Short-term market or callback to 2,400 points around the year shocks upward pattern unchanged

CITIC Securities Research Department Strategy Group we believe that the resumption of IPOs may have a certain impact on the stock market operation in the short term, but if the market-oriented reform of the IPO system can advance smoothly, then the macro-economy is getting better, the policy is stimulating constantly, and the fund is on the big side,　　The overall pattern of the annual a-share market oscillation is still unchanged. IPO restart will still hit the market China Securities Regulatory Commission May 22 issued the "Further reform and improve the new issue system guidance advice (draft)", launched four reform measures.　　For the IPO restart time, the SFC said that the draft will be completed on June 5 to solicit comments, the formal release will be arranged for new issues, and will be the first to start the board, the reform of the IPO system to take a phased, step-by-step implementation, gradually improve the way. We believe that the market-oriented reform of the IPO system is beneficial to the long-term healthy development of a-shares. From the historical point of view, the two-step inquiry and the unreasonable purchase system is the main issue of the domestic IPO system, but also led to a long period of time China's IPO discount rate has been high, the United States and Britain and other developed countries in the issuance of new shares discount basically around 15%-18%, and China is 2006 China's IPO on the first day of the average increase of 83%, since 2007 up to 140%.　　Excessive IPO discount rate can only be completed through market-oriented reform, although this announcement of the reform measures is small, but also lower than the general expectations of the market, but its embodiment of the market direction is correct, but also for a share market long-term healthy development and build a stable system support. The market may worry that the failure to achieve a "market capitalization" or "subscription by Account" will lead to a fundamental improvement in the IPO system, in our view, whether it is a "market capitalization system" for placing a corresponding proportion of new shares in the market value of the shares held by investors in the two-tier markets, or modelled on the way in which the Hong Kong city is to be ridiculed by each person, To ensure that each effective purchase account to obtain a certain amount of new shares of the "subscription by Account" system, in fact, it also presupposes that the primary market is the logical precondition of the risk-free return market, and that the way of the average distribution may at the same time guarantee the fair sacrifice the market efficiency, cause "the whole nation hits new" Upsurge, unfavorable to the healthy development of the two level market.　　Therefore, the current gradual reform of the IPO system is more conducive to the gradual realization of the market of distribution pricing, although the short-term may impact on a-share market, but long-term will be conducive to the healthy development of a-share market. Our overall judgment is: IPO Restart in the short term may have a certain impact on the A-share market, but if the IPO system of market-oriented reform can be successfully pushed forward, then in the macro-economic gradually better, the policy of stimulating continuous, the fund face a large background,　　The overall pattern of the annual a-share market oscillation is still unchanged. In addition, historical experience also shows that the issue of new shares does not necessarily lead to long-term market decline, the July 2006 a-share market rebounded to 1700 points, ICBC more than 40 billion of the new issue although the marketUneasy, but its good performance after the listing eventually led to a rise in the index.　　The financing plans released by major U.S. banks in early May after the stress tests did not lead to a sharp fall in stocks. In fact, the actual impact of IPO restart is related to the market environment of a particular time window. In view of the export recovery and the real estate industry chain conduction still takes time, and the A-share market has experienced a relatively large rebound in the special circumstances, in the market internal adjustment needs of the common role, the IPO will restart the news may be to the short-term market formation must be suppressed.　　However, from the whole year, the main factors that affect the long-term operation of the market are still the actual process of economic recovery, the confidence of China's economic "guarantee eight" success is enough to maintain the overall pattern of market shocks upward. The main trend of economic recovery in the short term or repeated first, from the external economy, the U.S. economic data has been a certain amount of repetition. The recent release of U.S. economic data has been consistently lower than expected, only the May real estate market leading index HMI and the April economic lead indicator is the only bright spot, the new housing operating rate (the actual release of 458,000 households under the expected), construction permits (the actual release of 494,000 less than 530,000 of the expected) is lower than the expected value.　　The number of first-time jobless remains high in the auto industry, and the correction in the previous period has also risen. Second, the PMI index has monthly benefits, and there is no need to worry too much about short-term declines. At home, some investors are worried about the likely fall in the May PMI index, with only two of the country's most commonly used index: credit growth and PMI, credit growth is flat, and the future is mainly structural adjustment, not gross growth, This makes the trend of the short-term PMI index prominent.　　But the PMI changes in the monthly benefits, generally speaking 5,6,7 three months will be lower, which is consistent with the law of economic activity. Third, the National Adjustment Center announced the average daily output reduction narrowed, in line with expectations. The fall in mid-May (-0.6%) was significantly narrower than in early (-3.9%) (the coastal upturn was better than that of high-energy-consuming areas), mainly due to the low cardinality of the day from 2008 and the 5·12 earthquake in Sichuan last year.　　We continue to maintain our original judgment: in May, with the increase in steel and electrolytic aluminum production, the decline in electricity consumption will be narrowed and continued to the end of the year, but the first half of the overall still negative, the second half to positive growth, the year to maintain a 2.7% growth. Finally, there is no fundamental change in the support of the policy side. The Government has recently launched a series of economic stimulus policies, suggesting that the support for the economic recovery is still being strengthened.　　Especially noteworthy is that the new Energy revitalization plan may be introduced in the near future, the domestic total investment in the new energy sector is expected to exceed 3 trillion yuan, 2020 years wind power will reach more than 100 million-kilowatt, which will give rise to investment opportunities in the relevant areas. remain volatile throughout the year review the market's impetus since the end of last years, during which monetary policy was relaxed, counter-cyclical government investment and economic expectations changedThree factors such as good are the main drivers of market rebound.　　At present, in the early rebound on the basis of a reasonable valuation, the future market impetus needs to be converted to the real economic recovery and the fundamental improvement of listed companies. In the short term, export recovery still takes time, and real estate, automobile and other terminal consumption has not fully transmitted to the industrial intermediary industry, which temporarily slowed the economic recovery process.　　In the light of the global economy, the recent economic data of the developed economies, represented by the United States, have also been repeated, which determines that there is some demand for consolidation in the short-term market. In this context, the possibility of short-term refinancing will put greater pressure on investor sentiment, the Shanghai Composite Index may be back to 2400 to regain support. However, based on China's positive policy environment considerations, the possibility of a successful recovery in the future fundamentals is still relatively large, maintain the annual stock market shocks upward pattern is expected to remain unchanged.