launched the "4 trillion yuan economic revitalization plan", so that 2009 1-April China's fixed assets investment continued to maintain a high growth trend of more than 25%, 2009 1-April, China's pig iron and crude steel production reached 164.01 million tons and 170.86 million tons respectively, Year-on-year growth of 2.95% and 0.64%, more than 2008 years of the first half of the Chinese economy, the best period of steel production, indicating that the Chinese economy has begun to enter a new era of full recovery, with the support of steel industry, China's imports of iron ore has been the highest record of three consecutive months to refresh, April 2009 imported iron ore unexpectedly reached an astonishing 57 million tons, an increase of 33%, while the import of non-ferrous metal ores also increased significantly. China has become a new growth hotspot in the global economy, with China's encouragement, the economic downturn in Europe, the United States and Japan is beginning to slow down, and the sharp decline in commodity imports has begun to slow down sharply and imports are slowly recovering.　　These are supporting the gradual recovery of demand in the global maritime transport industry. Third, global oil has been rising for three consecutive months, from 33 U.S. dollars/barrels to 62 U.S. dollars/barrels, leading to a resurgence of international demand for coal, the 2008 as a result of the surge in international coal demand for the emergence of a big increase in the situation again. In the end, the international demand for marine coal transport increased again, oil-coal-ocean transport and steel-iron ore-ocean transport two cycles of the rising trend again began to form, is expected to be difficult to change the medium and long-term upward trend, so as to support the gradual escape from the downturn of bulk cargo international maritime transport,　　Freight rates rise in the benign development of the track. We believe that the maritime transport industry has entered a period of recovery, but the analysis industry should pay attention to the following factors: (1) dry bulk cargo transport business after rapid recovery, the latter willEnter the stage of steady ascent. Since January 2009, China's bulk cargo transport has taken the lead in the global recovery trend, the global bulk cargo also showed a gradual recovery trend to support the gradual recovery of global demand for bulk goods, supporting the BDI index began to rise; And the rise in international ocean shipping prices has led to an average increase in iron ore prices of 15 U.S. dollars per ton, or more than 100 yuan, so that domestic small iron mines will again start a substantial resumption of production, in turn, to curb the import demand for iron ore.　　In addition, the international demand for marine transport is also slowly recovering, Europe, the United States and Japan's economy is also falling and slow recovery, iron ore and coal demand is also in the slow recovery of the rise, it is expected that by 2010 the global economy will be able to gradually out of the decline, into an upward trajectory. (2) from the ocean transport demand and supply relationship analysis, the situation is still relatively serious, 2006-2007 due to the substantial increase in dry bulk transport prices, the global transport industry ordered a large number of new ships, and 2009 global dry bulk cargo demand for a certain slowdown in the total, 2010 will be slightly higher, In 2009, the bulk carrier, which is being built by the global shipyard, will reach 56.9 million tons, more than one times the 2008 volume, and the ship supply increase by 14%, and we predict that the 2009 global dry bulk transport demand is beginning to resume gradually, mainly because China's iron ore imports will continue to increase by about 10%. , Europe, Japan and the United States mineral imports also began to recover gradually, dry bulk cargo transport demand decline significantly narrowed. Comprehensive analysis, 2009, the global dry bulk ship supply growth of 14.7%, while the demand growth is only 2.4%, supply demand is lower than 9, far less than the balance of demand 12-13 levels, a large number of new ships will slow the recovery of the maritime transport market, the medium-term shipping market has repeatedly.　　2010 More new ships will also be launched, so the medium-term bulk transport market will be gradually restored, but also facing the acceleration of ship supply pressure. 3. Investment advice we believe that with the rapid recovery of China's economy and the impact of rising demand for bulk goods such as global coal, the BDI index has risen sharply. Showing signs of an initial recovery in the global economy, China's economy has taken the lead in the upward trend, after the resumption of demand for bulk goods, the demand for oil transport began to stop falling, began to show the initial rise, global container transport in the first quarter of the largest decline in the two quarter decline slightly narrowed, is expected to stop the second half of the decline, Gradually enter the recovery trend. We are optimistic about the medium-term trend of the shipping industry, continue to maintain the level of investment in the marine transport industry as a "prudent recommendation", it is recommended to pay close attention to the "merchant steamer" and other integrated companies, stable demand for oil transport companies, such as "Long voyage oil" and so on, as well as the most flexible demand "China ocean" and other companies