Intermediary transaction SEO diagnosis Taobao guest Cloud host technology Hall
Any thing, when everyone is talking about it, may have entered the bubble period. This assertion is likely to coincide with the development of Weibo.
Announcing the latest financial news, Chao announced that the registered users reached 250 million. However, the independent data did not give him face, showing that Weibo has entered the fatigue period, lost six months before the rush.
While it is not yet possible to tell whether the fatigue period is periodic or persistent, it is not too abrupt to think about how much value the microblog is carrying.
First let's use Alexa, look at the micro-blog data:
Alexa Analysis: User stickiness in decline
Although the Alexa system has been questioned, it is still the most common analysis tool on the network, especially in the analysis of the trend is very reliable.
Next, let's look at the growth of Sina Weibo. In terms of traffic rankings, when Sina Weibo users reached 100 million in March, it was still in a phase of rapid growth. So the doubling of users by August can be expected.
However, after August, Sina Weibo's traffic rankings have not increased. Even if three months later, Chao said Sina registered users more than 50 million, but in the data, but the slightest look at these new people bring the flow.
Where are their traffic? Let's look at the next picture.
The second figure shows the number of pages viewed by each user, and it is clear from the figure that after entering September, the number of pages viewed by each user in Sina Weibo has shown a downward trend.
In other words, although the new user, but the user's stickiness decreased, the number of visits decreased, so the total traffic ranking did not grow.
If you look at the time each user stays on the site, the downward trend will be more pronounced, and the decline is close to 1/3 compared with the peak at the end of July.
Although we cannot yet judge that this decline is persistent, or temporary (some people think that Sina can increase the momentum through the promotion of rapid growth, I think it is possible, but not worth it, because the increase in promotional efforts, although it can obtain a certain amount of traffic, but the marginal value of new traffic has been very low. The first to join is often the most valuable group, when the group was circled in, the rest of the increase in the flow of revenue for Sina has little significance. , but it is clear that Sina Weibo has entered a period of fatigue. Its users are still increasing, but the stickiness of the user has dropped, and there is less time to log on to the site.
Recall that each site in the high-speed development, will fall to the low stage, we have the reason to worry about the growth of Sina Weibo in the future will be a more visible decline.
More embarrassing is that Sina in September just launched a new version of micro-blog, the purpose is to increase the stickiness of users, and from the data, one months after the stickiness of the downward trend has not improved, at least, the one months of the new version has not achieved its due effect.
Users who are in the loop: The last people to pay
Generally speaking, the website development divides into two stages, the first stage is to increase the user quantity, the second stage is to do the revenue.
From the current position of Cao Chao, has been to do the stage of revenue. This is also from the new version of the design of micro-blog can be seen, it increased the game, the increase in the micro-currency function, but also may increase the advertising system.
So, can Sina successfully circle the income?
Unfortunately, the number of income is often related to the company's characteristics, Sina's characteristics: its users are naturally unwilling to pay.
Compared with other websites that have gone to high value-added users, the people in Sina's circle have not only not paid the bill, but also difficult to serve.
As I have analyzed before, there are no more than 5 million groups of valuable people in Weibo, that is, stars and idols. This group is the main content provider, and if served poorly, it means Weibo loses its core.
However, these people are always accept the appearance of the main, reach out to lift the feet need someone to take care of, if they want money equals kill them. Let them play the game is not realistic, because their time is precious, start to send a few microblogging is already can see you, where there is extra time?
So this group hope not, Sina out people can, want money not.
What about the rest of the group? For example, Tencent relies on a silent majority to pay for their income. Why not Sina?
Because Sina's users have formed the habit of not paying money.
No matter how Sina wants to make Weibo independent, but it is still only the extension of the main station, to the majority of Weibo is to see the news, the news people do not pay the habit.
Some people will ask: micro-blog joined the IM function, joined the game, and even designed the micro-currency, if it can attract people to play the game is also very good. That's a good thing to say, but it's difficult to implement.
Although some people have started to use letters function chat, but most people if you want to chat, or with the help of QQ and MSN, as for playing games, will generally go to specialized websites, will not be in Sina.
And the most unreliable is to rely on the micro-currency charges, after the Alipay and Tencent, it seems difficult to have other home to make a general-purpose payment tool, especially in the case of insufficient stickiness, more difficult to consider.
If we turn history, we will find that Sina's main station, Sina's blog system has also experienced the rapid development of users, will also be around the main function of the development of peripheral products, such as chat tools, community functions, and so on, but most of these functions have gone, lack of stickiness.
If Sina wants to get rid of such fate, in advertising and promotion may wish to emphasize its entertainment function, do not emphasize the media function, but I still doubt the effect of doing so. Finally, Sina Weibo is likely to still be the media to earn advertising money, so it can earn a lot, is enough.
Most likely results: 5 million words of chatter and hundreds of millions of spectators, as well as complex foam systems
About 5 million words of chatter and hundreds of millions of spectators, I have said, no longer stressed.
Here's a bubble system, or a speculative group: the microblogging operators.
If the network also has drums to spread the flower of Bo silly game, then those so-called grassroots micro-bo control, is a group of people playing with fire.
Each system produces a certain bubble system, but eventually the bubbles are squeezed clean, and the bubbles find that their hard-earned "cause" is ultimately based on sand.
Baidu's bubble is those bidding ranked counties and cities agents. Agents most of the time, the network is everywhere they send posts. But after the mature Baidu model, the amount of agents needed is very small, most people are forced to change careers.
Taobao bubble is those who do virtual goods trading, and hype credit, especially virtual goods transactions can play out the nature of MLM, is also a good invention. But now their days have become more and more sad, it is estimated that the time to disappear.
Sina Weibo's bubble is called grassroots micro-blogging manipulator. When the media to the full strength of the report, the so-called reprint what is said, is that those who want to get rich into the time, there will be someone to use people want to get rich mentality began to hype, people think money is very easy.
There are some grey areas in China's network, it is relatively easy to make money, but these can make money is related to the field, it is to keep pulling heads to maintain. For example, the so-called posting money, when heard that post money, someone began to university and Internet cafes pull people, began to form a complex hierarchy, but once the smoke dispersed, people will find that most people do not get anything, only a few of the spire may be able to profit, and most of them boast.
I have seen a foreign students come to Beijing to fight, strayed into a so-called public relations company, quickly from simplicity into a Station, all day to do planning to make a lot of money, and means is nothing but in the forum, microblogging, blog, etc to send some boring posts, such people mixed for a few years, and other bubbles disappear, found just wasted a few years of youth, When a few years cannon fodder, then even regret is late.
There is nothing special about the operators on Sina Weibo who simply put the tools they use elsewhere on the web to Twitter. In the end, they will prove that they do not have much value and are worthless at all.