Shusong: Asset bubble formation conditions have been

Shusong The wealth of the forum credit Crazy growth, the stock market Changyang constantly, the property price soaring, the first half of China's economic trend beyond the expectations of many experts, then the second half of the macroeconomic trend?　　July 12, sponsored by our financial Weekly, Shenzhen Development Bank----------------------------------------------------------- Shusong that, in the current international market liquidity is unusually abundant and domestic money credit growth, the prerequisite for the formation of domestic asset bubbles has been, but in the case of CPI still negative, there is still room for the central bank to implement interest rate hike.　　As a response, Shusong suggested easing the pace of capital bubbles by loosening controls, expanding direct financing and investing abroad.　　Easy monetary policy should also be "degree" in order to deal with the financial crisis of the Hundred years, the current monetary policy is quite loose. Since November 9 last year the Central Committee and the State Council launched a timely 4 trillion yuan stimulus plan, led the bank's rapid credit delivery. The boom in credit growth is the only one in the history of banks. 1-May is 5.83 trillion yuan, 1-June is 7.36 trillion yuan, is the same period last year to launch several times.　　Even after the rest of the second half of the bank, the first half of the credit is 7.36 trillion yuan, the year only to put so much, than the 2008 credit growth of 24%. Shusong that the so-called moderately loose monetary policy refers to a more appropriate monetary easing than the real economic growth needs. According to 2009 's 8% G D p growth, within 4% of the CPI growth target, the real economy needs of the monetary delivery and moderate easing, the roughly 16-18% growth should be appropriate, can be said to be moderately loose.　　But from now on, even if the bank does not lend in the second half of the year, only the first half of the credit growth in 2008 than the annual credit growth is 24% higher, so, after the financial crisis, the impact of the gradual stability of the moderate easing policy should have a basic "degree." Excessive credit is being absorbed by Non-trade Shusong said that the current domestic asset bubble formation of internal and external conditions have been basically available.　　External conditions refers to international, the current international capital flow pattern is very similar to the 1997, 1998 before the time, the developed countries in Europe and the United States to adjust, the cost of capital is low, which led to a large number of international capital flows to Asia, to the Hong Kong market, to China. But the current state of capital easing has drawn the Fed's attention, and the tone of the recent Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Committee meeting is no longer a mere easing of monetary policy, but rather a timely adjustment of loose policies based on liquidity conditions and balance sheet changes. But until the United States really formed a new leading industry, the massive return of capital is hard to form. But the current situation is that theWhat is the dominant industry in the economy, the world still does not form a unified view. Taking President Obama's inaugural address, for example, the real mention of the economy is new energy.　　Recently put forward the so-called risk-aversion plan, hope the global response. The so-called internal conditions, is the rapid growth of credit. China is now very much like the 2003, 2004, 2005, credit growth is fast, this time faster than the last, prices in the short term has not risen pressure, the real economy to improve performance, but still very difficult.　　The balance of payments surplus in the accumulation, the formation of a relatively stable currency appreciation of the expectations, a combination of several conditions for domestic asset bubbles have a relatively large role in promoting.　　In terms of finance, the whole Chinese economy we divide it into two departments, one is called the tradable sector, one is called the Non-trade sector, the trade sector refers to the trade can be priced, such as mineral water, notebooks, at present the price of the United States to go down, the prices of trade goods is unlikely to rise significantly. A lot of credit will be absorbed by any place, and it will be absorbed by Non-trade goods. Non-trade goods are not priced through trade, and roads, bridges, facilities, electricity, real estate and equities are non-trade goods. The effect of the rapid growth of credit, perhaps the real estate business themselves did not think. By the end of last year, a lot of real estate developers in January this year, the current sales progress account of how long the cash can support, ready to sell the stake, or the project sold, or ready to reduce prices.　　As a result, the high speed of credit, the promotion of non-trade goods, pushing money into the real estate market, happiness came too suddenly. How can the asset bubble be more than how to tame asset bubbles?　　First of all, we should loosen the threshold regulation of industry entry and introduce liquidity into the real economy. A lot of money, is from the export sector, the bank credit after the acquisition, can not find the growth prospects of investment channels, looking for to invest in real estate, we must relax the industry too high approval threshold, so that private capital into education, medical, financial and other services,　　The entity industry that does not bring social capital into the real economy and social progress can only spin around the capital market. This proposal concrete implementation to the operation level, is launches the gem. The gem will not lead to the diversion of funds, on the contrary, can be a large number of resources into the real economy, into a real wealth creation process. The significance of gem is not in the hundreds of listed companies, but in the model effect they formed, the effect of the formation of the capital structure adjustment, may be listed only 1000 gem enterprises, but many social capital to small and medium-sized enterprises to find the listed enterprise investment, in accordance with the standards of listing improvement, the result of these SME financing environment improved,　　Their debt ratios have been reduced and corporate governance improved.　　Secondly, it is also one of the key points to solve the bottleneck of local government financing by means of marketization. From the current infrastructure financing can be seen, bond financing will be to solve the investment cycle of infrastructure projects long, inadequate information disclosure and other defectsEffective tools.　　