Sina Finance and economics

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Everyone Sina Netizen, everybody good!  Host Chowa: Dear Sina netizens are good, welcome to our Sina this afternoon, "close broadcast", I am the host Chowa. We are going to do a special edition of "Stock Market" today, first connect the Shanghai studio.  We invited guests today from the Zhejiang Institute of Securities Research Director Mr. Jianshihua, welcome your arrival, with our friends to say hello.  Jianshihua: Hello, everyone.  Host Literature: Another is the Zhejiang Merchants Securities registered analyst Mr. Zhang Yanbing, welcome your arrival, with netizens say hello.  Zhang Yanbing: Hello, everyone. Moderator Chowa: Today is very fortunate to invite two analysts, first of all, we first pay attention to the situation today's market. Today Sheng closed at 2645.26 points, up 5.37 points, the increase is 0.2%, turnover is 108 billion yuan.  Shen Chengzhi closed at 10273.23 points, up 21.08 points, the increase is 0.21%, turnover is 61.46 billion yuan.  First of all, I would like to ask Mr. Zhang, what do you think of the closing situation today? Zhang Yanbing: Today's closing is a small, shrinking cross star.  From the Thursday and Friday trends, found that the market again at 2,600 points and to 2,650 points around a hesitation and disagreement, this position should be said that the market in Tuesday, Wednesday after the normal market psychological response. This week, this week is also interesting, the opening of this week is 2,646 points, the closing today is 2,645 points, from the whole week it is a cross star, the entity only 1 points of the cross star. Especially in Monday, after a larger decline, Tuesday, Wednesday, a rapid emergence of a high innovation. This situation can actually reflect the market itself is still very healthy, or very strong.  We cannot because Thursday, Friday two days trend a little bit weak, feel that this market is not the end, next week can continue to be optimistic. Moderator Chowa: We can look forward to the next week, we look at the overall trend this week is good.  But there is a problem, now Sheng has rebounded 1000 points, you think the future rebound space will be how big? Jianshihua: Overall, the market has indeed risen from 1664 points 1000 points, 1000 points should be in the early stages of the process, most of the stock is performing very well, many reached the level of the bull market. In six months, the most important is a number of theme stocks, especially the theme of new energy investment stocks, the performance of the incisively, is a small bull market atmosphere.  But recently, as the theme of investment stocks rose little, the market did not dare to Shen them, but recently launched the Chinese oil as a representative of the big blue chips, especially PetroChina this week performance is very good.  Host Chowa: You just said PetroChina rally this week is the main factor supporting the market, do you think China's oil can continue to strengthen? Zhang Yanbing: PetroChina will continue to strengthen next week because PetroChina is facing a good fundamentalsSigns.  First we can see the price of oil, which has already risen from the beginning of the year over 30 dollars to nearly 60 dollars now, which is an international atmosphere. In addition, the May 8 evening issued the "Oil price management measures", after the price of refined oil pricing mechanism, may have a more favorable impact. And we also know that the last time the oil prices were priced around March 25, and after so long, the price of petroleum rose by nearly 40 dollars and about 60%. In this case, according to the policy of the time, we can adjust the price of domestic refined oil when the average price of crude oil in the international market exceeds 40% for 22 consecutive working days.  At present, the domestic product price adjustment again, I think the possibility is very large, so that China's oil and Sinopec will bring more favorable impact. In addition, China's oil is very high this year in fact, we can look at the long-term trend of Chinese oil, at the lowest price this year, basically in the vicinity of 10 yuan, so far it has risen by about 30%. Therefore, it has a relatively large potential for replenishment.  Both fundamentals and technology suggest that PetroChina will push up the index. Moderator Chowa: But some retail friends think that once the oil has risen is a signal of the peak of the market.  Would you like to ask about this? Zhang Yanbing: It should be said that the current market rise so big, indeed very big, already have the pressure of adjustment. But this time not just because the Chinese oil rally will not be the main force to pull high shipments to consider Chinese oil, China's oil rise, it has its own rising background. The specific back of the market deduction is not 28 quotes, or Chinese oil alone performance, we are hard to tell.  But I think China's oil as a relatively important part of the current market, its rise is also reasonable.  