"Short-term economy" in the downturn

In the economic downturn, enterprises have to face the increase in uncertainty, market demand for frequent fluctuations.　　The bullwhip effect in supply chain management will appear continuously in the form of positive and negative sides. Author: Yang Fei since the beginning of 2009, the domestic market has been a general decline in economic data, but after the Spring festival, across the country it stores have a large range of computer LCD display sold off the phenomenon, dealers are generally in a kind of no goods can sell embarrassing situation. The price of each brand liquid crystal display in the market all appear to be 50 yuan to 100 yuan of rise in different degree.　　At present, the liquid crystal display of "shortage of economy" is still continuing, "not afraid to buy more than the goods into the" has become the general consensus of dealers, this situation seems to be the current experience we are experiencing a contraction of global consumer demand, forming a stark contrast. The reason for this shortage of goods is called the Bullwhip effect (bullwhip Effect). Bullwhip effect refers to a demand variation amplification phenomenon in the supply chain. When the flow of information flows from the end client to the original vendor side, because can not effectively realize information sharing, make information distorted, and gradually amplified, resulting in more and more demand information fluctuations, this information distortion amplification in the graph is very much like a whipping of cattle whip, so it is known as the "bullwhip effect."　　We can be in the upstream of the supplier to the tip of the cow whip, downstream users compared to the root of the cattle whip, once the root jitter, the amplitude of the transmission to the end of the tip will appear very large fluctuations. In this economic downturn, because each node in the supply chain has a signal of shrinking market demand and the overall expected decline of the industry, such signals will be amplified with the process of conduction to upstream enterprises, which eventually makes the real market demand be doubled when reaching the top producers of the supply chain.　　As the McKinsey quarterly notes in this spring, "building a flexible supply chain for uncertain times", "when supply partners in the supply chain anticipate a fall in demand, the supply chain will be disconnected from the actual consumption in the downstream, which is the real portrayal of the current supply and demand situation in the LCD market. The financial crisis of 2007, which gradually passed its negative effects to the real economy in 2008, led to a significant number of IT vendors encountering export order cancellations, and LCD panel manufacturers. A large number of export-led LCD panels were forced into the domestic market and the number of domestic orders dropped, leading to a sharp drop in the price of domestic displays in the fourth quarter.　　Faced with both internal and external dilemma, panel manufacturers have reduced inventories, reduced production, and even dismissed some workers. But with the end of consumption, the beginning of the school and 51 holidays and other consumption of the strong period approaching, the domestic market for IT products, the demand has gradually appeared, which makes the supply chain, including the channel operators on the various node enterprises are unprepared. According to some dealers, although the upstream panel factory has begun to work overtime to produce, but the display shortage, which starts from years later, will not be eased until at least the middle of the year. However, the bullwhip effect may then play a role. When the suppliers in the existing inventory in short supply, it is bound to significantly improve product purchase volume. While this change is driven by market demand, there will also be an increase in inventories in order to avoid further shipments. This double lifting order after the transmission of all levels of supply chain, the real demand for the market will be amplified by the mutation.　　If the upstream manufacturer cannot analyze the market demand correctly at this time, it may make wrong production decision, but this time it is not underestimate, but overestimate the market demand. In the case of LCD panel factory, the corresponding to the current production of products should be 3 months to 6 months after the market demand, rather than the present.　　But with the end of the festival, the school tide and 51 consumption, enterprises should make a more cautious forecast of the IT market demand after the year. In the economic downturn, enterprises have to face the increase in uncertainty, market demand for frequent fluctuations. The bullwhip effect in supply chain management will appear continuously in the form of positive and negative sides. Enterprises in the face of this complex situation, whether to make production increase or cut production decisions, can not blindly according to the trend of downstream enterprises, but to follow the supply chain downward, through a variety of ways to collect and analyze the real demand for end consumers, and at any time to adjust their own strategy preparation. At the same time, the domestic and foreign economic forms, policy guidance, industry growth space and structural changes in the industry should be included in the comprehensive consideration in order to avoid being swayed by bullwhip effect.