Shusong: Real estate is more lethal than stock market

From the current situation, China seems to be increasingly clear on the Japanese road.　　I have judged that this round of the real estate bubble is higher than 2007, and it turns out that I am right. After the housing reform began in 1998, the characteristics of the housing were basically Shusong, about 2005, 2006, and more and more the characteristics of the investment goods. My argument is based on China's real estate sales, real estate prices in the initial stage of marketing, and we do financial investment often to see the M0, M1, M2 velocity of money in these financial indicators have no relationship.　　But 2005, 2006 years later, they and M0, M1, M2 of the correlation is increased rapidly, that is to say, it is increasingly manifested as a strong investment characteristics. Comparing the real estate market with the stock market will enhance our understanding of the market. Look for similar places first. One is that these two are very important characteristics of the investment is that it is affected by the main macro-financial indicators is very direct, very strong. Or more directly, is to see the growth of M1, M2. If the growth is faster, the more optimistic, if it has fine-tuning, the real estate market will be adjusted.　　Second, the main body of the real estate market and the main body of the stock market show a very unique preference of risk income. Both of the unilateral city characteristics are very strong, China's stock market so far, or unilateral city. For the most part, almost all participants benefited only during the run-up to the stock market. The real estate market is the same, the interests of all parties involved in the result of a very strong unilateral market, the interests of all parties could not withstand the fall in house prices. If anyone says house prices will fall, someone will besiege him, which is not a mature real estate market.　　How to change the characteristics of this unilateral city, so that the market can withstand a little fluctuation, is now a big topic. The real estate market has leverage, and the stock market has so far not. Stocks are still trading at firm prices, and 1 million can buy only 1 million of the stock. Real estate market, there is a down payment ratio, there is a magnification. So the real estate fluctuations, in fact, more destructive, than the stock market larger. Just now there is no real real estate fluctuations, affected by the financial crisis, there would have been a bit of fluctuations in the momentum, and was 4 trillion of the strong stimulus driven up. In hindsight, the 4 trillion economic stimulus, in addition to the country's investment in railways, roads, infrastructure benefits, real estate is the largest beneficiary market. Another difference, the stock market so far, its volatility has limited impact on the real economy.　　Real estate is not the same, the passivity of real estate has a great impact on macroeconomics. Real estate as an investment, there are many direct analogy with the stock market place, both the same place, there are many different places.　　Of particular concern is that during the period of rapid urbanization and industrialization, it is more likely to lead to asset bubbles during the period of demographic dividend, especially in the real estate market. Many people interpret the Japanese real estate bubble, the stock market bubble, which is very important because the yen international. A national currency to be internationalized, the natural interest rate should be marketable. The interest rate marketization will increase the cost, the individual enterprise will increase the loan. The premature interest rate and the marketization of the exchange rate caused the asset bubble in Japan during the internationalization of currency. From the current situation, China seems to be increasingly clear on the Japanese road. I have judged that this round of the real estate bubble is higher than 2007, and it turns out that I am right.