Host Chowa: Do you think PetroChina has a great opportunity for development right now? Zhang Yanbing: The market, including analysts, or small and medium-sized investors, is very sensitive to the rise of small and medium oil, each rise will trigger a huge market oscillation.  But I think China's oil can continue to rise, market I believe that in the end will adapt to its rise, habitual rise can, has not been afraid, the back of the rally shows that the market is not over, oil stocks or banking stocks, or the theme of investment stocks, alternating performance, so the market may still be very healthy. Moderator Chowa: For PetroChina we can continue to pay attention to, hope will not have too much impact on everyone. We know that this Monday, the May 11, the country introduced PPI and CPI data, which is a very big thing this week, we specifically look at the data. The National Bureau of Statistics 11th released data shows that April China's consumer price level is the CPI year-on-year decline of 1.5%, and PPI down 6.6%. There was a double drop for the third consecutive month, and the decline was deepening. I'd like to ask Mr Zhan, what do you think of this week's CPI and PPIWhat about the data? Jianshihua: Since February this year, China's CPI and PPI have declined, this month's CPI data, March is 1.2%, this month is 1.5%, there are a number of factors. On the one hand, there are no signs of a full-blown macroeconomic recovery. In addition, the CPI figures for April last year were 8%.  The PPI is the same, and we expect it to have a downward trend, including a downward trend in May, and it is likely to wait until 8 September.  Host Chowa: You think May CPI and PPI will still fall, the real improvement is 8 September.  The increase in the year-on-year decline has also sparked further concerns about deflationary pressures, and do you think we are too worried now?  Jianshihua: Deflationary pressures in fact, we do not see the same from the credit data, including 1-March credit growth is 24.58 trillion, April began to have a decline, from March 8, 9 trillion began a relatively large decline. Moderator Chowa: Equal to the CPI and PPI is only one aspect, we still need to look at other data.  We know that in April at the same time the introduction of an important data, the April new renminbi loan is 591.8 billion yuan, the growth rate reached 29.72%, the first three months, a sharp decline in the trend of high credit growth can continue? Jianshihua: From the point of view of bank lending is still high valuations, and especially the subsequent outflow of large, March down, and the total amount of loans is falling, the structure of the loan is reasonable, from the original 40%, 50% into the current down to 20%. Loan growth in the second quarter, we don't feel like the first quarter, because the first quarter of the loan is not immediately used?  May be two quarters, three quarters to run out.  Moderator Chowa: The first quarter of the data has come out, is 6.1%, many friends are very worried about the first quarter of the data, want to ask you how to view the two-quarter data, because the two-quarter data is likely to come out to determine the economic trend of the year. Jianshihua: 2 Quarterly GDP data, according to our forecasts, in several ways, one is exports, our April exports fell 22.6% year-on-year, this data I think is very important for judging the macro-economy. and January year-on-year view, the export fell 6.9%, the chain look, a little bit of growth. Our entire exports have fallen for 6 consecutive months, with exports accounting for 2% of GDP. At the same time we see good on the one hand, investment growth of 34.5% year-on-year, consumption is also up 4.8% year-on-year.  If exports do not continue to decline in May and June, we should judge GDP to be better than expected. Moderator Chowa: We know RMB each loan increase 5.17 trillion yuan, break through the whole year new 5 trillion bottom line. There has been a voice in the market that says a large chunk of these loans are flowing into the property market and the stock market. From the recent housing and stock market rebound can be reflected, want to ask you how to seeYou want to say that? [Page] Jianshihua: This problem cannot be seen by imagination. I feel that the property market and the stock market, especially since the April, the whole rally has several stages. The first stage, from last November to the beginning of this year, was stimulated by the 4 trillion policy. The first quarter was caused by liquidity.  But this liquidity cannot be said to be caused by bank loans, the industry has data, the bank also has data, through five major interest rate cuts, through a large amount of deposit reserves, the market has a lot of role, market funds into the stock markets, far more than in the bank, so money must flow to the stock market, this flow is very normal.  Moderator Chowa: is also a very normal phenomenon.  