In our country, the infrastructure projects, such as enterprise debt and medium-term bills of People's Bank of China and the Reform and Development Commission, basically have the evaluation of the project itself and the evaluation of intermediary agencies, but also have the disclosure of information, forming a certain self-restraint force.　　This gives us an important insight into whether we can take advantage of the opportunity to use ample liquidity to develop China's direct finance market, especially the municipal bond market, and to allow the market to constrain it, and not allow other banks and government agencies to approve it.　　In addition, it is also important to further promote outward investment. In fact, as China has traded hundreds of billions of dollars of countries, China is not the first, nor the last one, Germany and Japan are hundreds of billions of dollars of countries, how no one to find them trouble.　　The current account has a large surplus, but the capital external investment balance, so the pressure on the currency does not appreciate, sometimes foreign investment than the trade surplus is larger, so that the country's enterprises in the global allocation of resources, now need to improve the place is the long-term formation of the foreign exchange Management system.　　On-site question-and-answer CPI determines interest rate trend property bubble may be bigger than 2007 audience: What will the state interest rate be in the second half or next year? Shusong: I personally think that depends mainly on the trend of prices, so when C pi up, interest rates should maintain a high level of vigilance. If we have to simplify, we must look at the price of agricultural products, and then simplify the price of pork, pork price increases, interest rate policy will be vigilant. In the first half of this year, there has been a widespread misconception that many people say there is room to cut interest rates because the US is 0 interest rates, We still have a 2.25 deposit rate, which is typically the wrong comparison, comparing apples to pears, China's interest rate is the bank's listed retail interest rates, customers to the bank to do business interest rate, the European and American developed countries interest rate is the wholesale rate, is the interbank market interest rate, our inter-bank market interest rate and Europe and the United States are similar, if the retail listing rate than the European and American claims　　0 interest rates are lower, for example, the interest rate on 70 percent first mortgages is lower than that of HSBC and Citigroup, which are known as 0 interest rates in developed countries, and there is room for adjustment to be made. I'm not too sure. By cutting interest rates can stimulate consumption, mainly the adjustment of national income, improve the income of residents to improve social security, can not cut through the improvement of people's consumption, cut interest rate after the decrease in income, may also reduce income.　　I personally do not agree with the idea of rate cuts, but to pay high attention to the direction of interest rate adjustment after the positive price.　　Audience: Will inflation become a concern or a serious problem in the second half of next year or sooner? Shusong: From this year's figures, because 1-June CPI are negative, so the positive to the four quarter, the whole year is a mild CPI figures. Inflation is not a major challenge and problem this year, and this year is a sustainable recovery. China's inflation problem cannot be divorced from the viewThe globalization of the country is very high, first of all depends on the inflation of America, the Fed's dominant view is that inflation is not just about money, because the money is more, the flow is slow, everyone panics, the original printing 100 yuan of notes turnover five times is 500 yuan, now printing 500 Yuan ticket circulation is also 500 yuan, America's lack of capacity, no matter how stimulus, there will be no inflation, from the past history of the United States, the central bank after the massive credit in the crisis, no one once after the recovery of liquidity, often with high-speed inflation ended, theoretically can, But the expected changes in the market are pushing the economy faster than the central bank's decision, and many, including Mr. Buffett, are adamant that America's fast credit squeeze will inevitably lead to future inflation, from any financial crisis to a balance sheet crisis, with asset parties shrinking,　　The debt is not reduced by a penny, can not say after the crisis, borrow deep development 1 million yuan, the crisis has shrunk 500,000 yuan, how to repair the balance sheet, their own reserves to reduce consumption, the second is by issuing banknotes diluted, the current possibility of a larger, imported inflation on our impact is very large.　　Audience: What's your view on the future of the real estate industry? Shusong: I fear this time the real estate bubble may be bigger than 2007, because the local government has played a positive role in it, this time the local government financing platform ability depends largely on the income of the land, should maintain high vigilance. China's real estate market, strictly speaking, from the 1999 mortgage to now did not experience a complete shuffle cycle, last year, even the adjustment in the end of a very short period of time to spend the adjustment period, from the world's average experience, when the real estate inventory to nine months, the real estate judgment is into a bull market,　　In many large cities, the inventory of housing is only enough to sell two or three months, slow real estate developers will be swarmed, in such a short period of time, the reproduction of flour sold more than bread. As a director of the Central Enterprise Company in Hong Kong, a lot of enterprises do not get land, crazy time, are not real estate enterprises to take the land, Hangzhou auction, a beat on the flow, the result was the textile enterprises in Shaoxing took away, or was taken away by the pharmaceutical companies, we think that the real estate money has entered, The result is that the flour is sold more than the bread, and the price of the floor is the same as that of the new house sold next to it. This situation has appeared in Beijing, the recent Beijing's new king, floor premium is 16,000 yuan/square meters, with the next to the same place, they said that the expected one or two years when the market, to sell 30,000 yuan/　　square meters to make money, to be highly vigilant. Overall co-ordination: Chei Yanxia This period of implementation: Rock Guan Lin Conference execution: Southern Metropolis Daily Planning Department of this version of the picture and interview: Luo Guan intern Ye Jie Pure