Signs of improvement in export tax rebate policy adjustment may be postponed

The General administration of customs recently released data shows that June China's export decline greatly narrowed, and the chain of higher growth. Experts point out that exports have shown signs of improving, and that the four quarter is growing or coming.　　Industry insiders believe that further adjustment of the export tax rebate policy is not a big margin.　　Four-quarter export or current growth of traffic bank research researcher Liu Nenghua pointed out that advanced economies such as Europe and the United States have some positive signals, and the bottom of the economy may have to start in the three quarter of this year, the end of 2009 or early 2010, the recovery process, China's exports are expected to go out at the　　Industrial Securities Chief macro Analyst Dongxiangan also pointed out that the manufacturing Purchasing managers index PMI in the new export Order index for 7 consecutive months, will gradually reflect in the second half of the Year-on-year import and export data, the four quarter of this year, China's exports are likely to rise year-on-year. In fact, China's labor-intensive products have taken the lead in the turn, data show that June, China's main labor-intensive products exports year-on-year decline is less than the overall decline of 21.8% level. Among them, apparel and clothing accessories exports 45.86 billion U.S. dollars, down 8.5%; footwear exports 12.91 billion U.S. dollars, down 4.3%, furniture exports 11.76 billion U.S. dollars, down 9.8%; plastic products export 6.57 billion U.S. dollars, down 7.1%; luggage exports 5.89 billion U.S. dollars, down 7%. Over the same period, China's mechanical and electrical products exports 306.67 billion U.S. dollars, down 21.2% year-on-year.　　Among them, electrical and electronic products exports 124.3 billion U.S. dollars, down 22.7%; machinery equipment exports 103.88 billion U.S. dollars, down 18.9%.　　Fan, director of the China Reform Foundation's National Economic Research Institute, said that with the emergence of a series of policies to promote import and export policy, foreign trade would have a turnaround this year, with a continuing upward trend next year.　　The adjustment space of export drawback policy recently, the tax department learned that since last August, China's 7 times since the increase in export tax rebate rate, in the total of more than 13,000 tax goods, already has 15% achieved the full export tax rebate. Data show that after the recent 7 consecutive increases in export tax rebate rate, in a total of more than 13,000 tax number of exports, has 1971 tax number of goods to achieve a full export tax rebate, accounting for the total of 15%. Industry insiders believe that, in the long run, the direction of development is still in a stable manner to implement the zero tax rate of export commodities.　　But at present, the export drawback policy still has the rich macro-control color, this goal cannot realize in the short term.　　Zhang, a researcher at the Ministry of Economic forecasting at the National Information Center, points out that exports are now at the bottom of the stage, the export situation will not deteriorate further, the four quarter may start to improve, the urgency of policy adjustment is greatly reduced. Zhang, director of the National Development and Reform Commission's Foreign Economic Research Institute, also said that the export tax rebate policy can indeed relieve the pressure of enterprises, but foreign customers will ask us to let, enterprises can not fully enjoy the export tax rebate policy, relative to the adjustment of export tax rebate, directly to the enterpriseIndustry tax cuts may be more effective.　　Xinyu, a researcher at the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, told reporters that the export tax rebate rate should not be further improved, because the effect is limited and the current adjustment space is limited. In the 2009, China's fiscal balance was strained. The national fiscal 2009 budget is accounted for by 10% of income growth and 20% per cent of expenditure growth. The budget deficit is 950 billion. The deficit rate, calculated at 8% per cent of the national economic growth rate, is 3%, and is still in the secure line. However, according to the first half of the fiscal revenue trend, the completion of the annual budget is very difficult.　　If revenue grew 5% and spending rose by 25%, the annual fiscal deficit would reach $1.365 trillion, with a deficit rate of 4.2% per cent, if revenue grew by 0%, spending rose by 25% and the deficit would exceed 5%, according to Wei Fengchun, Citic's chief macro analyst. It is generally believed that the deficit rate of more than 3% in developing countries, systemic risk will increase, inflation, exchange rate depreciation, capital flight, asset selling can occur. These risks are unthinkable for China.　　So experts say there is little room for further government tax cuts. Industry insiders said that although the export tax rebate in the short term to help companies through the crisis, but can not expect fiscal and tax policies to help export enterprises to maintain a lagging business model. In the long run, export enterprises should increase the intensity of commodity structure adjustment, accelerate industrial upgrading, improve commodity technology content, and fundamentally promote smooth and healthy development of foreign trade.