Our country's a-share trend many people think is affected by international stock market, the recent rally is also quite good, want to ask you, what do you think of the current U.S. stocks? Jianshihua: Now the U.S. stock market is 500 up 25%, the United States Index has many reasons, one is the United States itself active monetary policy, in addition to the United States real estate gradually bottomed out, there is a slow recovery of the trend of rebound. But it cannot be concluded that the economic crisis is over. A A-share is affected by the U.S. stock, if from the beginning of the year, we feel a A-share is bigger than the U.S. stock. Because from the valuation point of view, the US and the 500 listed companies last year a sharp decline in earnings, valuations suddenly went up, may be higher than the valuation of a shares, which caused a a-share rally.  Can not say a shares are completely affected by the U.S. stock, but may be the U.S. stock by the impact of a-share.  Host Chowa: This question I also want to listen to Zhang Teacher's opinion, do you think a a-share is affected by the U.S. stock? Zhang Yanbing: It should be said that the impact is there, I think it is mainly phased. For example, when the market rose at the beginning of the year, the U.S. stock performance is relatively weak, at that time the domestic obvious performance is relatively strong.  U.S. stocks plummeted, our domestic is also low open high go, which is to say that it affects the most recent period of time, the U.S. stock oscillation for us, because our market rose to 1000 points, some worry, feel the need to repair, at this time may affect relatively large. Moderator Chowa: Another question to ask two guests, the international oil price this week is also a breakthrough in the 60 Dollar pass, is also hovering around 58 U.S. dollars. Do you think this is a sign that the global economy is bottoming out?  Want to ask the director of Zhan. Jianshihua: On the one hand there are many factors. There are factors that are expected of the US to rebound in the economy, including the recovery of China's economy. In addition, the relationship between crude oil and the dollar. The US dollar is expected to depreciate in the future, but oil is rising, and that is the factor that works.  Since the U.S. economy has not really bottomed out, it cannot be judged that the economy is recovering and oil prices are rising. Moderator Chowa: Listen to the analysis of the director of Zhan, we have a certain grasp of the macro-economy in the 09, and then pay particular attention to today's plate situation and we look at today's bio-pharmaceutical stocks have 6, including such as the strengthening of chemical industry, but also the chemical sector is not strong, packageIncluding the media Entertainment unit also has a certain performance today.  We would like to ask Mr. Zhang, what do you think of today's plate situation?  Zhang Yanbing: Today's trading stock is mainly bio-medicine, one is Shandong input-type H1N1 has been diagnosed. In addition, the recent market to the State Council May 13 discussion principle through the "promotion of biological industry to accelerate the development of a number of policies" placed very high expectations, this policy has clearly put the biological industry into a pillar industry in the field of High-tech, And this is the next two years to prepare the 30 billion yuan budget to include major new drug creation, including 11 major projects. This policy is a very big policy to promote the transformation of Chinese pharmaceutical industry and encourage the development of bio-industry. In addition, many of our domestic pharmaceutical companies began to compete in the international market, for example, in the international market, for example, the development of biotechnology based on the ability to be ranked in the top ten in the world. One of the problems we face is the industrialization of scientific research. It is believed that this policy, encouraging social capital investment, may make industry change this embarrassment. The other important point is that the market can keep an eye on the industry. In addition, it is more important to worry about whether the swine flu will continue to increase.  In particular, listed companies announced the development of influenza reagents stock, and Tamiflu was made out, this species can be considered.  In addition, the future will not be with the increase in influenza, masks production of large listed companies will be the market for them, we can pay attention to.  Host Chowa: These plates, stimulated by the swine flu pandemic, are worth paying attention to?  Zhang Yanbing: This plate in recent time should be said to be a more mainstream theme of investment concept.  Host Chowa: For today there is actually a plate is also worth our attention, is the media Entertainment unit in the afternoon volume appeared pulled up, how do you see the media entertainment plate? Zhang Yanbing: Media category It should be the consumption upgrade, it is a relatively strong defensive variety. In fact, other topics have recently been invested, with the possibility of continuing to be active next week, with the exception of media, pharmaceuticals, like new energy, which has recently been sorted out for nearly a week. In other words, in the current market, the system risk is relatively not particularly large, some of the subject of investment, especially I am more optimistic about the price adjustment brought about by the performance of the listed companies to better expectations. This week we looked at the larger-than-Chinese oil, as the price of refined oil was priced, as did the rise in water prices, as well as the bio-medicine pandemic, and the recent performance of coal and steel. This week, airlines and travel were weaker.  Therefore, in the current market appearance box oscillation or strong oscillation process, investors should grasp the theme of investment, and also do not chase high, like the Bio-medicine unit last week suddenly increased volume, immediately adjusted for more than a week, this week also strengthened again. Moderator Chowa: For the plate's rhythm must be grasped well. Today there is a plate in the forefront of the decline, is the non-ferrous metal plate. This plate is not particularly expressive today.Well, what do you think of the future development of non-ferrous metal plate? Zhang Yanbing: non-ferrous Metals should be said to be very strong this year, a very large variety of non-ferrous metal plate fluctuations have such a reason: the impact of an international commodity futures market. Another is the effect of inventory.  If inventories do not fall in April and continue to grow, the economy recovers and downstream industries are not up to expectations. Moderator Chowa: Thank you very much, at the same time I would like to ask Mr Zhan, where do you think we will develop in the future?  What are the sectors that we are concerned about? Jianshihua: First, the full circulation of the market, the general P/E is set at 20 times, and the current P/E is generally 25 times-fold. In particular, the small stock, P/E has now reached 56.1 times times, 56.1 times times the equivalent of December 2007 at the end of the valuation. Small-cap stocks have risen to 65%, and the entire market has risen by only 44%. So, from the trend of the market to see small plate stocks face adjustment, this obvious. Such a high valuation must be supported by high performance, but it is hard to judge whether the performance of listed companies this year is zero or minus or positive, and we are hard to judge by the current macroeconomic data.  As a result, small-plate stocks across the market are at risk of valuation, and the adjustment is obvious. There is also a continuous report of internal transactions, which companies violate the rules, this trend is obvious, the next phase of the stock's subject matter risk is relatively large. The overall market in April gave way to fundamentals, including the performance growth of listed companies. Blue chips like banks, PetroChina, Sinopec This will be performance, the recent banks including real estate, electricity, petrochemical rose better.  At present, especially for the stocks represented by the banks, the valuation is still on the low side.  Host Chowa: Can say in the next stage, may play a role will be the big blue chip?  Jianshihua: Yes, especially recently we have seen the amount of funds issued is also relatively large, it is certainly the market is optimistic about the relatively low valuations, macro-economic side of the better stocks.  Moderator Chowa: The rest of the time we pay attention to today's netizens ask questions.  NET friend: Ask Mr. Zhang to help analyze the future trend of nine cheese Hall, the purchase price 11.06 yuan, how to do? Zhang Yanbing: Nine cheese Hall trend, from February to now two months basically did not rise, no performance and index synchronized rise. But technically, it's basically a strong horizontal plate.  The stock suggested that the investor could continue to hold on, with the potential to continue rising.  NET friend: 600007 China International Trade, today announced May 20 a huge amount of lifting stocks listed, now heavy warehouse quilt 5%, want to ask how to operate it? Zhang Yanbing: This year, the size of the reduction, the market for its views, psychological pressure significantly reduced. At present, we see China international trade this stock, the short-term may also be affected by the news, but it is still a case of a box oscillation pattern. After the proposal investors in 5 and 10 to make a difference between 10 yuan to do the discount processing, the placeis relatively safe.  Moderator Chowa: Time is limited, then pay attention to the last Netizen's question.  NET friend: 600586 Jin Jing can, this stock future how to operate? Zhang Yanbing: Jin Jing Technology is a solar concept of a Super dark horse, in the market is more optimistic about its ultra white glass, will be used in films, batteries, there is a huge potential. But in the short term, the market has gone weak, due to the early gains too large, but the overall momentum is not sufficient.  The stock is also concerned with policies that have a significant impact on the solar industry in the back.  Moderator Chowa: OK, thank you very much two guests to our Sina real Cisco chat room today, but also thanks to the participation of netizens, I hope that we will continue to pay attention to the special edition of the stock market in the next Friday, thank you two guests, goodbye! (End of chat)
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